official tournament page<\/a>.<\/p>\n2025 Alfred Dunhill Championship betting tips<\/p>\n
The Banker: Branden Grace 25\/1 e\/w (Paddy Power, Sky Ber 1\/4 odds)<\/p>\n
Branden Grace and LIV Golf came under scrutiny when the South African was relegated from the LIV Tour and then re-signed on a \u201cbusiness-case\u201d by Louis Oosthuizen. This almost certainly had something to do with the new South Africa event being added this year, but Grace put injuries and poor form behind him to finish the season strongly and prove his worth.<\/p>\n
With three top 5 finishes in his last four individual starts on LIV this season, Grace finally found his mojo again, and a 5th place finish at the Saudi International is further confirmation he\u2019s in form.<\/p>\n
Now he returns to the site of his 2012 Joburg Open win, and while that was a long time ago and in a different tournament altogether, it\u2019s still a good omen.<\/p>\n
Largely, this bet is made on the basis of a really strong end to the LIV Golf season for Grace, but these top-class South African players typically return home and excel, and Grace showed that most recently at the 2020 South African Open.<\/p>\n
On his day, Grace is among the best players in this field and given the form he is in, it\u2019s very hard to ignore him, especially at a course he\u2019s already won on.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s won once on LIV and lost in another playoff since joining the breakaway league, so he\u2019s stayed competitive since the move, with a wrist injury the cause of a lot of his bad form. Seemingly over the worst of that now, we should be confident he can challenge and get the better of Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Jayden Schaper who are the two leading South African\u2019s in the betting. Ultimately, he\u2019s the class of this field, alongside his fellow Stingers GC teammate, Louis Oosthuizen, and I like his odds of a home victory again.<\/p>\n
The Outsider: Ewen Ferguson 45\/1 e\/w (Sporting Index, SpreadEx 6 Places 1\/5 Odds)<\/p>\n
I was very close to a full house of South African\u2019s this week, with Casey Jarvis the last one off my shortlist, but I just about favour Ewen Ferguson at the same odds.<\/p>\n
Ferguson promised to be one of the next big players on the DP World Tour after winning twice in 2022 and adding another title in 2024.\u00a0It hasn\u2019t quite panned out that way yet for the Scot, but he still needs to be treated as one of the better players on his day, and were it not for a playoff loss to Kristoffer Reitan earlier this year, we could be talking about a four-time winner.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s still time to round out 2025 with a win, and after finishing 10th at the Nedbank last week, where he ranked 2nd for SG Approach and 7th for SG Tee to Green, he\u2019s back on my radar. He hasn\u2019t got long to find a win before the year is out, so he will be keen to take advantage of his form, in a part of the world he\u2019s enjoyed over the years.<\/p>\n
3rd at both the Cape Town Open and SDC Championship, 4th at the Jonsson Workwear Open, and now 10th last week at the Nedbank, Ferguson clearly enjoys playing in this country, and 7th and 8th place finishes in the Magical Kenya Open further solidify a liking for African golf as a whole.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s a winner in a field that doesn\u2019t offer the most depth in the world and is 45\/1. I will take that while he\u2019s hitting the ball well.<\/p>\n
The Longshot: Deon Germishuys 125\/1 e\/w (Sky Bet 5 Places 1\/4 odds)<\/p>\n
Hennie du Plessis is an in-form South African who has finished 1st, 4th and 2nd in his last three starts and has a 5th place finish on this golf course. The problem is he is 35\/1. Deon Germishuys\u00a0finished 6th the week that du Plessis finished 4th, was the 36-hole leader there, and then two weeks later was the one that beat du Plessis in the playoff. The difference between the two? Almost 100 points in the betting.<\/p>\n
With the direct correlation alone I think Germishuys is a good bet this week, but when you factor in four-straight top 7 finishes and a win last time out, its really hard to ignore him at 125\/1 given he has that 5th place finish at this course to his name as well.<\/p>\n
Germishuys didn\u2019t quite hit the heights we expected when he first joined the DP World Tour, but a pair of 3rd place finishes at the 2023 KLM Open and 2025 Magical Kenya Open show what he can do at his best. Add in another couple of top 20 finishes at the top level, and you have a player who can challenge in this level field when he\u2019s on top form, which he\u2019s clearly working towards right now.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s won three times on the Sunshine Tour, with wins in 2022, 2024, and 2025, and now it feels like he\u2019s ready for the next step. As is the case with most of the South African players, playing at home comes with clear advantages and right now presents Germishuys best chance of victory. Taking advantage of this form before the year is out, in a co-sanctioned event, will set him up for a potentially huge year in 2026.<\/p>\n
Having seen what someone like John Parry was able to do after winning early in the season and before the end of the calendar year, Germishuys will be incredibly motivated, knowing a PGA Tour card is at the end of the road, if he can get a win on the DP World Tour and find some consistency at the top level.<\/p>\n
While he\u2019s on this run of form, he\u2019s hard to ignore at triple-digits, especially as there\u2019s further scope for him to improve at just 26 years of age.<\/p>\n
The Bonus Bet: Richard Sterne 66\/1 e\/w (BetMGM 6 Places 1\/5 Odds)<\/p>\n
Richard Sterne is a two-time course winner, having won the 2008 and 2013 renewals of the Joburg Open here, and while that was no doubt a long time ago, he\u2019s enjoying something of a career renaissance, so familiar surroundings could lead to a big win despite now being in his mid-40s.<\/p>\n
Sterne has always been a player that could compete at the top level but did the bulk of his winning back at home. His first two DP World Tour wins actually came in Spain and Wales, but after that the next four were all in his home country \u2013 two on this golf course for the Joburg Open, and one in this event at Leopard Creek.<\/p>\n
That suggests we can elevate his play when at home, and while he didn\u2019t have a chance to extend his form at the Nedbank last week, there\u2019s every reason for optimism.<\/p>\n
The last time we saw Sterne, he finished 12th at the Abu Dhabi Championship, an event he was leading after round 1, and he was still sitting in 3rd going into the weekend. Before that, though, we had also seen him finish 14th at the Genesis Championship, 3rd at the Alfred Dunhill Links, 17th in France, and 15th in Ireland.<\/p>\n
This form coincides with an excellent run of iron play, which started when he finished 10th at the NEXO Championship back in August, and has largely continued since, barring a couple of poor weeks.<\/p>\n
Combine his excellent ball-striking form, with his most recent results and his familiarity with this course and I think we have a rock-solid 66\/1 shot here.<\/p>\n
Be sure to check out my tips from the Grant Thornton Invitational<\/a>, where I\u2019ve picked out a couple of pairs I fancy to contend come Sunday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s the penultimate event of the year on the DP World Tour \u2013 but who is our expert…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":338981,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[427,99],"class_list":{"0":"post-338980","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-golf","8":"tag-golf","9":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/338980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=338980"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/338980\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/338981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=338980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=338980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=338980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}