{"id":366288,"date":"2025-12-23T21:48:10","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T21:48:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/366288\/"},"modified":"2025-12-23T21:48:10","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T21:48:10","slug":"week-16-qb-notebook-matthew-stafford-is-still-rolling-toward-mvp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/366288\/","title":{"rendered":"Week 16 QB Notebook: Matthew Stafford Is Still Rolling Toward MVP"},"content":{"rendered":"

Welcome to the QB Notebook, a column covering the most interesting passers, plays, and story lines from the week in NFL quarterbacking. In this edition: quieting doubts about Stafford\u2019s MVP case, asking whether Malik Willis may be in line for a starting job, and more.<\/p>\n

Welcome to The Ringer’s quarterback notebook, where I\u2019ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking\u2014from the most interesting passers, plays, and story lines, to some other stuff that caught my eye watching film. In this week\u2019s notebook, we\u2019ll be dissecting the case against Matthew Stafford\u2019s MVP candidacy, examining what makes Drake Maye so much fun to watch, and more. Let\u2019s talk quarterbacks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The case against the case against Matthew Stafford for MVP<\/p>\n

Matthew Stafford is still the MVP favorite after the Rams lost in Seattle on Thursday night, but the fact that L.A. has dropped out of first place in the NFC West has cast some doubt on his qualifications for the award. Based on historical precedent, winning your division is kind of a prerequisite for winning MVP, so finishing third in the NFC West could derail Stafford\u2019s campaign. Only three quarterbacks have ever won the award after their teams failed to win their division: Peyton Manning in 2008, Steve McNair in 2005 (who was co-MVP with Manning) and Johnny Unitas in 1967<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know how much that argument resonates, though, given the year Stafford is having. The idea that he hasn\u2019t won enough to deserve the award is absurd. The Rams have won 11 games and will likely end the season with 13 victories, with matchups left against Atlanta and Arizona. Since 2000, teams with the eventual MVP winners have won an average of 12.9 games, per TruMedia. Division winners have averaged under 12 over that same span, so Stafford and the Rams have won more than enough games to forgo typical voting standards.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Had Stafford played a bigger role in L.A.\u2019s losses, the division argument would be stronger. But he leads the NFL in expected points added and yards per dropback and ranks third in success rate, per TruMedia, and no quarterback in the NFL has been better in his team\u2019s losses this year than Stafford. That was true again in the Rams\u2019 biggest L of the season. Stafford may have played his best game of 2025 in Seattle, dropping 457 yards and three touchdowns on one of the NFL’s best pass defenses. That performance should debunk the idea that he\u2019s been propped up by his (very good) supporting cast. Sean McVay\u2019s play-calling, the offensive line, and Puka Nacua and Davante Adams have certainly made Stafford\u2019s job easier, but the veteran quarterback has elevated all of those pieces around him. We saw several examples of that against the Seahawks. On this 54-yard play, he fools linebacker Ernest Jones with a no-look pass, leaving Nacua open for a long catch and run.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He got Nacua open again for an early touchdown with another no-looker\u2014and be sure to check out Stafford\u2019s little shimmy after the play.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

You could convince me Stafford is using the Dune voice<\/a> to control these defenders. Watch Julian Love, the safety to the bottom of the screen, in this next clip. Stafford turns him around with a quick head nod, which prevents Love from making a play on a deep throw to the sideline.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Here Stafford escapes pressure and makes no-look throws on the move to his left.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The misdirection slows up Ty Okada just enough to get Konata Mumpfield open for another chunk play. Stafford looks as if he\u2019s gearing up to throw back inside before leading Mumpfield with a perfectly thrown ball.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Then Stafford capped off the night with a 41-yard touchdown to Nacua, another no-look throw on a deep in-breaker.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Most quarterbacks don\u2019t put five plays like this on film all season. Stafford packed them all into one night. There isn\u2019t another passer playing the position quite like this, and he\u2019s doing it on the best offense in the league. How\u2019s that for an MVP case?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nobody throws a better ball than Drake Maye\u00a0<\/p>\n

There\u2019s so much to Maye\u2019s game that\u2019s just awesome. The way he moves in the pocket, the way he throws with anticipation, his efficient decision-making\u2014all the subtleties of quarterbacking that get us football nerds flustered. But by far the coolest aspect of his game is one even the most casual fan can appreciate: he just has an aesthetically pleasing way of throwing. He\u2019s the kind of quarterback you see a few passes from and know exactly what you\u2019re witnessing.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Maye has the big arm that all of the modern dual-threat quarterbacks possess, but he\u2019s also got the touch and precision of the pocket passers who dominated the NFL\u2019s last generation. It\u2019s a rare combination that creates a sort of optical illusion when the ball leaves his hands. Maye\u2019s able to generate touch without really altering his throw motion.\u00a0<\/p>\n

His delivery is consistent across throws, no matter how much effort they might require. He can drive a ball to a receiver running a deep in-breaker with a flick of his wrist:<\/p>\n

Or snap off a quick pass to the perimeter, in a tight window, without adding extra oomph to the throw. This came on fourth down in crunch time:\u00a0<\/p>\n

The delivery always looks the same. That\u2019s why he\u2019s so remarkably accurate. Watching him throw is like watching a great 3-point shooter maintain their form no matter how tight the defense is. Maye is the Steph Curry of NFL quarterbacks. He\u2019s not just an expert marksman\u2014from any range\u2014he can also create his own shot when needed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This may come off as a hot take, but based on what I\u2019ve seen on tape this season, I think he\u2019s the most accurate quarterback in the NFL right now. There are a few passers who can match his touch and precision, and there are some who can generate more velocity, but nobody is throwing a more catchable ball.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The futility of Justin Herbert\u2019s MVP hope<\/p>\n

If they handed out MVP awards based on overcoming obstacles, Herbert would be the overwhelming favorite. He\u2019s led the Chargers back to the playoffs for a third time in four years and still has a shot at earning the first division title of his career, all while playing behind the worst offensive line in the NFL. Herbert\u2019s been pressured and hit more than any quarterback in the league. He\u2019s faced quick pressure (under 2 seconds) on more dropbacks than any quarterback, per Pro Football Focus. The Chargers are last in ESPN\u2019s pass block win rate<\/a> and only the Browns have been worse in pass protection based on PFF\u2019s grading. If that poor play weren\u2019t bad enough, this unit might lead the league in mental mistakes. Sometimes, you can\u2019t help but laugh.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Couldn’t figure out why the Chargers center goes left here, so I listened to broadcast audio and lol<\/p>\n

Herbert tells the TE he’s hot if Luvu (4) comes, so the OL should be working opposite. <\/p>\n

The center Bozeman points left just before the snap. <\/p>\n

Herbert: No! <\/p>\n

Bozeman: Gdi<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd0a pic.twitter.com\/WwyLgG3UGM<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) October 6, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Herbert\u2019s been getting pummeled all season, but he just keeps showing up every week and doing stuff like this:\u00a0<\/p>\n

Herbert might be the only quarterback in the league who\u2019s built for this particular brand of hell. His pocket movement, processing, and tolerance for punishment is a rare combination, and he needed all of that on Sunday as his line was beaten up by the Cowboys\u2019 crappy defense. Despite being pressured on 42.4 percent of his dropbacks, per TruMedia, Herbert wasn\u2019t sacked once and had just two throws charted as off target. He averaged 0.46 EPA per dropback when pressured, the third best mark of the week behind only Caleb Williams and Brock Purdy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There isn\u2019t a quarterback who\u2019s more valuable to his team than Herbert, which is the crux of his MVP argument. And it\u2019s a damn good one considering what the \u201cV\u201d in the acronym stands for. Unfortunately, that\u2019s not how this award is typically handed out. Voters measure value by statistical production, and Herbert\u2019s league-average numbers aren\u2019t going to satisfy them.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a world in which I\u2019d feel more compelled to argue on Herbert\u2019s behalf, but it feels like a worthless endeavor given what he\u2019s about to face over the next two weeks. The Chargers get the Texans on Saturday, and Houston\u2019s unstoppable defensive line could set records for pressure and sack rate against L.A.\u2019s very movable offensive line. Then, if Herbert can get through that game in one piece, he\u2019ll see a Broncos defense that pressured him on nearly 50 percent of his dropbacks in their Week 3 matchup. Herbert\u2019s already been sacked 49 times this season; he could hit the 60 mark after those two games. So enjoy the MVP buzz while you can, Herbert fans. It may not last much longer.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Panthers have figured out what a Bryce Young offense looks like<\/p>\n

Young notched the biggest win of his career on Sunday, a 23-20 victory over the Buccaneers with a division lead on the line, so I figured I\u2019d show him and the Panthers some love this week. The 2023 first-overall pick is playing solid football, and Carolina\u2019s coaching staff has set him up for success. Those are the sorts of things other fanbases may take for granted, but it\u2019s been awhile since they\u2019ve happened for the Panthers\u2014hell, probably since David Tepper bought the team in 2018.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll admit I didn\u2019t believe it was possible. Young\u2019s size and lack of top-end physical talent felt like barriers to building a viable offense, but second-year coach Dave Canales has proven me wrong this season. And he did it using a familiar model for offenses that are led by quarterbacks of average ability: honing in on the thing they do best and maximizing their opportunities to do it. For Young, that\u2019s throwing perimeter go balls. Only five quarterbacks have targeted go routes more often this season, per TruMedia. He\u2019s up to 47 go-ball attempts on the season after throwing seven in the win over the Bucs. Young hit on three of them in the win, including a 22-yard touchdown pass to rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan.<\/p>\n

And the 34-yard pass to Jalen Coker that put Carolina in range for the game-winning field goal.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Like a lot of shorter quarterbacks, Young is more comfortable seeing and making throws outside of the numbers. Here\u2019s a passing map of all of his \u201cbig-time throws,\u201d via Pro Football Focus. Just two of them have been aimed inside the numbers, and only one was thrown to the intermediate part of the field.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Compare that to this map of his \u201cturnover-worthy throws\u201d over the past two seasons, where there\u2019s a higher concentration of attempts to the middle of the field.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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I see a lot of similarities between Young and Jalen Hurts, another quarterback who avoids the middle of the field, and how their respective offenses function around them. Both lead run-first attacks where the primary goal isn\u2019t to set up play-action passes (which typically attack the middle of the field) but rather one-on-one matchups for receivers on the outside.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Panthers lack the top-end talent Philadelphia has around its quarterback, so the ceiling for Young\u2019s production is much lower. But they\u2019ve figured out how to make Young\u2019s skill set work for them by leaning into what he does well and avoiding what he doesn\u2019t do so well. What a novel concept.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This Next Gen Stats passing map made me Google Malik Willis\u2019s contract\"\"<\/p>\n

Willis\u2019s contract expires this offseason, if you\u2019re wondering, and I bet a few NFL general managers were after watching Willis fill in for Jordan Love against Chicago. Packers coach Matt LaFleur wasn\u2019t dialing up the most complex of passing concepts for Willis, but the fourth-year pro made some genuinely impressive throws. Here\u2019s a cut-up of all 17 of his dropbacks from Saturday night:\u00a0<\/p>\n

It will be fascinating to see how the market for Willis shakes out in the offseason, assuming the Packers don\u2019t try to sign him to a backup deal. I\u2019d imagine Willis will be looking for an opportunity to compete for a starting job, and there should be a few teams willing to give him a shot at being a bridge quarterback with the potential to develop into a long-term option. He has a lot of rough edges in his game that need smoothing out\u2014pocket presence and accuracy are the big ones\u2014but he\u2019s got a 95th-percentile arm and 99th-percentile rushing chops. He\u2019ll also be coming off two years of development under LaFleur, who runs a version of the Shanahan offense that\u2019s so popular across the league.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll call my shot right now: in the offseason, Willis will team up with LaFleur\u2019s old coaching buddy Mike McDaniel in Miami and will wind up starting for the Dolphins in Week 1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The best throw I saw this week (that didn\u2019t count)<\/p>\n

I shrieked when I saw Dak Prescott make this throw on Sunday. And I don\u2019t care that it was negated by a holding call, it deserves to be celebrated. Prescott is tripped up by his own left tackle\u2014who also got flagged for the hold, by the way\u2014and still manages to generate enough velocity to get the ball to the back of the end zone. This is the point right before Prescott releases the throw. Ryan Flournoy hasn\u2019t cleared the defender yet.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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You\u2019re a madman, Dak.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The worst throw I saw this week<\/p>\n

I\u2019m still not sure what Bo Nix saw here. The Jaguars have one zone defender working underneath Courtland Sutton and one working over the top. With no receiver running to the flat, the cornerback, Jarrian Jones, can sink with Sutton\u2019s route. I\u2019m not in the meeting rooms with Sean Payton and Nix, but I can\u2019t imagine the Broncos coach wants his quarterback working the single receiver side when the defense has the numbers advantage there. These are the mistakes that make it difficult to fully buy Denver as championship contenders, no matter how good the roster and coaching staff may be.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Steven Ruiz<\/p>\n

<\/a>Steven Ruiz has been an NFL analyst and QB ranker at The Ringer since 2021. He\u2019s a D.C. native who roots for all the local teams except for the Commanders. As a child, he knew enough ball to not pick the team owned by Dan Snyder\u2014but not enough to avoid choosing the Panthers.