There isn\u2019t much separation at the top of the free-agent market for starting pitchers. The class lacks a megastar, and multiple scouts labeled it as a flawed group, leading some organizations to more aggressively explore answers on the trade market. The starters available in free agency, however, can certainly at least help lead a rotation.<\/p>\n
The industry consensus has Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Dylan Cease and Ranger Su\u00e1rez as the top available free-agent starters. But in what order? Who is the best investment? And who rounds out a top five? That\u2019s where things become debatable.<\/p>\n
So, The Athletic asked 10 pro scouts to rank those four starters \u2014 Valdez, Imai, Cease and Su\u00e1rez. We also asked them to throw in a fifth name to round out the top five and to explain each decision. As expected, the results were close.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s definitely no clear number one for me,\u201d one National League scout said. \u201cCatch me on a different day and I might have a completely different ranking just because there isn\u2019t a huge gap between one through four or even one through five. It\u2019s tough to rank them.\u201d<\/p>\n
Below are the results from our scout rankings, which awarded four points for a first-place vote, three points for a second-place vote, two points for a third-place vote and one point for a fourth-place vote.<\/p>\n
RkPitcherPts (1st)<\/p>\n
1<\/p>\n
31 (5)<\/p>\n
One of the five scouts who ranked Valdez first offered a succinct analysis based on a track record of durability and consistency: \u201cHe\u2019s good, and he posts.\u201d<\/p>\n
Valdez, 32, boasts an impressive resume. Over the last 25 years, he is one of just three pitchers (Max Fried and Felix Hernandez are the others) to have at least four seasons with at least a 23 percent strikeout rate, a 50 percent groundball rate and a 3.50 FIP or lower over at least 130 innings. Since 2020, no one has logged more innings in the playoffs (85) than Valdez, who owns a 4.34 ERA in the postseason.<\/p>\n
Valdez deserved to finish first in the poll, multiple scouts said, because of the combination of an elite groundball rate, a low walk rate, an ability to rack up strikeouts and the ability to tackle a healthy workload. Perhaps that is no surprise. After all, Valdez is the highest-ranked pitcher on The Athletic\u2019s Free Agent Big Board (No. 5 overall). Of the 78 pitchers with at least 500 innings over the past five seasons, Valdez ranks No. 1 in groundball rate and No. 3 in homer rate.<\/p>\n
One scout, however, ranked him fourth, which demonstrates the range of opinions when choosing between the four pitchers. Those who valued Valdez less than the others cited makeup concerns over the cross-up during a September game with catcher C\u00e9sar Salazar, and Valdez\u2019s strong-yet-not-spectacular 2025 season in which he had a 3.66 ERA\/3.37 FIP in 192 innings.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, two scouts believe there is a sizable gap between Valdez and the rest of the group, though that stance was not reflected in the poll results.<\/p>\n
RkPitcherPts (1st)<\/p>\n
2<\/p>\n
29 (4)<\/p>\n
Cease, 29, is tantalizing yet enigmatic. One American League scout joked that he was a \u201cbeast\u201d in \u201ceven years.\u201d The issue is that he is closer to league average in odd years. Consider Cease\u2019s ERA+ each season since 2022: 180, 97, 118, 94. But he finished second in the poll (and is No. 6 on the Big Board) because of his pure stuff, big weapons and high whiff rate against righties and lefties. Also, he has logged five straight seasons of at least 32 starts. He is a model of durability despite undergoing Tommy John surgery early in his career.<\/p>\n
The Chicago Cubs understood Cease would soon need that procedure when they selected him in the sixth round of the 2014 draft, buying out his college commitment to Vanderbilt with a $1.5 million bonus and a comprehensive plan to supervise his recovery. Team officials were quickly blown away by Cease\u2019s adherence to that program, demonstrating the physical and mental growth required to develop into a frontline starting pitcher.<\/p>\n
Growing up in the Atlanta area, Cease made baseball a year-round pursuit. His interests meshed well with a Cubs organization that was trying to incorporate new technology and share more information about pitch shapes, delivery movements and biomechanics.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt that time,\u201d Cease recalled during an interview at Wrigley Field this year, \u201cI was just learning everything about pitching. In high school, I was a shortstop and a pitcher, but I didn\u2019t know a whole lot about pitching. I remember just trying to pick everyone\u2019s brains and see what works for them.\u201d<\/p>\n
During that period at the Cubs\u2019 Arizona complex, Cease hung out with Justin Steele, a future All-Star from the same draft class. One day, they went to a local gym with a basketball court. Cease started awkwardly dribbling the ball like someone who hadn\u2019t played a lot of hoops, Steele once recalled. Then Cease gathered himself and staged his own dunk contest.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ve only had one day in my life like that where I was doing these crazy dunks,\u201d Cease said. \u201cThis must have been peak rehab where I had just worked out for 10 months straight. We were at, like, a Life Time or one of those places, and I was doing these wild dunks. I can\u2019t do them right now. I don\u2019t know how I was doing it, but I was doing wild stuff then.\u201d<\/p>\n
That freakish athleticism and natural curiosity about pitching are part of what make Cease so intriguing that he finished just two points off being the No. 1 pitcher in our poll, though others still see some flaws.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe didn\u2019t have a good year last year, and that year bothered me a little bit,\u201d said one NL scout who ranked Cease fourth. \u201cI like the stuff, but his pitchability is iffy.\u201d<\/p>\n
RkPitcherPts (1st)<\/p>\n
3<\/p>\n
22 (1)<\/p>\n
After watching Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a 5-foot-10 right-hander, come from Japan and dominate in the major leagues, at least a couple of scouts said they no longer harbor size concerns if a pitcher showcases athleticism and a strong arsenal.<\/p>\n
Scouts said the 27-year-old Imai, a right-hander listed at 5-foot-11, checks those boxes.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe is not a real physical guy, but he\u2019s a super athlete,\u201d said one NL evaluator who watched Imai pitch in Japan multiple times. \u201cI don\u2019t think he has quite the stuff Yamamoto has, but it\u2019s in the same ballpark.\u201d<\/p>\n
Imai, who was the fourth-ranked pitcher on the Big Board and No. 10 overall, attracted a first-place vote from one scout on our panel who rated all of his pitches major-league average or better. Among a handful of offerings, he throws an impressive fastball and splitter. Also, one scout said he does the \u201clittle things,\u201d such as field his position and hold runners.<\/p>\n
Still, there are concerns. Imai will face a workload adjustment and will need to change his attack plan to have big-league success, an AL East scout said. Another evaluator wondered about Imai\u2019s body language, saying he often looked bored when he was pitching well. Scouts agreed that Imai doesn\u2019t have the same high-end stuff as Yamamoto, nor did he overwhelm hitters the same way as Yamamoto in Japan.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s not quite the type I\u2019d want to be more than a mid-rotation guy,\u201d an NL Central scout said.<\/p>\n
RkPitcherPts (1st)<\/p>\n
4<\/p>\n
18 (0)<\/p>\n
On the Big Board, Su\u00e1rez ranked a smidge higher than Imai, coming in at No. 9. Our panel of 10 scouts liked Su\u00e1rez. They just didn\u2019t love him. Turns out what is dependable isn\u2019t always exciting.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou know what you\u2019re getting with Ranger, and he has also had postseason success,\u201d an AL East scout said. \u201cRanger is boring and useful, and those guys help you win the World Series.\u201d<\/p>\n
Scouts docked Su\u00e1rez, 30, due to concerns with his durability and stuff. But he is coming off his best statistical season as a full-time starter. In 2025, the lefty had a 3.20 ERA\/3.21 FIP in 157 1\/3 innings, the most he has logged in his career.<\/p>\n
\u201cSu\u00e1rez, I like,\u201d an AL evaluator said, \u201cbut I\u2019m not sure how far I\u2019d step out on that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Such is the dilemma of this year\u2019s free-agent class of starting pitchers.<\/p>\n
Who rounds out our top five?<\/p>\n
One scout went as far as suggesting King should rank third, behind only Valdez and Cease.<\/p>\n
\u201cI like King more than Cease but have Cease ahead for durability reasons,\u201d the scout said. \u201cI think you can probably squeeze out another year or two of King at 2024 production levels and would also say Cease has probably peaked.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another evaluator chose Kelly, 37, for the veteran\u2019s projected performance at his price (The Athletic\u2019s Tim Britton predicted Kelly to get two years, $46 million). On the Big Board, King is No. 12, but Kelly (20), Gallen (21) and Giolito (30) aren\u2019t too far behind. In this market, that only makes sense.<\/p>\n
\u201cKing, I love the competitor, love the person,\u201d one AL evaluator said. \u201cI\u2019d be willing to bet on him on a midyear, midrange contract, like three to four years.\u201d<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the thing about this class, the evaluator went on to explain. Are teams better served paying more than $150 million for Cease or Valdez? Or is it better to pay less for someone like Gallen or King?<\/p>\n
\u201cI just think there are good mid-rotation starters out there,\u201d the same AL evaluator said. \u201cThose guys might do pretty well. But these starting pitchers, there\u2019s not a ton of separation.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014 Ken Rosenthal contributed to this story.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There isn\u2019t much separation at the top of the free-agent market for starting pitchers. The class lacks a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":306349,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[2317,2111,371,374,479,2318,2319,2320,1230,372,373,2321,2322,2323,2324,2325,2326,363,1189,369,2327,480,2240,2328,2329,481,99,1231,974,2330,364,2331],"class_list":["post-306348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-atlanta-braves","tag-baltimore-orioles","tag-boston-red-sox","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-chicago-white-sox","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-cleveland-guardians","tag-colorado-rockies","tag-detroit-tigers","tag-houston-astros","tag-kansas-city-royals","tag-los-angeles-angels","tag-los-angeles-dodgers","tag-miami-marlins","tag-milwaukee-brewers","tag-minnesota-twins","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-mets","tag-new-york-yankees","tag-oakland-athletics","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-san-diego-padres","tag-san-francisco-giants","tag-seattle-mariners","tag-sports","tag-st-louis-cardinals","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-texas-rangers","tag-toronto-blue-jays","tag-washington-nationals"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=306348"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306348\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/306349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=306348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=306348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=306348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}