Virginians plan to dial back holiday spending this year, trimming budgets by about 5% even as the broader economy shows strong growth, according to a new Institute for Policy and Opinion Research survey at Roanoke College.<\/p>\n
This article was reprinted with permission from Virginia Mercury<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Virginians plan to dial back holiday spending this year, trimming budgets by about 5% even as the broader economy shows strong growth, according to a new Institute for Policy and Opinion Research survey at Roanoke College.<\/p>\n The poll<\/a> found that households expect to spend an average of $1,035 this season in Virginia \u2014 down from last year<\/a> \u2014 and they\u2019re shifting how they spend, putting more toward gifts while cutting back on personal purchases and experiences.<\/p>\n That pattern echoes national signals of caution. According to the latest Gallup poll<\/a>, Americans expect to spend about $1,007 on holiday gifts this year, nearly unchanged from the $1,014 forecast last year.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Deloitte 2025 Holiday Retail Survey<\/a> found U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $1,595, a 10% drop from 2024, indicating restraint in spending on goods and experiences.<\/p>\n A shift toward \u201ccore\u201d holiday spending<\/p>\n The Roanoke College survey, conducted Nov. 9\u201314 among 912 Virginians, shows a clear recalibration.<\/p>\n Planned spending on gifts is up 10.6%, while personal, non-gift purchases \u2014 such as apparel, electronics and home d\u00e9cor \u2014 are down 16.5%. Spending on experiences like dining out and entertainment is down 19.6%.<\/p>\n That shift toward essential holiday traditions mirrors national patterns: consumers preserving the emotional center of the season while scaling back discretionary extras.<\/p>\n Analysts attribute this to price pressure, job market concerns and tariff-driven cost increases.<\/p>\n \u201cHoliday spending plans reflect a balancing act between optimism and caution,\u201d said Dr. Alice Louise Kassens, senior analyst for IPOR and dean of Roanoke College\u2019s School of Business, Economics, and Analytics.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile the economy shows strong headline growth, households are tightening overall budgets, reallocating dollars toward gifts and away from non-essential purchases and experiences.\u201d<\/p>\n Income brackets also shape spending expectations in Virginia.<\/p>\n Fewer households plan to spend between $100 and $500; instead more are at the low end (under $100) or high end (more than $1,000). Lower-income households are concentrated in lower spending tiers, while higher-income Virginians more often expect to spend above $1,000.<\/p>\n Strong GDP, softer labor market<\/p>\n The new survey arrives against a complex economic backdrop.<\/p>\n National GDP growth remains strong: the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta\u2019s GDPNow model<\/a> estimates annualized quarterly growth at 4%. That underscores consumer spending\u2019s role \u2014 roughly 70% of the total economy.<\/p>\n Yet households may not feel that strength. Year-over-year inflation is at about 3%, and labor-market indicators are showing softening relative to 2024.<\/p>\n Those conditions align with national consumer-sentiment readings. While spending intentions remain elevated, confidence is cautious. Tariffs are adding cost pressure in import-heavy categories such as apparel and electronics \u2014 items Virginia households say they\u2019re cutting back on.<\/p>\n In fact, \u201cthe continued shift to online shopping, accounting for more than half of planned holiday purchases, underscores consumers\u2019 desire for convenience and value in a season marked by uncertainty. For small businesses, this trend highlights the importance of digital presence and competitive pricing to capture holiday demand,\u201d Kassens said.<\/p>\n Digital continues its climb<\/p>\n Digital shopping is now the dominant channel in Virginia. The IPOR poll found that 56% of planned holiday purchases will happen online, up four points from 2024.<\/p>\n That mirrors national retail-industry forecasts<\/a>: in the U.S., the National Retail Federation expects total holiday retail sales (excluding autos, gas and restaurants) of $1.01\u2013$1.02 trillion this year \u2014 a 3.7%\u20134.2% rise over 2024.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n For Virginia retailers, that means refining digital offerings and value messaging could be key. \u201cConsumers are celebrating the season, but with sharper priorities and a watchful eye on costs,\u201d Kassens said.<\/p>\n Overall, the IPOR survey paints a picture of Virginians trying to reconcile the mixed signals of the current economy. While GDP growth is robust, price levels and job-market clouds are giving households reason to pause.<\/p>\n Across the country, many shoppers say they plan the same or lower spending compared to last year: Gallup found<\/a> 56% of Americans expect to spend about the same, 23% less.<\/p>\n