{"id":308407,"date":"2025-11-23T05:49:13","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T05:49:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/308407\/"},"modified":"2025-11-23T05:49:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T05:49:13","slug":"trumps-signals-to-zelensky-and-europe-accept-this-plan-or-youre-on-your-own","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/308407\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s signals to Zelensky and Europe: Accept this plan or you\u2019re on your own"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n The 28-point plan hammered out by US and Russian envoys<\/a> and put to Ukraine this week came with a deadline and an implicit threat: Sign up or face the risk of being abandoned.\n <\/p>\n

\n US President Donald Trump said Friday that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky would \u201chave to like\u201d the US plan, suggesting he is in no mood to negotiate, and saying he has until Thursday to accept.\n <\/p>\n

\n Zelensky recognized the stark choice in a somber speech to the nation<\/a> on Friday, casting the plan as a choice between losing the United States as an ally and giving in to Russian demands, which many of the 28 points cater to.\n <\/p>\n

\n If Kyiv were to lose US support, the consequences would be grave for its weapons supplies and access to intelligence, compounding existing crises: a lack of soldiers, a financial crunch and a deepening lack of confidence among Ukrainians in a presidency tainted by scandal.\n <\/p>\n

\n Above all, rejecting the proposal would herald an existential separation from the US, with massive strategic implications for Ukraine and its European backers. It would risk the US turning its back on the conflict altogether, reneging on pledges of a security guarantee for Ukraine and telling not just Zelensky but the Europeans: You\u2019re on your own.\n <\/p>\n

\n Not getting US weapons would hurt Ukraine, but not as much as it would have done three years ago. That\u2019s partly because the conflict has changed so much: Tanks, anti-tank weapons and armored vehicles now play a subordinate role to the ever-present drones.<\/a>\n <\/p>\n

\n And it\u2019s partly because the weapons pipeline from Europe is now bigger than that from the US. From the start of the war through June 2025, Europe has allocated at least $40 billion<\/a> in military aid, $5 billion more than the US.\n <\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

\n The loss of US weaponry would most of all affect Ukrainian air defenses, which include Patriot batteries and missiles. Zelensky has repeatedly pleaded for more air defenses from the US, but the Patriots are in short supply. Even if the US cut off its own supply of missiles and spare parts, it might allow European and other allies to continue helping.\n <\/p>\n

\n Ukraine has also had a limited supply of highly effective US ATACM missiles<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n

\n The Trump administration has shown greater willingness to sell US weapons to a European-financed fund known as the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) worth some $90 billion. But it could punish Ukraine by abandoning the program \u2013 if Kyiv rejects the plan.\n <\/p>\n

\n On the upside, Ukraine has built a formidable drone and missile industry, even if it needs scaling-up. Ukrainian officials have said that 90% of the drones it uses are made in Ukraine.\n <\/p>\n

\n The US briefly stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine back in March, after the infamous Oval Office encounter between Trump and Zelensky.\n <\/p>\n

\n The exact nature of that cooperation has never been publicly divulged but likely includes early warning of Russian missile launches and real-time analysis of Russian troop movements, critical at a time when Russian forces are making advances on several parts of the frontlines.\n <\/p>\n

\n In October, Zelensky acknowledged that all of Ukraine\u2019s defenses against Russian missiles \u2013 Patriot, NASAMS and the IRIS-T \u2013 would have limited data without US intelligence, meaning there wouldn\u2019t be enough information to ensure defense.\n <\/p>\n

\n US intelligence has also been used by Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, including against military and energy infrastructure, Ukrainian sources have told CNN.\n <\/p>\n

\n The Europeans are improving their access to such intelligence, but it takes years to build and coordinate such capabilities.\n <\/p>\n

Men and money<\/p>\n

\n Ukraine\u2019s greatest problems are more homemade and couldn\u2019t be fixed by any number of US tanks or missiles. Its military has a manpower crisis. Tens of thousands of soldiers went AWOL in the first seven months of this year alone.\n <\/p>\n

\n Many infantry units are severely under-staffed, but reducing the draft age from 25 is seen as a political landmine.\n <\/p>\n

\"An<\/p>\n

\n Should Kyiv reject the blueprint, US backing for its solvency may be another casualty. The International Monetary Fund says Ukraine needs $65 billion in budget support over the next year alone. The European Union has been struggling to agree to a way to use frozen Russian assets as some sort of loan guarantee.\n <\/p>\n

\n The 28-point plan \u2013 the work of Trump\u2019s envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian official Kirill Dmitriev \u2013 threatens to blow up the delicate negotiations on using those assets.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201c$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cFrozen European-held Russian funds will be unfrozen,\u201d the plan insists \u2013 even if those funds are beyond US control and Europe is not party to the plan.\n <\/p>\n

\n The US-Russian plan (point 5) says that \u201cUkraine will receive reliable security guarantees,\u201d but no detail is offered.\n <\/p>\n

\n Language such as: \u201cIt is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries\u201d (point 3) will not inspire confidence in Kyiv.\n <\/p>\n

\n Some reports<\/a> suggest that according to an annex to the plan \u201ca significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack by the Russian Federation across the agreed armistice line into Ukrainian territory shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n CNN has been unable to confirm such a clause.\n <\/p>\n

\"This<\/p>\n

\n Without precise and detailed guarantees, endorsed by the US Congress so they have the force of law and backed by the threat of sanctions, it\u2019s hard to see why Zelensky would accede to the bare outline in the plan.\n <\/p>\n

\n But rejection would bring existential risk.\n <\/p>\n

\n Long before Russia\u2019s full invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s dream was to split Europe from the US. A favorite theme of the Kremlin since Trump took office has been to contrast Trump\u2019s efforts to settle the conflict with the \u201cwar-mongers\u201d in Europe.\n <\/p>\n

\n The 28-point plan nods to this US administration\u2019s semi-detached view of NATO, the cornerstone of peace in Europe for 80 years.\n <\/p>\n

\n It says \u201ca dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States,\u201d exchanging the role of ally for one of arbitrator.\n <\/p>\n

\n European leaders, along with Japan and Canada, came as close as they could to a polite rejection of the plan in a statement<\/a> on Saturday, saying it \u201crequires additional work.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n They added they were \u201cconcerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine\u2019s armed forces,\u201d which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to attack.\n <\/p>\n

\n Some Europeans think this is a cathartic moment.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cWe have been told repeatedly and unambiguously that Ukraine\u2019s security, and therefore Europe\u2019s security, will be Europe\u2019s responsibility. And now it is,\u201d former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on X<\/a> Saturday.\n <\/p>\n

\n Just one month ago, Zelensky said that in a phone call with Trump, he had \u201cdiscussed opportunities to bolster our air defense, as well as concrete agreements that we are working on to ensure this. There are good options and solid ideas on how to truly strengthen us.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Those good options have evaporated.\n <\/p>\n

\"Ukrainian<\/p>\n

\n The potential loss of weapons systems and intelligence \u2013 and their immediate impact on a battlefield that is steadily tilting Moscow\u2019s way as well as Ukraine\u2019s energy supplies \u2013 very much matter.\n <\/p>\n

\n But they pale by comparison to the prospect that Washington is ready to reward Putin\u2019s aggression, shrug at his seizure of European territory and detach itself from the most successful alliance for peace in the modern era.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThere is a long tradition of great powers in Europe making deals over the heads of smaller countries, leading to terrible suffering,\u201d writes Anne Applebaum in the Atlantic. <\/a>\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe Molotov-Ribbentrop pact with its secret protocols, brought us World War II. The Yalta agreement gave us the Cold War. The Witkoff-Dmitriev pact, if it holds, will fit right into that tradition,\u201d she says.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 28-point plan hammered out by US and Russian envoys and put to Ukraine this week came with…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":308408,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,3,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":["post-308407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-news","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=308407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308407\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/308408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=308407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=308407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=308407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}