{"id":348061,"date":"2025-12-14T10:41:09","date_gmt":"2025-12-14T10:41:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/348061\/"},"modified":"2025-12-14T10:41:09","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T10:41:09","slug":"us-wargames-played-out-scenarios-for-maduros-fall-none-of-them-ended-well-for-venezuela-venezuela","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/348061\/","title":{"rendered":"US wargames played out scenarios for Maduro\u2019s fall. None of them ended well for Venezuela | Venezuela"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nicol\u00e1s Maduro<\/a> is chased out of office by a massive popular revolt but the Venezuelan military takes to the streets, turning its guns on the civilians who have brought him down.<\/p>\n

A palace coup sends Venezuela\u2019s authoritarian leader into exile, sparking a bloody power struggle between members of his disintegrating regime.<\/p>\n

Maduro or a key ally is assassinated by a US \u201cdecapitation\u201d strike but \u2013 as foreign soldiers commandeer Caracas and key airports and ports \u2013 leftwing insurgents tighten their grip on the country\u2019s mineral-rich hinterlands and regime loyalists launch guerrilla-style attacks on oil refineries and pipelines.<\/p>\n

These three scenarios were all contemplated six years ago during US government \u201cwar games\u201d designed to predict what a post-Maduro Venezuela might look like if the South American dictator was overthrown by an uprising, a palace revolution or a foreign attack. None of them ended well.<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, with at least 40 fighter jets on its deck, off the coast of Saint Thomas, US Virgin Islands. The US has deployed armed forces in Caribbean waters as it exerts pressure on the Venezuelan president. Photograph: 2025 Planet Labs PBC\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019d have prolonged chaos \u2026 with no clear way out,\u201d said Douglas Farah, a Latin America expert whose national security consulting firm was part of those 2019 strategising efforts.<\/p>\n

In all three of the discussion-based simulations, the upheaval triggered a fresh exodus of refugees across Venezuela\u2019s borders with Colombia and Brazil, as citizens fled skirmishes between rival rebel groups or foreign occupiers and loyalist troops.<\/p>\n

\u201cEveryone wrestling with this issue [is] sort of hoping that you could wave a magic wand and have a new government [in Venezuela],\u201d said Farah. \u201cI think the reason it hasn\u2019t happened is because people sat down and thought: \u2018Wait a minute. What the hell are we getting ourselves into?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

The Venezuelan politicians battling to end Maduro\u2019s 12-year rule reject claims that his downfall would inevitably thrust their country into a maelstrom of bloodshed and retribution.<\/p>\n

Mar\u00eda Corina Machado \u2013 the Nobel laureate and leader of the political movement widely believed to have beaten Maduro in last year\u2019s presidential election \u2013 called claims Maduro\u2019s exit could plunge Venezuela into violence similar to Syria\u2019s civil war \u201cutterly unfounded\u201d.<\/p>\n

A rally of the Bolivarian national militia in support of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, amid rising tensions with the United States. Photograph: Leonardo Fern\u00e1ndez Viloria\/Reuters<\/p>\n

\u201cVenezuela is a country with a long democratic culture and a society that is set on recovering that democracy,\u201d she told the Guardian in Oslo on Friday after slipping out of her country to receive the peace prize.<\/p>\n

Miguel Pizarro, another opposition leader, dismissed the suggestion Venezuela was doomed to become a South American version of Iraq, Libya or Haiti if Maduro was toppled. \u201cThe truth is that Venezuelans took their decision [in last year\u2019s election] \u2026 it was Venezuela\u2019s greatest ever social consensus.\u201d<\/p>\n

Allies of Donald Trump \u2013 who has spent recent months ratcheting up the pressure on Maduro with a massive military deployment, deadly strikes on boats in the Caribbean<\/a> and the seizure of an oil tanker \u2013 also play down the dangers of a possible US intervention.<\/p>\n

But many experts and South American diplomats are sceptical things will go so smoothly \u2013 irrespective of how Maduro\u2019s deposition comes about.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there\u2019s a popular uprising, the military is probably gonna be very defensive, very violent and reactionary to the protests on the street. [You\u2019ll have] a lot of people dead,\u201d warned Farah, who thought, in that scenario, it was possible Colombian guerrillas, including the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) might enter the fray on the side of Venezuela\u2019s nominally leftwing regime.<\/p>\n

Nobel peace prize laureate and Venezuelan opposition leader Mar\u00eda Corina Machado speaking in Oslo, Norway, on 11 December. Photograph: Leonhard F\u00f6ger\/Reuters<\/p>\n

A coup had the potential to produce \u201ca huge vacuum of power\u201d with rival armed actors battling to fill Maduro\u2019s shoes. \u201cYou might have four different folks saying: \u2018OK, now I\u2019m in charge,\u2019\u201d Farah said.<\/p>\n

If foreign troops were deployed, they would probably be able to take control of big cities and infrastructure such as ports and airports. But they faced the possibility of asymmetric attacks from government loyalists or Colombian rebels and a protracted battle to regain control of gold mining regions already under the influence of the ELN<\/a>. \u201c[Defeating them is] a long-term proposition that would require a lot of money, a lot troops and probably some casualties,\u201d Farah said.<\/p>\n

Whatever happened, Farah feared post-Maduro Venezuela was likely to suffer \u201ca huge mess that would last a while\u201d. \u201cNone of this [is] going to be resolved in three weeks. You\u2019re talking years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Farah is not the only observer who frets that sudden political change could have dire consequences for the oil-rich South American country.<\/p>\n

Last week the chief foreign policy adviser to Brazil\u2019s president, Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, warned upheaval in Venezuela could transform the region into a Vietnam-style \u201cwar zone\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Juan Gonz\u00e1lez, the White House\u2019s top Latin America official under Joe Biden, also said he feared the potential for violent retaliation.<\/p>\n

\u201cI have this recurring dream about Venezuela \u2026 of Maduro getting dragged through the streets like Benito Mussolini,\u201d Gonz\u00e1lez said of the Italian dictator who was captured while trying to flee to Switzerland in 1945 and shot by a firing squad.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou just never know what the trigger is \u2026 [Muammar] Gaddafi was very much in power until he wasn\u2019t,\u201d Gonz\u00e1lez added of Libya\u2019s former leader, who also met a grisly end after being captured by his enemies.<\/p>\n

Gonz\u00e1lez hoped a negotiated solution could still be found despite the escalating tensions.<\/p>\n

\u201cNegotiations are long and hard fought and require compromise. But history shows us that they\u2019re the most effective way to actually promote a transition,\u201d he said, warning that toppling Maduro didn\u2019t necessarily mean the situation would improve. \u201cIt could actually get worse,\u201d he said, pondering what might happen if a regime hardliner such as interior minister Diosdado Cabello, who runs Venezuela\u2019s repressive security forces, succeeded Maduro.<\/p>\n

Farah thought a temporary power-sharing deal might be one way to avoid the \u201cmassive fracturing\u201d of Venezuela between rival factions. But for that to happen, difficult choices would have to be made, possibly including letting \u201cmassive human rights violators\u201d off the hook and giving Maduro safe passage out of the country and some form of immunity for alleged crimes against humanity.<\/p>\n

An indication that the opposition might accept some such compromises came last week when the Washington Post reported<\/a> that Machado\u2019s opposition believed only a \u201c\u2018limited\u2019 purge of top Maduro officials would be necessary\u201d once he was gone.<\/p>\n

But many of the alternatives were even uglier. If the security situation spiralled out of control post-Maduro, Farah feared Washington\u2019s temptation might be to engage mercenary groups and private military contractors, rather than put US boots on the ground.<\/p>\n

Demonstrators scuffle with security forces during an opposition rally in Caracas in 2017. Photograph: Carlos Garc\u00eda Rawlins\/Reuters<\/p>\n

\u201c[That] gets you closer to an Iraqi-type scenario, where you have multiple non-state groups doing multiple things on the ground that no one has control over,\u201d Farah warned.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf things go south, that\u2019s one of the options they will look at,\u201d he predicted, \u201cand that would be very damaging\u201d.<\/p>\n

Additional reporting by Camille Rodr\u00edguez Montilla in Oslo<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nicol\u00e1s Maduro is chased out of office by a massive popular revolt but the Venezuelan military takes to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":348062,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,3,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":["post-348061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-news","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=348061"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348061\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/348062"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=348061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=348061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=348061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}