Caleb Williams (@ SF)<\/p>\n
The 49ers just allowed Philip Rivers to finish as the QB13 last week, and have allowed two top-five QB finishes since Week 10. Caleb Williams had a pretty forgettable performance in Week 16\u2019s win over the Packers until the Bears\u2019 final two possessions of the game, when he completed 7-of-9 passes for 99 yards and two touchdowns while leading them to an overtime win. Williams has finished as a QB16 or higher in three-straight games and draws the 11th-easiest matchup on the week for opposing QBs. Williams has dropped back over 35 times in three of his last four games and has had some sneaky rushing upside at various points in the season. With Brock Purdy also playing at a high level, this game is setting up to be a potential shootout between two of the NFC\u2019s best.<\/p>\n
Jauan Jennings (vs. CHI)<\/p>\n
Jauan Jennings has finished as a top-20 PPR receiver or better in four-straight games and has found the end zone in each game. The way the receiver position is being impacted by potentially awful quarterback play this week makes Jennings a pretty safe bet to finish as a top-24 receiver or better again this week, and the 52.5 total is currently the second-highest projected total on the Week 17 slate. In the event that George Kittle (ankle) were to miss this week, Jennings could also be in line for a slight uptick in targets after averaging 6.0 targets\/gm over the last four weeks.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n A deep dive looking at players who are running unsustainably hot or cold headed into fantasy championship week, and what it means for your Week 17 start-sit decisions. <\/p>\n \ud83d\udfe1 \u27a1\ufe0f Medium ConfidenceJared Goff (@ MIN)<\/p>\n I\u2019m indebted to Jared Goff for the fantasy performance he put on in Week 16 against the Steelers that helped propel me to a championship. That said, I\u2019m not rushing to start him in Week 17 on the road against the Vikings. For starters, defensive coordinator Brian Flores has put opposing QBs in a blender as of late. Over the last five games, opposing QBs are averaging just 6.9 fantasy points per game against the Vikings \u2014 the lowest total of any team in the league. Secondly, J.J. McCarthy (hand) has already been ruled out for this week\u2019s game, meaning rookie UDFA Max Brosmer will make his second start of the season. Brosmer struggled in his first start in Week 13 against the Seahawks, throwing for 126-0-4 on 30 passes. Things went better for him in Week 16 against the Giants, but there\u2019s no reason to expect the Vikings to push the Lions into passing any more than they have to in this one. A tough defensive matchup, coupled with a positive game script, makes Goff difficult to trust this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) was also listed as a DNP on Monday and was limited on Tuesday, which is something to watch for.<\/p>\n Blake Corum (@ ATL)<\/p>\n Blake Corum has found modest success over the last four weeks since he began eating into Kyren Williams\u2019 workload. Since Week 13, Corum has seen an 18 percent opportunity share to Williams\u2019 28 percent opportunity share, with most of his looks coming on the ground. Over that four-game stretch, Corum has rushed for 47-328-5 while averaging an impressive 7.5 yards per carry. Despite seeing 20 fewer carries than Williams over that span, Corum has managed 24 more yards on the ground. Corum and Williams have both seen six carries inside the five-yard line over that span, with both also converting three of those carries for scores. The Falcons have a stout run defense and have allowed the fewest PPR points per game to opposing running backs since Week 12. That said, Corum\u2019s volume (11.8 opps\/gm) over the last four weeks makes him an intriguing play if you\u2019re desperate for a player with some legitimate upside.<\/p>\n Tyjae Spears (vs. NO)<\/p>\n Tyjae Spears saw a season-high 13 carries in Week 16 against the Chiefs and turned those into 52 yards and a touchdown. He also caught five passes for 53 yards and has seen five or more targets in three of his last five games. Tony Pollard has been a non-factor in the passing game for most of the season and hasn\u2019t seen just four targets in his last four games combined. The Saints have allowed 21.9 points per game to opposing RBs over their last five weeks, and this game has the potential to turn into a sneaky shootout. Spears could have some value as a top-36 RB\/FLEX play this week.<\/p>\n Stefon Diggs (@ NYJ)<\/p>\n The combination of poor quarterback play and good teams facing awful teams in Week 17 makes life tough in the wide receiver streets. Stefon Diggs had caught just eight passes for 72 scoreless yards from Weeks 12 to 15, but popped up for a 9-138-0 line in Week 16\u2019s win against the Ravens. While the game script certainly drove a lot of that production, this week\u2019s game against a bottom-five secondary could be an opportunity for Diggs to hit some key incentives in his contract. The veteran receiver needs four more receptions to trigger a $500k bonus (80 receptions), and 131 receiving yards to trigger another $500k bonus (1,000 yards), which makes him an interesting player to consider for this week. If Drake Maye goes out of his way to get Diggs the ball this week, it should pay off nicely for fantasy managers.<\/p>\n Jake Ferguson (@ WSH)<\/p>\n Over the last four weeks, Jake Ferguson has figured as the TE18, TE10, TE40, and TE34. He\u2019s gone over 36 yards just once over that span and hasn\u2019t found the end zone since Week 11. It\u2019s been a tough haul for Ferguson as of late, but this week he faces a Commanders team he went 7-29-2 against in Week 7, while seeing seven targets. Despite his recent struggles, Ferguson has remained heavily involved in the Cowboys\u2019 offense. Since Week 13, Ferguson ranks eighth in snaps (200), fifth among TEs in routes run (129), and 11th in targets (21). While his production has slowed as of late, Ferguson has been heavily utilized by the Cowboys all season. He currently ranks in the top five among tight ends in targets (98), receptions (80), and touchdowns (7). His recent struggles may very well come to an end this week against one of the worst secondaries football has to offer.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Eric Samulski breaks down his fantasy football defense rankings for Week 17 of the NFL season<\/p>\n \ud83d\udd34 \u2b07\ufe0f Low ConfidenceJustin Herbert (vs. HOU)<\/p>\n Justin Herbert finished as the QB3 in Week 16, but before last week, Herbert hadn\u2019t finished any higher than QB17 from Weeks 10 to 15. Last week against the Cowboys, Herbert did what nearly every quarterback does, which was take advantage of a porous secondary on his way to a big outing. This week, Herbert draws a tough home matchup against a Texans defense that has allowed an average of 15.2 points per game to opposing QBs since Week 12. It\u2019s the eighth-lowest total for fantasy points allowed to QBs over that span. Herbert has been without his two starting tackles for much of this season, which has been devastating for the Chargers\u2019 passing game. Houston\u2019s 41 sacks on the year are tied for the sixth-most in the league, and the 5.2 net yards per pass attempt they\u2019re allowing are second-lowest, trailing only Denver (5.1). If Herbert got your team to this point, don\u2019t count on him to lead you to a championship in Week 17.<\/p>\n Ladd McConkey (vs. HOU)<\/p>\n Look, I get it. Ladd McConkey has finished as a top-24 PPR receiver in three of his last six games, and worked out well for you in Week 16 against the Cowboys. So did the last guy I just mentioned. But McConkey, when he does hit, has been on a touchdown-dependent streak as the 18 PPR points he amassed from his three scores since Week 10 have made up 30.3 percent of his total fantasy points. McConkey has seen six or fewer targets in every game over that span and has gone for 43 or fewer yards in five of those games. I\u2019ve already touched on the Texans\u2019 stout pass defense and why I\u2019ll be fading Herbert in Week 17. McConkey\u2019s touchdown-dependent ways make him another player who is hard to trust in the biggest week of the year.<\/p>\n Justin Jefferson (vs. DET)<\/p>\n Justin Jefferson has finished as the WR26 or worse in all but one game since Week 10. Last week, the Vikings\u2019 WR1 miraculously finished with 14.5 PPR points, which was good for WR18 on the week, but Jefferson feels impossible to trust in Week 17. Throughout this season, we have learned that Jefferson, who was a consensus top-five pick in fantasy drafts, is anything but QB-proof. There have been five separate occasions this season in which Jefferson has finished with less than 10 PPR points, which marks the most sub-10 point games he\u2019s had since his rookie year. Furthermore, Jefferson will have to find a way to make things work with Max Brosmer under center, with J.J. McCarthy already ruled out due to a hand injury. Jefferson is averaging 11.7 PPR points per game this season, which ranks 34th among receivers. His lowest PPR per-game finish in any prior year came in his rookie year, when he was the WR9 in PPR\/gm. To make matters worse here, the Lions are allowing the most fantasy points per game (46.9) to opposing wide receivers since Week 12. This is, by all accounts, a smash spot for any other receiver with any other quarterback under center, but we\u2019ve been given little reason to believe the Brosmer\/Jefferson duo will lead us to fantasy glory this week.<\/p>\n Taysom Hill (@ TENN)<\/p>\n After being completely irrelevant for 16 weeks of the fantasy season, Taysom Hill popped up for a vintage performance in last week\u2019s win over the Jets, forcing us to wonder if one more big outing could be in store for Week 17. Hill did a little bit of everything in last week\u2019s win, throwing for 38 yards and one touchdown while rushing for 12-42-0, and catching another four passes for 36 yards on six targets. The outing came in what is likely his last home game with the Saints, which begs the question: Was last week a scripted farewell for Hill, or could he see another busy outing against the Titans? It\u2019s a nearly impossible question to answer, but it is worth noting that the Saints entered last week with their top three running backs all on injured reserve. If Alvin Kamara (ankle) returns this week, he would be the obvious favorite to lead the team in carries, but Audric Estime and Evan Hull are on notice after seeing five carries apiece last week. Hill entered last week with an eight percent opportunity share and hadn\u2019t scored more than 6.1 PPR points in any game. While it\u2019s tempting to chase last week\u2019s points, it\u2019s hard to say with any amount of certainty that Hill sees double-digit touches again this week. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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