Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has just returned from a trip to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where he extracted a $70 billion investment pledge from the Gulf state.<\/p>\n
The funding is expected to include energy, AI logistics, mining and other strategic industries.<\/p>\n
Fed up with Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs, Canada\u2019s new government is on a mission to double non-US exports over the next decade and unleash $1\u00a0trillion in new investment in Canada over five years, according to a Nov. 21 press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n In conjunction with the UAE announcement, Carney said Ottawa is working on a $1-billion project aimed at expanding critical minerals processing capacity in Canada.<\/p>\n \u201cI’m pleased that an agreement valued over $1 billion is in the process of being finalized,\u201d Carney said in a speech to the Canada-U.A.E. Business Council covered by CBC News<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201c[It] will expand critical minerals processing capacity in Canada, creating jobs, boosting [the] long-term supply of minerals essential to energy technologies and advanced manufacturing. More on that soon,” he said.<\/p>\n Rhetoric aside, where does Canada, a relatively small country in terms of mineral refining capacity, stand in terms of developing enough capacity to become independent of China, the leading refiner of critical minerals? Is Canada even globally relevant?<\/p>\n According to the International Energy Agency, China has an average market share of 70% for 19 out of 20 key minerals. For rare earth elements, it accounts for 91% of global refining production.<\/p>\n In 2024, China held a 96% share of global refined graphite, 78% of the world\u2019s refined cobalt, 70% of its lithium, and 44% of its copper.<\/p>\n Despite a long mining history, Canada is really only a major miner of two commodities. It is the world\u2019s largest producer and exporter of potash and the second-largest producer and exporter of uranium. While Canada is among the top 10 producers of cobalt, graphite, lithium and nickel \u2014 all now considered critical minerals \u2014 it accounts for only 5% of the global mine production of each of these minerals.<\/p>\n Related: Rocket Attack Forces Shutdown of Gas Field in Kurdistan<\/a><\/p>\n Staying with mine production for the minute, Australia accounts for 37% of total world lithium production. Indonesia is the top nickel miner at 59% of the world total, China mines 69% of the world\u2019s rare earth elements and 79% of its graphite, and the DRC accounts for about three-quarters of world cobalt mine production. (Mineral Commodities Summary 2025, by the US Geological Survey<\/a>)<\/p>\n China\u2019s near-monopoly on critical minerals processing gives it serious heft in trade relations. In recent months, Beijing has leveraged its position to tighten export restrictions on minerals, including rare earths, graphite, antimony, gallium and germanium.<\/p>\n Canada has established domestic infrastructure for processing minerals such as aluminum and uranium, and has a few smelters and refineries for copper, nickel and zinc. But for the key energy-transition metals like lithium and rare earth elements, refining capacity is currently minimal or non-existent.<\/p>\n Canada\u2019s first rare earths refinery was opened in 2024 in Saskatchewan<\/a>. At full operation, the CAD$74 million facility is expected to produce 400 tonnes of NdPr metals per year, used to make permanent magnets.<\/p>\n By comparison, China in 2024 produced 83,697 tonnes of NdPr metal.<\/p>\n The United States is the primary export destination for 52% of all Canadian mineral exports and 63% of critical minerals. The latter are concentrated in the upstream stages of the value chain, meaning that further processing often occurs after export.<\/p>\n Canada certainly has ambitions to grow its critical minerals supply chain, from mining to refining to the manufacture of end products. The Canadian Mineral Minerals Strategy<\/a> was published by the Canadian government in 2022, underscoring the need to secure and diversify supply chains.<\/p>\n Canada’s critical minerals list contains 34 minerals deemed essential for economic or national security.<\/p>\n According to a recent piece by HillNotes<\/a>, Securing critical minerals supply chains entails, among other measures, identifying the parties involved in extracting and processing critical minerals in this country\u2026 While\u00a0foreign direct investment<\/a>\u00a0plays a crucial role in supporting this sector, concerns have been raised about foreign ownership of these resources. <\/p>\n Maps embedded into the article show that 30 of Canada\u2019s 55\u00a0critical mineral mines are owned by companies whose parent company is based in Canada. For the other 25 mines, their parent companies are based in Brazil, the United States and Switzerland. The Tanco mine in Manitoba, which produces cesium, tantalum and lithium, is 100% owned by a Chinese company.<\/p>\n Canada is home to 45\u00a0advanced graphite, lithium and REE projects. Thirty-one are owned by a Canadian-domiciled company.<\/p>\n Only eight of the 32 critical mineral processing centers are owned by Canadian companies. The other 24 are owned by parent companies that reside in the United Kingdom, the United States, Switzerland, Brazil, France, Germany and Luxembourg.<\/p>\n At the end of October the Canadian government announced the first round of projects under a G7 critical minerals production alliance envisioned as a counterweight to China\u2019s dominance in the sector.<\/p>\n