![\"President](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/D5ZGGUQG6VOO3DYL2CCVZDTWRA.jpg\")
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President of Venezuela Nicol\u00e1s Maduro dances during a march as part of the “Venezuelan Student Day” at Miraflores in Caracas, Venezuela, on Nov. 21.<\/p>\n
Jesus Vargas \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
BOGOT\u00c1, Colombia \u2014 The U.S. military buildup in the southern Caribbean Sea near Venezuela is raising expectations of an armed strike against that country but also fears that it could create a South American quagmire.<\/p>\n
Tension is building as the Trump administration amasses warships and thousands of troops in the Caribbean. On Monday, it designated Venezuela\u2019s government, led by President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, as a foreign terrorist organization. And while saying Tuesday that he was open to talking with Maduro, President Trump has also hinted that the authoritarian leader\u2019s days are numbered.<\/p>\n
But American military intervention, which is strongly supported by many Venezuelans, including opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize recipient Mar\u00eda Corina Machado<\/a>, would be unpopular at home and extremely risky.<\/p>\n \u201cThis cozy idea that somehow Maduro falls and the next day Mar\u00eda Corina Machado walks into the presidential palace and everybody lives happily ever after is fantastical,\u201d said Phil Gunson<\/a>, who is based in Caracas for the International Crisis Group. \u201cThat won\u2019t happen.\u201d<\/p>\n Ever since his first term, President Trump has pushed to depose Maduro, who has crushed Venezuela\u2019s democracy and led the country into economic misery, prompting some 8 million Venezuelans to flee the country. Trump has long encouraged Venezuelan military officers to overthrow Maduro and in 2019 recognized opposition lawmaker Juan Guaid\u00f3 <\/a>as the country\u2019s legitimate president.<\/p>\n But Maduro has clung to power, prompting Trump, in his second term, to consider military options.<\/p>\n The most extreme would be a full-fledged U.S. invasion along the lines of the American takeover of the tiny isthmus of Panama in 1989 that involved 27,000 American troops and led to the arrest of that country\u2019s dictator, Manuel Noriega.<\/p>\n But even though Trump has dispatched the largest U.S. naval flotilla to the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis, experts say the 15,000 U.S. troops aboard those warships would not be enough to take control of Venezuela. The South American country is larger than Texas and home to rugged mountains and Amazon jungle.<\/p>\n Should the U.S. put together a more robust invasion force, it could quickly subdue Venezuela\u2019s army. Indeed, many of its poorly paid rank-and-file soldiers might switch sides. But there would be substantial push back from unconventional forces, says Jeremy McDermott, co-director of Insight Crime<\/a>, which analyzes organized crime in Latin America.<\/p>\n \u201cAny serious land invasion of Venezuela would be extremely complex,\u201d McDermott said. \u201cYou put boots on the ground almost anywhere in Venezuela, particularly in Caracas and along the border areas, and you are going to face armed resistance.\u201d<\/p>\n That resistance, he said, would include pro-Maduro militias, known as \u201ccolectivos,\u201d as well as at least 1,000 battle-hardened Colombian guerrillas who are based inside Venezuela, sympathize with Maduro, and would act as a pro-regime paramilitary force in the event of a U.S. invasion. In addition, the Maduro government has been handing out weapons to civilians and training them to shoot.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a peoples war to defend our country,\u201d one military trainer told Venezuelan state TV.<\/p>\n Yet most Venezuelans despise Maduro and voted against him in last year\u2019s presidential election that was considered by many \u2014 including the U.S. government \u2014 to have been stolen by his regime. One Venezuelan analyst, who asked to remain anonymous for his safety, said he\u2019s seen polling, yet to be made public, that shows that most Venezuelans would support U.S. military action to remove Maduro.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is no other way,\u201d said Zair Mundaray, a former Venezuelan government prosecutor now living in exile in Florida.<\/p>\n