{"id":334800,"date":"2025-12-07T09:40:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-07T09:40:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/334800\/"},"modified":"2025-12-07T09:40:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-07T09:40:12","slug":"forestry-carbon-credit-programs-have-a-poor-track-record-can-a-more-refined-approach-fix-the-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/334800\/","title":{"rendered":"Forestry Carbon Credit Programs Have a Poor Track Record. Can a More Refined Approach Fix the Problem?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>David Funk has spent decades working to restore the native forest ecosystems of southeast Ohio. Now, he\u2019s finally getting paid for it\u2014through a carbon credit program.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Nature Conservancy reached out and knew that I was very active in the preservation of woodlands in southeastern Ohio,\u201d Funk said. \u201cIt was just a perfect fit for what we do.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Funk runs Capstone Property Management, a nonprofit based in Athens County, Ohio. The organization is best known locally as a rental property manager, but woodland preservation is also part of its DNA. According to its website, Capstone owns and manages 3,600 acres of forest.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"From left: Matthew Niese, David Niese, David Funk and Christopher Holliday. Credit: Courtesy of David Funk\" class=\"wp-image-103292\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Photo-4-David-Funk.-HiRes-4-tree-planters-1024x683.jpg\"\/>From left: Matthew Niese, David Niese, David Funk and Christopher Holliday. Credit: Courtesy of David Funk<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s why Funk was eager to become the first Ohio member of the Family Forest Carbon Program. An initiative of the American Forest Foundation and the Nature Conservancy, the FFCP pays private landowners not to timber the forests on their properties for 20 years. It also provides free consultations with forest managers to facilitate whatever goals landowners may have for their woods\u2014hunting, hiking, even sustainable harvesting.<\/p>\n<p>To pay for it all, the program sells carbon credits to companies looking to offset their greenhouse gas emissions. By preventing large-scale timber harvests, trees continue to absorb more carbon. When companies buy a credit, they are essentially paying a cohort of landowners not to clear cut.<\/p>\n<p>The landowner gets money. The forest is healthier. Companies offset their emissions. On paper, everyone wins.<\/p>\n<p>The reality is not so clear. Carbon credit programs in general have faced withering criticism from scientists who argue that many are fatally flawed. The American Forest Foundation has taken great pains to address those worries, but not everyone is convinced. In fact, the very presence in the program of someone like Funk\u2014a man who is devoted to local forest ecosystems and deeply concerned about climate change\u2014may play into their concerns.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, the program\u2019s own monitoring suggests its approach is working: On average, its forests are growing more and better than those not enrolled.<\/p>\n<p>How It Works<\/p>\n<p>The FFCP operates in 19 states, from Minnesota to Maine to Alabama. To participate, landowners must own at least 30 acres of forest with at least 4,000 board feet per acre. They sign a contract promising not to remove more than 25 percent of their timber stocking over 20 years.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt guides you away from a high grade approach or a clear cut approach and to the sort of tending approach,\u201d said Richard Campbell, director of science and product refinement at the American Forest Foundation. \u201cTending,\u201d he said, includes \u201cthings like a forest thinning, where you remove the less healthy, less valuable trees and promote growth on larger, more valuable trees that will live for longer.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>According to Campbell, landowners can remove 5 percent of their stock every 5 years and still end up with more trees than when they started.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not a theory. These are well-proven examples. You can see it in the rapid-growing forests in the Pacific Northwest. You can see it to some degree in the Northeast \u2026 A really good example is in Central Europe, in Germany, where they\u2019ve been managing some timber stands for two [hundred] or three hundred years,\u201d Campbell said.<\/p>\n<p>Enrolled landowners get paid for each acre they own. In Central Appalachia, they earn a total of $230 per acre over the span of their 20-year enrollment.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is typically not life-changing money to these landowners, but it seems to correlate pretty closely with property tax, at least throughout most of the program,\u201d said American Forest Foundation outreach forester Tristan Kinnison.<\/p>\n<p>The FFCP also provides the landowner with an optional forest management plan. Funk, who has been trying to restore southeast Ohio\u2019s native oak and hickory forests since the 1980s, said this has been invaluable.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe need to be very careful that it\u2019s not that passive activity,\u201d Funk said. \u201cIf you let woods go, you may end up with an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.org\/en-us\/about-us\/where-we-work\/united-states\/indiana\/stories-in-indiana\/autumn-olive\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">autumn olive<\/a> plantation \u2026 invasive species that are terrible for the environment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Funk said he is committed to doing this work with or without the FFCP. Still, he said it\u2019s no question the money and management expertise have helped him and his team at Capstone accomplish much more than they would have otherwise.<\/p>\n<p>A Problem of Addition<\/p>\n<p>A carbon credit is essentially a promise: Pay this money and keep a ton of carbon out of the atmosphere. It\u2019s generally understood there should be some additional carbon removed from the atmosphere because of that credit, and only because of it. This is known as \u201cadditionality.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Studies have shown that a vast number of carbon credit programs have failed to deliver on that promise. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-53645-z\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">A 2024 meta-analysis<\/a> published in Nature found only 25 percent of those based on avoiding deforestation yielded emissions reductions, while those based on improved forest management yielded no statistically significant reductions at all.<\/p>\n<p>This story is funded by readers like you.<\/p>\n<p>Our nonprofit newsroom provides award-winning climate coverage free of charge and advertising. We rely on donations from readers like you to keep going. Please donate now to support our work.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/insideclimate.fundjournalism.org\/donate\/?amount=15&amp;campaign=7013a000003Bk97AAC&amp;frequency=monthly\" class=\"button button-red\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Donate Now<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Benedict Probst is a research leader at the Net Zero Lab at the Max Planck Institute for Innovation and Competition in Munich, and one of the authors of the 2024 study. He explained how a carbon credit program might fail on additionality<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA typical example is wind power in China. Under the Clean Development Mechanism [a carbon offset program of the Kyoto Protocol], a lot of project developers said, \u2018You know, we can\u2019t build this wind farm if we don\u2019t get this additional funding through carbon credits,\u2019\u201d Probst said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Credits were then sold based on how many fossil fuels the wind farms would replace. Buy a credit, be the reason a certain amount of oil, gas and coal doesn\u2019t get burned.<\/p>\n<p>The problem, Probst said, is that \u201cstudies later showed that there were a bunch of projects that didn\u2019t get carbon credits, but were built in similar regions.\u201d In other words, those credits probably weren\u2019t decisive in making those wind projects happen. There was no additionality.<\/p>\n<p>Low-quality credits effectively allow companies to continue emitting more than they should, and Probst said they have other knock-on effects, as well. He co-authored a recent essay in Nature arguing such credits are flooding the voluntary carbon market, depressing carbon prices and pushing the Paris climate goals farther out of reach.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The challenge is also significant for forestry-based credits.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLet\u2019s say you want to protect some forests. You need to understand what would have happened without that protection. But this \u2026 is unobservable,\u201d Probst said.<\/p>\n<p>To get around this, forestry-based programs often resort to complex, individualized models that simulate how their forests will grow in the future. They then award credits based on the projections. This \u201cex-ante\u201d approach is often unreliable, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/gcb.70527\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a recently published essay in Global Change Biology<\/a> which Probst co-authored.<\/p>\n<p>The paper states that ex-post approaches\u2014which award credits based on real observations, not simulations\u2014can be more reliable, if the data is good enough. However, \u201cthere is currently no single ex-post method that should be regarded as the definitive solution,\u201d the authors wrote.<\/p>\n<p>The FFCP does use an ex-post approach. First, it groups properties like Funk\u2019s into a cohort. Over the next 20 years, it compares growth in this cohort to a control group from the <a href=\"https:\/\/research.fs.usda.gov\/programs\/fia\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Forest Inventory and Analysis program<\/a> of the U.S. Forest Service.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2500\" height=\"1406\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Trees are planted to spell &quot;OHIO&quot; in a field near Chauncey, Ohio. Credit: Courtesy of David Funk\" class=\"wp-image-103291\" data-lazy- data-lazy- data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/OHIO-in-Field.jpg\"\/>Trees are planted to spell \u201cOHIO\u201d in a field near Chauncey, Ohio. Credit: Courtesy of David Funk<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe match for ownership type, we match for eco region, species mix, timber stocking, regeneration class\u2014all of the different things to basically try to \u2026 control for every other variable,\u201d Campbell explained. \u201cWe look at \u2026 the growing difference between those two sets of data\u2014not the initial stocking, but only the change over time as it occurs. And since we\u2019ve controlled for everything but membership in the program, we can attribute that change in stocking to the program, and then we can quantify that, and then we can turn that into carbon credits.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In short: cohort\u2019s carbon, minus the control group\u2019s carbon, equals carbon credits.<\/p>\n<p>Brent Sohngen, a professor of environmental and resource economics at the Ohio State University, said he believes the FFCP\u2019s approach to calculating additionality is \u201cstate of the art.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re \u201cusing really good data to try to sort of identify what and where landowners can achieve additional carbon,\u201d Sohngen said. \u201cIt seems pretty solid.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But not everyone shares his enthusiasm. John Sterman, a professor of system dynamics at the MIT Sloan School of Management, said he still has serious concerns.<\/p>\n<p>Sterman has developed a framework called \u201cAVID\u201d\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/mitsloan.mit.edu\/ideas-made-to-matter\/how-to-choose-carbon-offsets-actually-cut-emissions\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Additional, Verifiable, Immediate and Durable<\/a>\u2014to evaluate carbon credits. A good credit has all four qualities. Sterman is not confident the FFCP meets the bar.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf I own the land and I see this program, and I say to myself \u2026 \u2018Well, I wasn\u2019t planning on logging it for 30 years because it isn\u2019t going to be ready for market until then.\u2019 \u2026 How are you going to know?\u201d Sterman said. If people are getting paid to preserve forests they never planned on timbering, \u201cthat\u2019s the very definition of non-additional.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s where the participation of someone like Funk might raise a red flag. The program\u2019s ex-post approach did not assuage Sterman\u2019s concerns.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHow is the control group determined, and who assesses whether it is representative of the stands in the program? I\u2019m not saying there is any unethical behavior here but there is an obvious appearance of conflict if the program itself is assessing additionality and undertaking verification,\u201d he wrote in an email.<\/p>\n<p>The FFCP\u2019s credits are certified by Verra, which the AFF\u2019s Kinnison described as a leader in the field. However, Probst has written that many Verra-certified credits still fail on additionality. For Sterman, that\u2019s to be expected.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, Sterman said, the people who sell credits on the voluntary carbon market are also the ones verifying additionality. If they overestimate, they make more money\u2014and no one will punish them. He likened it to selling snake oil in the Wild West.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s no standards, there\u2019s no regulations, there\u2019s no real sanctions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Sterman said the system needs an entity similar to the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide oversight and enforcement.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t see any way to solve this problem with self-regulation, because the incentives and the opportunities for cutting corners and fraud are just too great,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>By contrast, he said, regulation would help everyone except \u201cthe small number of bad actors\u201d and increase the overall size of the market.<\/p>\n<p>Campbell declined to offer an opinion on regulation, but he agreed that standardization would help.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe need a credit to equal a credit. We need to know that \u2026 what it represents is a ton of CO2 that has been taken out of the atmosphere for an agreed upon amount of time,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Sohngen, the economist, said fraud would happen with or without regulators. He thinks the carbon market is already showing signs of improvement as bad actors are called out.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat we\u2019re seeing is a market maturing,\u201d Sohngen said. \u201cWe\u2019re seeing a lot more care being taken in those sort of additionality assessments. We\u2019re seeing better data being applied to the problem.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He dismissed the concern from Probst and others about low-quality credits depressing carbon prices, saying that\u2019s the whole point of a credit in the first place. If regulators want carbon prices to rise, he said, the solution is to simply \u201csqueeze the cap\u201d\u2014that is, further restrict emissions.<\/p>\n<p>Sohngen even said it\u2019s not so bad if credits miss on additionality. He\u2019s more frustrated that not everyone who owns forests is getting paid for it yet. In his view, they\u2019re performing an uncompensated public good.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAll of a sudden, you\u2019re going to make this guy (a company) pay a little bit of money to this guy (a landowner),\u201d Sohngen said. \u201cTo me, that\u2019s not the worst place that we\u2019re actually in.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But that flies in the face of what many people understand carbon credits to do.<\/p>\n<p>For his part, Sterman also raised concerns about the FFCP\u2019s durability.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAt best, this is committing you to not harvest for 20 years \u2026 but 20 years is a very short amount of time relative to climate dynamics,\u201d Sterman said. If all those trees get timbered in year 21, much of the carbon will go back into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<p>Campbell said that\u2019s unlikely to be an issue because of how the FFCP groups landowners into cohorts.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn order for us to lose that longevity, our landowners who have decided to make a long-term forest management commitment would have to all go completely upside down and cut their forest much harder than the landscape around it,\u201d he said. That\u2019s unlikely to happen over a meaningfully large part of the cohort.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, the FFCP is still obligated to keep the carbon on the ground for another 100 years. If it all gets chopped down, the program has to find a way to make the buyer whole again.<\/p>\n<p>But such statistical maneuvering is not enough for Sterman.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOnce you\u2019ve put CO2 in the atmosphere, it stays there for hundreds and hundreds of years, and the consequences of the warming are essentially irreversible,\u201d Sterman said. He thinks the FFCP should claw back the credit when trees are lost. But it\u2019s not clear that there\u2019s a mechanism to do so, especially without regulatory oversight.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat is so difficult and sometimes discouraging is seeing people\u2014well-intentioned, smart people\u2014putting so much time and effort and financial capital and emotional energy into climate solutions that seem like they\u2019ve got to be helpful, but, because it\u2019s such a complex dynamical system, actually, many of them turn out not to be,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>But Campbell remains committed\u2014and not, he said, for the money.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe carbon credits are the fuel for the engine that we use,\u201d Campbell said. \u201cThe machine itself, and the thing we want to have succeed, is more productive, more healthy forests. \u2026 That\u2019s also going to result in climate mitigation and climate resilience, by the way.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\tAbout This Story<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps you noticed: This story, like all the news we publish, is free to read. That\u2019s because Inside Climate News is a 501c3 nonprofit organization. We do not charge a subscription fee, lock our news behind a paywall, or clutter our website with ads. We make our news on climate and the environment freely available to you and anyone who wants it.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not all. We also share our news for free with scores of other media organizations around the country. Many of them can\u2019t afford to do environmental journalism of their own. We\u2019ve built bureaus from coast to coast to report local stories, collaborate with local newsrooms and co-publish articles so that this vital work is shared as widely as possible.<\/p>\n<p>Two of us launched ICN in 2007. Six years later we earned a Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting, and now we run the oldest and largest dedicated climate newsroom in the nation. We tell the story in all its complexity. We hold polluters accountable. We expose environmental injustice. We debunk misinformation. We scrutinize solutions and inspire action.<\/p>\n<p>Donations from readers like you fund every aspect of what we do. If you don\u2019t already, will you support our ongoing work, our reporting on the biggest crisis facing our planet, and help us reach even more readers in more places? <\/p>\n<p>Please take a moment to make a tax-deductible donation. Every one of them makes a difference.<\/p>\n<p>Thank you,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"David Funk has spent decades working to restore the native forest ecosystems of southeast Ohio. Now, he\u2019s finally&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":334801,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[192,79],"class_list":["post-334800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334800","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=334800"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334800\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/334801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=334800"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=334800"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=334800"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}