China\u2019s two biggest networks have deployed less than 1 percent of their planned satellites, records show, a measure of how far they are falling behind Elon Musk\u2019s company SpaceX for dominance in space communications.<\/p>\n
Satellites in low Earth orbit, up to 1,200 miles above the planet, are increasingly seen as essential for driverless cars, drone warfare and military surveillance. China regards Starlink as a military threat, and Chinese companies have invested heavily in two huge networks, with nearly 27,000 satellites planned between them.<\/p>\n
One reason for the unexpectedly slow pace is that the Chinese companies have not cleared a key engineering hurdle.<\/p>\n
The first network, or megaconstellation, Qianfan, was scheduled to have about 650 satellites in space by the end of the year. But records show that the company behind the network, Shanghai Spacesail Technologies Co., has put only 90 satellites in orbit since its launches began in August.<\/p>\n
A Chinese rocket, the Long March 8, sent 18 satellites into low Earth orbit in March.<\/p>\n
Xiaoxu\/Xinhua, via Getty Images<\/p>\n
The other megaconstellation, Guowang, is even farther behind. Despite plans to launch about 13,000 satellites within the next decade, it has 34 in orbit.<\/p>\n
SpaceX has about 8,000 Starlink satellites in orbit and is expanding its lead every month, according to data from U.S. Space Force and CelesTrak<\/a>, a nonprofit group that gathers space data.<\/p>\n Chinese officials are alarmed<\/a> by SpaceX, which they viewed as inextricably linked with the Pentagon even before Mr. Musk\u2019s short-lived position in the Trump administration. Researchers for the People\u2019s Liberation Army predict that the network will become \u201cdeeply embedded in the U.S. military combat system.\u201d They envision a time when Starlink satellites connect U.S. military bases and serve as an early missile-warning and interception network.<\/p>\n Though Starlink is intended for civilian use, it has become essential for communications and coordinating drone strikes in the war in Ukraine. And SpaceX has contracts with the U.S. government to build and launch satellites, some for espionage<\/a> and others for targeting enemies<\/a> and tracking missiles. SpaceX also launches satellites built by other defense contractors.<\/p>\n China\u2019s space agencies and its aerospace companies did not respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n The Long March 8 had been seen as China\u2019s best chance to rival SpaceX\u2019s reusable rocket.<\/p>\n Jiang Jurong\/Visual China Group, via Getty Images<\/p>\n China, like the United States, recognizes the national security value of being in space. But the government is also encouraging commercial space interests and says it expects to create<\/a> a $344 billion market.<\/p>\n \u201cExploring the vast universe and building a space power is our unremitting space dream,\u201d China\u2019s top leader, Xi Jinping, said last year, according to government news media<\/a>.<\/p>\n It has not gone smoothly.<\/p>\n China hasn\u2019t solved a key rocket problem. SpaceX has.<\/p>\n One of the major reasons for China\u2019s delay is the lack of a reliable, reusable launcher. Chinese companies still launch satellites using single-use rockets. After the satellites are deployed, rocket parts tumble back to Earth or become space debris.<\/p>\n But SpaceX\u2019s workhorse rocket, the Falcon 9, is partly reusable. The rocket\u2019s bottom portion, containing the main engines, returns to Earth upright, intact and ready to be deployed for other missions. That drastically reduces costs and speeds up the time between launches.<\/p>\n This is the innovation that propelled SpaceX far ahead of competitors. Falcon 9 rockets have been used in about 500 missions, according to SpaceX.<\/p>\n But six years after the Falcon 9 began launching Starlink satellites, Chinese firms still have no answer to it.<\/p>\n A Falcon 9 rocket is seen in Cape Canaveral, Florida, U.S., in June. The partially reusable rocket is a major key to SpaceX\u2019s success.<\/p>\n Steve Nesius\/Reuters<\/p>\n Reusable rockets must withstand extreme heat during their return to base. They also have to be stable and under control with engines that can restart in different aerodynamic conditions, said Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who tracks objects in space<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThe question is not just recovering them,\u201d Dr. McDowell said, \u201cbut recovering them in a good enough state to launch them again.\u201d<\/p>\n The lack of a reusable rocket is not the only limitation. Manufacturing satellites is a complicated and time-consuming endeavor, and establishing a steady launch cadence is tricky even with reusable rockets. It took SpaceX years to work out the kinks. But experts said that the race for a reusable rocket was central to the future of the Chinese low Earth orbit constellations.<\/p>\n One Chinese government-funded model, the Long March 8, was meant to be reusable. But its developer, China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, abandoned that plan. An improved version, the Long March 8R, could \u201cgrow up\u201d to be a reliable Falcon 9 equivalent, Dr. McDowell said.<\/p>\n The government has tested nearly 20 rocket launchers in the Long March series.<\/p>\n Another potential launcher alternative is the Zhuque-3, made by the Chinese firm Landspace. The launcher conducted a liftoff-and-recovery test last year and, in another test this June, its engines fired for 45 seconds.<\/p>\n The Zhuque-3 rocket, made by the Chinese firm Landspace, completed a takeoff and landing test in September. It could one day compete with SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9.<\/p>\n Visual China Group, via Getty Images<\/p>\n A third alternative, the Tianlong-3, had a setback last year. The rocket took off briefly during what was supposed to be a static test and exploded upon impact.<\/p>\n While the Chinese firms could have a technological breakthrough as early as this year, it will still take them time to get to a reliable cadence, said Andrew Jones, a journalist who has monitored Chinese space launches for the past decade.<\/p>\n \u201cThey have to work out the kinks,\u201d Mr. Jones said.<\/p>\n That hasn\u2019t stopped China from marketing its satellite services.<\/p>\n Chinese space companies are drumming up business in countries where governments are wary of relying on Starlink satellites or looking for better prices.<\/p>\n Shanghai Spacesail Technologies Co. says it is negotiating with 30 countries over contracts for access to its Qianfan megaconstellation.<\/p>\n