{"id":323335,"date":"2025-12-01T02:04:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T02:04:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/323335\/"},"modified":"2025-12-01T02:04:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T02:04:12","slug":"as-trump-and-saudi-prince-heat-up-ties-israel-normalization-left-out-in-the-cold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/323335\/","title":{"rendered":"As Trump and Saudi prince heat up ties, Israel normalization left out in the cold"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sitting alongside the US president, the gold trim of his robes matching the molding of\u00a0 Donald Trump\u2019s Oval Office, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman radiated regal confidence.<\/p>\n

Smiling easily, the kingdom\u2019s 40-year-old de facto leader delighted Trump by announcing a nearly $1 trillion investment in the US economy. Trump patted the powerful Saudi prince\u2019s shoulder repeatedly, and angrily defended the royal known as MBS in the face of hostile questions about his record from the Washington press corps.<\/p>\n

Behind the elaborate trappings, the warm physical contact, and the smiles, it was an uneasy MBS who came to Washington this month. His grand economic plans, on which he is staking the future of the kingdom, are nowhere close to where he wants them to be. The kingdom finds itself on the back foot while Saudi Arabia\u2019s rivals are driving events in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

MBS came to Washington to try to reassert the oil-rich kingdom\u2019s position in a region that\u2019s been leaving it behind, and in that regard, the visit was a marked success, consolidating much of what was promised during Trump\u2019s visit to Riyadh in May and cementing the crown prince as one of Trump\u2019s top allies in the region.<\/p>\n

But by helping add muscle to Saudi Arabia and boosting its stature in the Middle East, the White House may have also raised the price on long-sought normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem.<\/p>\n

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Saudi Arabia has for years been considered the holy grail of the Abraham Accords alliance, its importance in the region and the world far outweighing the countries that have normalized with Israel under the pact thus far. From the waning days of the first Trump administration, through Joe Biden\u2019s White House and into Trump\u2019s second term, diplomats have described the prize as just beyond reach.<\/p>\n

Riyadh had long insisted that such a deal be predicated on Palestinian statehood, but there had been signs in recent years that it was willing to compromise and perhaps accept an ambiguous commitment as enough to join up, along with some defense goodies from the US.<\/p>\n

But with the Gaza war knocking Israel\u2019s standing down a notch and the new deals struck between MBS and Trump stiffening Saudi Arabia\u2019s bargaining position, Jerusalem may now have even further to climb before it can reach this peak of normalization.<\/p>\n

Riyadh in retreat<\/p>\n

Though\u00a0Israelis were largely focused on the security aspects of MBS\u2019s trip, the crown prince\u2019s prime interest was economic.<\/p>\n

As he rapidly rose from relative obscurity to the top of the Saudi power structure a decade ago, MBS forged a sweeping social, economic, and religious modernization program, aiming to transform Saudi Arabia from an oil-based kingdom to a world leader in technology and global commerce.<\/p>\n

\t\"\"
\n\t\tA handout picture provided by Saudi\u2019s NEOM on July 26, 2022 shows the design plan for the 500-metre tall parallel structures, known collectively as The Line, in the heart of the Red Sea megacity NEOM. (NEOM \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

But his flagship futuristic megacity NEOM<\/a> is largely foundering, and he is facing difficulties in positioning Saudi Arabia as an AI powerhouse. Despite vast tracts of empty land, access to cheap energy, and money, Saudi Arabia lacks the top-line indigenous talent or technology to lure data centers for leading international AI companies.<\/p>\n

On the second count, at least, MBS made major headway during his White House visit. The two countries signed<\/a> a Strategic Artificial Intelligence Partnership, and Humain \u2014 the Saudi AI company created by its sovereign wealth fund \u2014 signed a flurry of joint ventures with Cisco, Qualcomm, AMD, and Elon Musk\u2019s xAI.<\/p>\n

MBS also made up ground on the slipping status of his country, and his own standing in the halls of power, after years in which he was personally shunned in world capitals due to international revulsion over the 2018 murder and dismemberment of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, widely believed<\/a> to have been carried out at the crown prince\u2019s orders.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tIn this file photo taken on October 10, 2018, a demonstrator dressed as Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (C) with blood on his hands protests outside the Saudi Embassy in Washington, DC, demanding justice for missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. (Jim Watson\/AFP)<\/p>\n

Though MBS is not a head of state, he was still received by Trump with honors reserved for only the most powerful world leaders \u2014 and, notably, not for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.<\/p>\n

Even though MBS\u2019s own status improved markedly as the Russian invasion of Ukraine spiked Western demand for Saudi oil production, he had reason to worry about Riyadh falling behind its rivals. Tiny neighboring countries enjoyed new pacts and weapons from the US while Saudi Arabia waited on the sidelines. Qatar \u2014 with which Saudi Arabia cut ties for several years starting in 2017 \u2014 was designated a major US non-NATO ally in 2022, and received unprecedented defense guarantees from Trump after the Israeli strike in Doha<\/a> in September.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tQatar\u2019s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, left, welcomes US President Donald Trump during an official welcoming ceremony at the Amiri Diwan in Doha, Qatar, May 14, 2025. (AP Photo\/Alex Brandon)<\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s now playing catch up to a very small country on his border, that has a fraction of the kingdom\u2019s global clout and influence, and whose support for the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists has been a more or less constant thorn in Saudi Arabia\u2019s side for years,\u201d said John Hannah, senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America and former national security adviser to former US vice president Dick Cheney.<\/p>\n

For more on this topic, watch the Lazar Focus:<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the storied 8-decade history of the US-Saudi strategic relationship, finding yourself in a second-tier status to Qatar in terms of Washington\u2019s array of regional security commitments couldn\u2019t have been comfortable,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

The main security threat for the Saudis remains Iran. In his first years as a leading Saudi figure, MBS adopted an aggressive posture toward the Iranian axis, going to war against the Houthis in Yemen and kidnapping Lebanon\u2019s prime minister for being too soft on Hezbollah.<\/p>\n

In recent years, however, MBS has opened diplomatic channels with Tehran in order to mitigate the Iranian threat.<\/p>\n

The Saudis were undoubtedly happy to see Hamas, Hezbollah, Bashar al-Assad\u2019s Syria, the Houthis, and the Iranians themselves battered by Israel since October 7, 2023.<\/p>\n

What they weren\u2019t counting on was Iran being replaced by an aggressive Israel, willing to carry out attacks at will across the region, regardless of whether they were allied with the US (see: Qatar) or Saudi Arabia (see: Syria\u2019s new regime).<\/p>\n

\t\"\"
\n\t\tThis handout picture made available by the Qatar Amiri Diwan, shows Qatar\u2019s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani (C) attending the funeral of people killed in an Israeli strike on Hamas leaders two days earlier, at Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Wahhab Mosque in Doha on September 11, 2025. (Photo by Qatar Amiri Diwan \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

\u201cIt undermines, or to some extent weakens, Saudi Arabia\u2019s ability to be the regional policeman \u2014 as if Israel is becoming responsible for the regional order instead of Saudi Arabia,\u201d said\u00a0Moran Zaga, a Gulf scholar at national security consulting firm MIND Israel.<\/p>\n

\u201cIsrael has increased its self-confidence here, and its footprint, let\u2019s call it, in the region \u2014 and this is something for which Saudi Arabia will want some kind of response or compensation,\u201d Zaga said.<\/p>\n

Saudis strike back<\/p>\n

With Israel and Qatar on the rise, and Iran in retreat, MBS wanted to restore his kingdom as Washington\u2019s premier security partner in the region.<\/p>\n

He has been insisting on a full Senate-approved defense treaty that would not be subject to changes in administration in Washington. Instead, he left with only the status of major non-NATO ally \u2014 a position which Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Tunisia, and Qatar already enjoy \u2014 and a vague US-Saudi Strategic Defense Agreement.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s going to have to settle for a temporary and highly personalized commitment from a deeply polarizing, mercurial, and increasingly unpopular president who will be out of office in three years,\u201d said Hannah.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tQatar\u2019s Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani (2nd-R) welcomes US President Donald Trump upon his arrival in the Qatari capital Doha from Saudi Arabia on May 14, 2025 (Brendan SMIALOWSKI \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, MBS still came away with some big wins, foremost among them Trump\u2019s commitment to, at some point, sell F-35s to the Saudis, which would make the kingdom the first Muslim and Arab country to operate the most advanced fighter jet in the world.<\/p>\n

If Saudis get the jets, it would likely end Israel\u2019s ability to dominate the region\u2019s skies, though as things stand, the countries are extremely unlikely to use them against each other.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe should admit it\u2019s hard to conjure up any realistic scenario in which MBS would ever make the decision to wage war against Israel,\u201d said Hannah. \u201cBut this is the Middle East. Regimes and intentions can change while capabilities remain.\u201d<\/p>\n

Events in the region over the last 15 years have underscored how quickly even ostensibly stable regimes allied with the US can fall.<\/p>\n

The potential danger doesn\u2019t mean that Israel has to work now to spike the sale. Israel can push for guarantees on defense cooperation in a new 20-year MOU that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is said<\/a> to be pushing for. The US can also provide a Senate-ratified mutual defense treaty.<\/p>\n

\t\"\"
\n\t\tUS Air Force fighter aircraft F-35 performs aerobatic maneuvers on the second day of the Aero India 2025, a biennial event, at Yelahanka air base in Bengaluru, India, February 11, 2025. (AP\/Aijaz Rahi)<\/p>\n

MBS also sealed a long-sought agreement on civil nuclear energy that \u201cbuilds the legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar\u201d partnership in line with \u201cstrong nonproliferation standards,\u201d according to the White House.<\/p>\n

If Saudi civil nuclear reactors are powered by imported fuel rods, there\u2019s nothing to worry about in Israel. On the other hand, if agreements with the US open the door for the Saudis to master the entire nuclear fuel cycle, Israel would face a transformed security landscape.<\/p>\n

Harder bargain<\/p>\n

For Israel, the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia could mitigate any future risks posed by the country.<\/p>\n

MBS stressed at the White House that he eventually intends to normalize ties with Israel: \u201cWe want to be part of the Abraham Accords, but we want also to be sure that [we] secure a clear path [toward a] two-state solution.\u201d<\/p>\n

But after the two years of war in Gaza, the Saudi leader needs a much stronger commitment from Israel on a Palestinian state than he may have been willing to go with before 2023 if he is to foist normalization on a hostile Saudi public.<\/p>\n

\t\"\"
\n\t\tPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint meeting of Congress at the US Capitol on July 24, 2024, in Washington, DC. (Drew Angerer \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fires of Gaza are too fresh, the ceasefire too fragile, Saudi leaders too concerned about their public\u2019s opinion to move forward absent a credible path ahead for Palestinians, and Israeli leadership is unwilling to offer one,\u201d said Daniel Benaim of the Middle East Institute. \u201cThe mood of the US Congress is also less internationalist than before.\u00a0 Several of these conditions will need to shift \u2014 which seems quite possible over time, but unlikely soon.\u201d<\/p>\n

MBS\u2019s gains in Washington add to the challenge. The defense upgrades he received could have been conditioned on a normalization package. Now, a full mutual defense treaty could be the only way to finalize the Saudis joining the Abraham Accords.<\/p>\n

Moreover, there isn\u2019t that much MBS needs from Israel right now. The doors to Trump\u2019s office are wide open for him, with no need for Israel to help smooth the way.<\/p>\n

And in high-priority realms where Israel can be an important asset for Riyadh \u2014 like AI \u2014 the US has committed to providing Saudi Arabia far more than Israel ever could.<\/p>\n

For Netanyahu, the most concerning aspect of MBS\u2019s visit may be the indication that Trump\u2019s vision for the Middle East no longer aligns with his own bellicose stance.<\/p>\n

\u201cSaudi Arabia \u2014 and the Gulf states in general \u2014 have a distinct view of what the region requires at this moment, with a greater emphasis on de-escalation, diplomacy, trade, and investment,\u201d said Benaim.<\/p>\n

\t\"\"
\n\t\tUS President Donald Trump listens during a multilateral meeting with leaders of Qatar, Jordan, Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, during the United Nations General Assembly, September 23, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo\/Evan Vucci)<\/p>\n

That approach, and not Israel\u2019s pugnacious post-October 7 posture, lines up nicely with what Trump wants to do in the region and beyond. Gulf states, and Turkey, have become in recent months Trump\u2019s preferred interlocutors on mediation and the future of the region.<\/p>\n

In the long run, though, Israel likely has advantages for the US as a partner over Saudi Arabia, and the pendulum may well swing back. Trump himself is famously mercurial, and he will be out of office in three years. A Democratic administration could well turn on an autocrat who became one of Trump\u2019s closest partners.<\/p>\n

Over time, Hannah said, neither MBS\u2019s personal bonds with Trump nor a flood of investment \u201ccan substitute for the reliability, performance, and professionalism of the Israeli military and intelligence services, and the world-class character of Israel\u2019s innovation high-tech economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThose are huge and lasting assets for the United States that no other regional state can match,\u201d he argued, \u201cand that have in the last year overturned the Middle East\u2019s balance of power in ways overwhelmingly favorable to the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sitting alongside the US president, the gold trim of his robes matching the molding of\u00a0 Donald Trump\u2019s Oval…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":323336,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,3,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":["post-323335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-news","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/323335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=323335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/323335\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/323336"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=323335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=323335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=323335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}