{"id":36834,"date":"2025-07-25T17:42:26","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T17:42:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/36834\/"},"modified":"2025-07-25T17:42:26","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T17:42:26","slug":"theres-a-sweet-spot-for-tariffs-markets-could-revolt-if-trump-is-way-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/36834\/","title":{"rendered":"There\u2019s a sweet spot for tariffs. Markets could revolt if Trump is way off"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>      New York<br \/>\n      CNN<br \/>\n        \u00a0\u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmcw25mx4009s26oudjp4f4cl@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            US stocks are floating near all-time highs as Wall Street maintains cautious optimism that Washington might ink more <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/07\/23\/business\/trump-trade-deals\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">trade deals<\/a>, avoiding a worst-case scenario of extraordinarily high tariffs and enabling the resilient economy to continue chugging along.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdismnpu001e356n8k1g2wik@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Stocks were higher on Friday. The Dow rose 70 points, or 0.15%. The broader S&amp;P 500 gained 0.25% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2%.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdite46y0007356ny7n1s3kh@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The Dow is less than 300 points away from hitting an all-time high. The blue-chip index needs to finish the day with a gain of 0.72% to hit a fresh record, which would be its first this year.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdivz9e90000356nst2kk9gp@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            President Donald Trump late Tuesday announced a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/07\/22\/business\/japan-trade-agreement-us\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">trade deal with Japan<\/a>, signaling that the United States might be open to further negotiations with other trading partners. The S&amp;P 500 has notched four consecutive records this week as global markets have welcomed progress on trade ahead of Trump\u2019s self-imposed August 1 deadline.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdiwyrz60001356nil4osfy0@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The deal with Japan includes a 15% tariff on imports from the nation, which is less than the previously threatened 25% levy. A 15% tariff is still relatively high, but investors were relieved to see that level compared to previous threats, Eric Freedman, CIO at US Bank Asset Management Group, said.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdita25q0001356nsnfrjpt2@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            As stocks grind higher, markets are adjusting to the prospect of Trump\u2019s tariffs staying in place, Freedman said. But a surprisingly high levy on a major trading partner like the European Union could send a jolt through markets that triggers a downturn.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmditozti000g356nas9tfgss@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cThe key is will we see that effective tariff rate hover around the 15 to 17% level, or will it be north of 20%?\u201d he said.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdiwcl8w0001356n558a0lmj@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cMarkets are not priced for major trading partner effective tariff rates north of 20%,\u201d he said. \u201cThe European negotiations remain paramount. That\u2019s something that markets are very, very fixated on right now.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdizrkgs0006356nt90bnj0f@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Stocks earlier this month dropped lower after Trump announced plans for a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/07\/11\/investing\/us-stock-market\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">35% tariff on Canada<\/a>, highlighting how markets could react negatively to high tariff rates.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdizm58v0000356n284yc2zh@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Trump on Friday said that there\u2019s a \u201c50-50 chance\u201d he will strike a trade deal with the European Union ahead of a deadline for imposing hefty tariffs on the US\u2019 close economic partner.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdiznwsa0004356nj4xz8yud@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cI would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that,\u201d Trump said at the White House. \u201cBut they want to make a deal very badly.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdiznvzl0002356nzvy0933k@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Trump has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/07\/12\/business\/trump-tariff-mexico-european-union\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">vowed to impose<\/a> 30% tariffs on the EU on August 1 should the two sides fail to reach an agreement.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdito83i0002356nhrl9begd@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The Dow on Wednesday posted its best daily gain in one month. The Nasdaq this week closed above 21,000 points for the first time ever. The S&amp;P 500 has notched 10 record highs in the past month.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdit0brg0000356nwhtye162@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Stocks have marched higher, supported by a de-escalation in global trade tensions, better-than-expected economic data and healthy corporate earnings.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdiwh6kj000a356nmmuuzcky@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            About 34% of companies in the S&amp;P 500 have reported earnings results for the second quarter, with 80% posting earnings that beat expectations, according to FactSet data.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmditozti000e356n4oyifwqx@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cTrump\u2019s Tariff Turmoil appears to be subsiding,\u201d Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said in a note.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdiwe4s90006356nhen76t4k@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            But stocks are historically expensive, and markets are vulnerable to a negative trade surprise.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdit24w40008356nz3im52hm@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Wall Street in April was caught off-guard by Trump\u2019s enormous \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariffs, which sent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/04\/02\/business\/us-stock-market\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">stocks plunging<\/a>. Investors are optimistic that the August 1 deadline will provide more clarity and less concern, though there\u2019s room for miscalculation.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdiweb5j0009356ngz1e7i3r@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The S&amp;P 500 hasn\u2019t posted a daily gain or loss of more than 1% in one month, which is a sign that momentum is slowing down.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdiwtjs10000356neh13ddrj@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cWe had hoped that much of the tariff uncertainty would have been resolved by now,\u201d David Lefkowitz, head of US Equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdiwx7xx000b356nrj6sh2hf@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cPlus, we can\u2019t rule out that the president will continue to escalate his tariff rhetoric until the markets send a signal that he is going too far,\u201d he said.\n    <\/p>\n<p>       <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gettyimages-2225925945.jpg\" alt=\"Container ships are seen at the container terminal at Lianyungang port, in China's eastern Jiangsu province in the early morning on July 24, 2025.\" class=\"image__dam-img image__dam-img--loading\" onload=\"this.classList.remove('image__dam-img--loading')\" onerror=\"imageLoadError(this)\" height=\"1333\" width=\"2000\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdislhii0019356nq9tllw2c@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The Dow this week has flirted with closing at a record high, which would be its first since December. \u201cExtreme greed\u201d was the sentiment driving markets on Friday, according to CNN\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/markets\/fear-and-greed\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Fear and Greed index<\/a>.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmditozti000h356ng6rd0ccx@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            US stocks have rallied in recent days despite underlying uncertainties related to tariffs on major trade partners including Mexico, the European Union and India. That\u2019s because Wall Street has welcomed progress on the trade front with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/07\/15\/economy\/trump-says-trade-deal-with-indonesia\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Indonesia<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/07\/22\/business\/trump-philippines-trade-deal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the Philippines<\/a> and Japan, including tariffs ranging from 15 to 19% and more clarity about where average tariff rates might land.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmditozti000i356nx6dq44n5@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cWhile still negative from the macro point of view, the world can live with these levels of tariffs,\u201d Mohit Kumar, chief strategist and economist for Europe at Jefferies, said in a note.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmditozti000j356nx3e6zahf@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cWe have been in the relative sanguine camp for tariffs and our view remains,\u201d Kumar said. \u201cWith trade deals likely with all the trading partners, markets can move from the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmditozti000k356nj6765jj4@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Wall Street\u2019s fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, traded at its lowest level since February, signaling relative calm in markets. It\u2019s a major shift from early April, when the VIX had spiked above 50 points as volatility gripped markets after Trump\u2019s tariff announcements.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmditp8n0000p356nww05mg28@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cThe administration pushed a critical trade deal across the finish line with Japan which unlocks new possibilities,\u201d Sarah Bianchi, chief strategist of international political affairs at Evercore ISI, said in a note.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmditp8n0000q356nwudkvwly@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            However, Bianchi said she is cautioning investors that Trump is still pushing forward with an average tariff rate \u201cfar above anything the United States has seen in recent history.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmditp8n0000r356ncpzxf39i@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cLooking ahead to the August 1 deadline, these successes will increase momentum to ink more deals,\u201d Bianchi said. \u201cHowever, it could also embolden Trump even more to punish the countries who do not land a deal by August 1.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cmdiwy0y70000356nq2j75ugh@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            While economic data has been encouraging, a campaign of massive tariffs could cause a resurgence in inflation, creating additional headwinds for businesses and complicating the Federal Reserve\u2019s rate-cutting path.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New York CNN \u00a0\u2014\u00a0 US stocks are floating near all-time highs as Wall Street maintains cautious optimism that&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36835,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[28,112],"class_list":{"0":"post-36834","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36834","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36834"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36834\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36835"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}