Content supplied by Rabobank.<\/p>\n
The surge in usage of \u2018GLP-1\u2019-style weight loss medications is seeing a \u201cripple effect\u201d begin to unfold, impacting eating patterns in a number of countries around the world, Rabobank says in recently released research.<\/p>\n
In the global report, Every bite counts: GLP-1s and the future of food, the agribusiness bank\u2019s RaboResearch division says \u201cweight loss medications mark a turning point for food consumption\u201d.<\/p>\n
While it\u2019s early days and \u201cthe scale of these shifts is still evolving\u201d, the report says, \u201cthe direction is clear \u2013 eating patterns are changing and no (food) category is immune\u201d, with users of these medicines eating both less and differently. \u201cNot everyone will use GLP-1s, but the user base will grow large enough to shape mainstream (food) demand,\u201d the report forecasts, \u201cmuch like vegans, \u2018flexitarians\u2019 and well-ness-driven consumers already do.\u201d<\/p>\n
Adoption of weight loss medications \u2013 such as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (known as GLP-1s) \u2013 is surging in the United States, with Europe, and particularly the United Kingdom, following rapidly, RaboResearch says.<\/p>\n
New Zealand is still in the early stages of adoption, says RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel, with GLP-1 medications having been available to New Zealanders for diabetes treatment since 2023, with approval for weight loss usage in March 2025.<\/p>\n
And uptake globally will continue to accelerate, the report predicts, as costs of the medication fall, pill forms become available (providing greater appeal to more users than the current injections) and cover by health insurers expands in several countries.<\/p>\n
For the food sector, the implications of the growing global popularity of weight loss medication are \u201cfundamental\u201d, RaboResearch says, representing both disruption and opportunity for the industry.<\/p>\n
\u201cPeople will eat less and growth will hinge on creating more value per bite,\u201d the report says, with \u201cless but better\u201d becoming the norm.<\/p>\n
\u201cCategory impact will vary. Snacks and indulgent staples face sharper disruption, but also stand to gain if they evolve. Dairy, fresh foods and functional beverages are better positioned to benefit.\u201d<\/p>\n
Global adoption<\/p>\n
With obesity one of the \u201cdefining health challenges of our time\u201d, RaboResearch says, over half the global population is set to be obese or overweight by 2035, based on current trends.<\/p>\n
For decades, the report says, progress in obesity treatment had been slow and limited, but that changed with the arrival of GLP-1 medicines, such as semaglutide (Wegovy) and tirzepatide (Mounjaro). Originally developed for diabetes treatment and now transforming into weight management, the drugs mimic natural gut hormones to reduce appetite, slow digestion and improve blood sugar control, leading to weight loss and cardiovascular benefits.<\/p>\n
Mr Vogel said while adoption patterns differ by regions around the world, consumer surveys by RAND Survey Research Group suggest nearly 12 per cent of adults in the US have used a GLP-1 drug for weight loss, while research by KAM Insights estimates four to seven per cent of UK adults now use GLP-1s. That number, he points out, is comparable to the percentage of vegetarians in the UK (seven per cent) and ahead of the number of vegans (three per cent).<\/p>\n
In New Zealand, Mr Vogel said \u201cit is early days, but recent indications from Health New Zealand are that more than 18,000 people have been prescribed the weight-loss drug Wegovy between July and October this year.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cDevelopments in Australia might be used as an indication of potential uptake rates in New Zealand as both countries have a similar share of the adult population who are considered overweight or obese (about 66%). Australian GLP-1 sales have increased almost 10-fold across the last five years and about 2% of the adult population is now using them.\u201d<\/p>\n
Appetite suppression and altered taste perception<\/p>\n
The two main factors driving behavioural change among weight-loss medication users, with knock-on impacts for the food sector, were \u201cappetite suppression\u201d and \u201caltered taste perception\u201d, Mr Vogel said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAppetite suppression reduces overall food intake among users of weight loss medication and makes portion-controlled, nutrient-dense foods more sought after,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAltered taste perception reduces taste sensitivity and dulls cravings, shifting indulgence away from pure flavour intensity towards multisensory experiences where texture, aroma and visual appeal play a bigger role in delivering satisfaction.\u201d<\/p>\n
The report says early estimates suggest current GLP-1 usage is already reducing food and beverage consumption by one to two per cent, driven primarily by the US, where adoption is most advanced, and with Europe beginning to follow.<\/p>\n
Mr Vogel said a large US-based study had indicated households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced their grocery spending by approximately six per cent within six months of adoption of the medication.<\/p>\n
\u201cPurchases of calorie-dense, processed items \u2013 such as chips, sweet bakery goods and soft drinks \u2013 declined significantly, while spending on high-protein dairy products, fresh produce and nutrition bars showed modest increases,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cUsers of GLP-1s are changing their eating habits and often also those of the whole household \u2013 especially cutting back on calorie-dense products containing sugar and fat and likely also on alcohol. But weight loss due to these medications also comes with muscle loss which can be somewhat countered by increased protein intake, leading to greater demand for high protein food, particularly dairy products and nutrition bars, as well as fresh produce.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mr Vogel said while sugar, wine and beer producers would most notably be negatively impacted by the changed food consumption patterns, studies in the US showed consumer spending on meat and eggs also fell in line with the reduction in average grocery spend seen amongst GLP-1 users.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe winners are producers of fresh produce and high protein foods and food supplements,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Intensifying existing trends<\/p>\n
Rather than creating new food-consumption trends though, the report says, GLP-1s are intensifying existing trends that are already shaping the market. These include: high protein, gut health and digestive comfort, hydration and nutrient density, portion control and mindful indulgence as well as avoidance of ultra-processed foods.<\/p>\n
Mr Vogel said the demand for protein among GLP-1s users was being fuelled due to its role in satiety, metabolic health and muscle preservation.<\/p>\n
\u201cYoghurts, prebiotics and probiotics are also sought for improving food tolerance and enhancing digestive wellness, which can be an issue for those taking these medications. We are also seeing a demand for functional beverages with electrolytes and fortified foods that are nutrient dense, as hydration cues can weaken among people using weight loss medication and they also need to get the most nutrition from fewer calories.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mr Vogel said appetite suppression was also making smaller portions more the norm, including for indulgence foods, while there was evidence of a move away from ultra-processed foods among those on GLP-1s.<\/p>\n
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