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Democrats emerged from the shutdown empty-handed on a health care subsidy extension, but the party is well-positioned for messaging ahead of next year\u2019s midterms, according to analysts and early polling data.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Putting the focus squarely on health care could force Republicans into a binary choice \u2014 either they reach a compromise that achieves some Democratic goals, or the GOP majority is unable to put forth anything on rising heath care costs. Though it\u2019s early for such predictions, either could boost Democrats next November.<\/p>\n
For one thing, the various Republican plans under development\u00a0might\u00a0not have happened if Democrats hadn\u2019t dug in their heels, said Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt did focus the attention in a way that obviously has sustained itself after the shutdown,\u201d Reeher said. \u201cWhat I would predict would be some kind of compromise is going to happen on this issue.\u201d<\/p>\n
In the weeks following the shutdown, Republicans have some momentum on health care costs, but they are far from unified.<\/p>\n
Sens. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Michael D. Crapo, R-Idaho., the chairs of two powerful committees with health jurisdiction, have a proposal that would place funds for Affordable Care Act enrollees directly into health savings accounts with the goal of diverting the money from insurance companies and allowing patients more flexibility.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, according to multiple reports, President Donald Trump last week considered a two-year extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies with certain guardrails around income, but quickly backed off after negative early reviews from Congress.<\/p>\n
\u201cSomebody said I want to extend it for two years,\u201d Trump later told told reporters on Air Force One. \u201cI don\u2019t want to extend it for two years. I\u2019d rather not extend them at all.\u201d He went on to say that some kind of an extension may be necessary to get something done.<\/p>\n
In an effort to coalesce on a solution, the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee has scheduled a hearing for Wednesday on the rising cost of health care, after a Senate Finance Committee hearing late last month produced no consensus<\/a>.<\/p>\n Reeher said he was surprised that some had framed shutdown as a Democratic defeat. In his view, the party was actually successful in keeping attention on the issue.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIn that sense, then I think it was a mission accomplished for the Democrats in that way,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019m scratching my head a little bit about why it was perceived as such a cave.\u201d<\/p>\n Some Republicans sense that the issue is critical.<\/p>\n \u201cIf we want to be viable in the midterms, I think is something we have to think about,\u201d Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., told reporters last month. \u201cIt\u2019s the right thing to do. I don\u2019t want to be the party that takes away people\u2019s health care.\u201d<\/p>\n Democrats\u2019 early leads<\/p>\n Democratic leadership is betting real change won\u2019t happen while Republicans are in control of Congress. Speaking on the Senate floor late last month, Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., teed up Democrats\u2019 arguments to that effect.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWhen people\u2019s monthly payments spike next year, they\u2019ll know it was Republicans that made it happen, and more than that they\u2019ll know Democrats were fighting on their behalf to lower costs and rebuild the sunny American optimism that our country desperately needs,\u201d Schumer said.<\/p>\n Early polling is showing that Democrats are favored, momentum they are hoping to harness as the debate over health care rolls on.<\/p>\n A Marist poll<\/a> conducted in November found that 55 percent of respondents would vote for a Democratic candidate if the election were held then, compared to 41 percent of respondents for a Republican.\u00a0<\/p>\n