For writers, the future has long been a tricky terrain. While the past can prove unsettling and the present uncomfortable, the future seems to free the mind from reality\u2019s restraints and let the imagination soar. Yet it has also proven full of political pitfalls.<\/p>\n
Sometimes writers can tweak a trend of their moment to produce a darkly dystopian future, as with George Orwell\u2019s omniscient tyranny in 1984, Margaret Atwood\u2019s institutionalized misogyny in The Handmaid\u2019s Tale, or Ray Bradbury\u2019s book-burning autocracy in Fahrenheit 451. And ever since HG Wells\u2019s novel War of the Worlds (about technologically advanced Martians invading this planet) was published in 1898, space has been a particularly fertile frontier for the literary imagination. It has given us Isaac Asimov\u2019s seven-part galactic Foundation fable, Frank Herbert\u2019s ecological drama Dune, and Philip K. Dick\u2019s post-nuclear wasteland in Blade Runner, opening us to possible techno-futures beyond our mud-bound presence on this small planet. \u00a0<\/p>\n
From the time that Henry George published his influential futuristic treatise Progress and Poverty in 1879, inspiring many of the Progressive Era\u2019s key reforms, American writers across the political spectrum have used the future to frame an agenda for present-day political action, sometimes progressive, sometimes violently regressive. Published in 1938, Ayn Rand\u2019s second novel, Anthem, was a futuristic saga whose hero, named \u201cEquality 7-2521,\u201d rejected the socialist society that raised him and struggled to rediscover his inherent individuality, articulating libertarian ideals that would inspire generations of American conservatives. And amid the social turmoil of the 1970s, William Luther Pierce\u2019s The Turner Diaries imagined a future armed revolt against the US government that has provoked violence from generations of white nationalists.<\/p>\n
So, with some trepidation, let me venture into the immediate future and imagine what the United States will be like when President Donald J. Trump finally leaves office (if, of course, he does) in January 2029. To keep such projections within the bounds of possibility, let\u2019s clip the wings of our imaginations and hew closely to Trump\u2019s policies and policy statements.<\/p>\n
In just 11 action-packed months since his January inauguration, President Trump has already demolished the fundamental geopolitics that have undergirded US global hegemony for the past 80 years. Even if he simply persists in his policies for another 37 months, his impact on the American version of a world order will undoubtedly prove so profound that it will strain the limits of language.<\/p>\n
To grasp something of the scope of his impact, it\u2019s necessary to briefly outline the world order Washington built over those 80 years. After fighting for four years and sacrificing 400,000 lives during World War II, Washington captured vital bastions at both ends of the vast Eurasian land mass and spent the next 40 years of the Cold War ensuring its control of that strategic continent with circles of steel \u2014 military alliances like NATO, hundreds of overseas military bases, powerful naval fleets, and a massive armada of nuclear-armed aircraft and missiles. With the Sino-Soviet communist bloc largely trapped behind what came to be known as the Iron Curtain, Washington crushed most of their attempts to break out of geopolitical isolation with deft covert operations. As the communists flailed, the US continued to build a global order, while patiently waiting for those socialist economies to implode.<\/p>\n
When the Cold War finally ended in 1991, Washington got busy knitting the world into a unified market through massive capital exports, free-trade agreements, and a grid of global communications, thanks in part to satellites and fiber-optic cables. Beyond its awesome array of raw economic and military power (and the distinctly less than successful wars that it fought), Washington prettied-up its intrusions into sovereign societies worldwide through its advocacy of universal human rights, its commitment to the rule of law (unless it got in the way of American interests), and its support for international institutions like the United Nations that assured inviolable sovereignty for even the smallest of countries. Thanks to a delicate balance of force, beneficence, and self-interest, the United States would enjoy both great national wealth and historically unprecedented global dominance.<\/p>\n
Washington\u2019s world order, like any complex global system, was distinctly flawed and its failings were (to say the least) legion, but its achievements weren\u2019t inconsequential either. After two world wars that left 100 million dead, there has not been a major global conflagration for 80 years (though from Korea and Vietnam to Afghanistan and Iraq, there were all too many disastrous American-inspired local or regional wars). The share of the world\u2019s population living on less than $3 a day<\/a> dropped markedly from 43% in 1990 to just 11% in 2020. Reflecting those improved conditions, average life expectancy<\/a> worldwide rose sharply for the first time in several centuries<\/a>, from 46 years in 1950 to 72 years in 2020. Similarly, the world literacy rate<\/a> climbed from 66% in 1976 to 87% in 2020. Whether from choice or necessity, we humans have enjoyed increasing freedom of movement, with the number of migrants globally reaching a record 304 million<\/a> in 2024, representing nearly 4% of the total global population.<\/p>\n Not only did the US have the largest economy and military budget, but until recently, it was the world\u2019s leading donor<\/a> for public health and poverty eradication, sparing many millions of the world\u2019s poor from the worst kinds of hunger and disease. All of those significant improvements in the human condition had complex causes, but the fundamental fact remains that they were products, direct or indirect, of Washington\u2019s world order.<\/p>\n Then came President Donald Trump. From the first day of his second term in office in January 2025, he set out to tear down the US global order and transform America\u2019s place in the world. With billionaire Elon Musk serving as his in-house wrecking ball, he quickly demolished the US Agency for International Development (USAID), slashing more than 80%<\/a> of American nutritional and medical aid in ways expected, by 2030, to lead to a staggering 14 million extra deaths<\/a> globally (including more than 4.5 million children). The misery now being inflicted on poor people crowded into cesspool camps from the Congo to Bangladesh defies description. In addition, by shutting down Voice of America broadcasts along with those USAID programs, the US has committed what one former NATO official called<\/a> \u201csoft power suicide,\u201d clearing the way, as political scientist Joseph Nye put it, for China \u201cto fill the vacuum that Trump is creating.\u201d<\/p>\n Throughout the Cold War and its aftermath, a key US force multiplier was its global network of alliances \u2014 the Rio Pact for the Americas, five key bilateral pacts along the Pacific-island chain from Japan to Australia, and, above all, the extraordinarily effective NATO alliance for Europe. In 11 short months, Trump has already ruptured all the alliances that assured America\u2019s security for some 75 years. On April 2nd (or what he called \u201cliberation day\u201d), the president also slapped punitive tariffs<\/a> on imports from loyal allies, ranging from 20% for the European Union to 24% for Japan.<\/p>\n Reflecting his longstanding hostility to the NATO alliance, particularly its Article Five mutual-defense clause, Trump\u2019s recently released National Security Strategy<\/a> (NSS) states that Europe faces \u201cthe stark process of civilizational erasure,\u201d battered by \u201cregulatory suffocation,\u201d multi-racial migration, and \u201ccratering birthrates\u201d that raise the question of whether its nations will stay \u201cstrong enough to remain reliable allies.\u201d Through their supposed \u201csubversion of democratic processes,\u201d the president has also claimed that European governments are resisting US attempts \u201cto negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.\u201d To save Europe from itself, in that NSS the Trump administration came out for the growth of \u201cpatriotic European parties\u201d (in other words, far-right ones), while discouraging the very idea of NATO \u201cas a perpetually expanding alliance.\u201d<\/p>\n In case anyone missed the meaning of that message, Trump told a Politico<\/a> interviewer on Dec. 8 that some European leaders are \u201creal stupid\u201d because their tolerance of immigrants from places like the \u201cprisons of the Congo\u201d will ensure that key European nations like Germany \u201cwill not be viable countries any longer.\u201d<\/p>\n More broadly, President Trump has put forward a tricontinental geopolitical vision for the world\u2019s major powers \u2014 with Russia dominant in the old Soviet sphere, China acting as an Asian hegemon, and the US securing the Americas. By claiming Greenland<\/a>, branding Canada \u201cthe 51st state<\/a>,\u201d and threatening to reclaim<\/a> the Panama Canal during his first weeks in office, Trump articulated a strategy grounded, not in global hegemony, but in geopolitical dominance over the Western Hemisphere.<\/p>\n Formalizing that strategy in the recent NSS<\/a>, the White House proclaimed a \u201dTrump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine\u201d aimed at a \u201cpotent restoration of American power\u201d to achieve an unchallenged \u201cAmerican preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.\u201d To that end, the US will reduce its \u201cglobal military presence to address urgent threats in our Hemisphere,\u201d deploy the US Navy to \u201ccontrol sea lanes,\u201d and use \u201ctariffs and reciprocal trade agreements as powerful tools\u201d to make the Western Hemisphere \u201can increasingly attractive market for American commerce.\u201d It will also push out \u201cnon-Hemispheric competitors\u201d (think: China), giving the US distinctly preferential access to the region\u2019s \u201cmany strategic resources.\u201d In essence, according to the NSS, \u201cthe United States must be preeminent in the Western Hemisphere as a condition of our security and prosperity.\u201d<\/p>\n In reality, Trump was miming the convoluted Victorian rhetoric of President Theodore Roosevelt\u2019s famed corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. In a December 1904 message to Congress<\/a>, Roosevelt disdained any \u201cunmanly\u201d inclination to a \u201cpeace of tyrannous terror, the peace of craven weakness, the peace of injustice.\u201d Instead, he embraced the manly duty of the \u201cgreat civilized nations of the present day\u201d to ensure that the countries of the Western Hemisphere remain \u201cstable, orderly, and prosperous.\u201d Cases of \u201cchronic wrongdoing\u2026 may\u2026 force the United States, however reluctantly\u2026 to the exercise of an international police power.\u201d Faced with the \u201cintolerable conditions in Cuba\u201d (then under Spanish rule), TR proclaimed it \u201cour manifest duty\u201d to take \u201cjustifiable and proper\u201d action \u201cin asserting the Monroe Doctrine.\u201d (Think Venezuela at the moment!)<\/p>\n Though he promised the use of only a restrained \u201cpolice power\u201d in the Western Hemisphere, Roosevelt opened the door to decades of US interventionism, with the Marines occupying Nicaragua for 20 years<\/a> (1912-33), Haiti for 19 years (1915-34), and the Dominican Republic for nine years<\/a> (1916-24). Just as Trump\u2019s chatter about making Canada the \u201c51st state\u201d has sparked \u201canger and incredulity<\/a>\u201d in America\u2019s closest ally, so his proclamation of a Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, exemplified by his recent devastating gunboat diplomacy<\/a> in the Caribbean Sea, is likely to inflame the anti-imperialist sentiment that lies just beneath the skin of Latin America, thereby corroding relations with our southern neighbors.<\/p>\n While Trump\u2019s posture toward Latin America is grimly clear, his Asia-Pacific policy seems muddled by ambiguity, if not outright confusion. In early October, oblivious to the rapid erosion of US hegemony in Asia, Trump declared a \u201ctrade war\u201d with China, imposing a 130% tariff<\/a> on its imports and a complete ban on exporting \u201ccritical software\u201d to that country. By month\u2019s end, however, he had to swallow his bravado after Beijing retaliated by barring the export of strategic rare earth metals<\/a> needed for the US military\u2019s weaponry (and so much else). That forced Trump to \u201cfold<\/a>\u201d during his October 30th summit with China\u2019s President Xi Jinping in South Korea \u2014 quickly rescinding his high tariffs and removing the ban on the export of Nvidia\u2019s semiconductor chips<\/a> that China desperately needs for Artificial Intelligence.<\/p>\n In the seven years since Trump\u2019s last trade war with China in 2018, as the Wall Street Journal reported<\/a>, that country has pursued \u201cgreater self-reliance in food and energy\u2026 for an era of sustained hostilities with the US\u201d According to the New York Times, the vivid diplomatic defeat at that South Korean summit was an historic inflection point<\/a>, showing that \u201cChina could now face America as a true peer\u201d and had already become \u201cAmerica\u2019s geopolitical equal.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s delusions of dominance over China pervade his recent National Security Strategy<\/a>. Amid all its self-indulgent palaver, it displays a dangerously willful ignorance about fast-changing geopolitical realities in the Asia-Pacific region. By the time Trump leaves office in 2029, China\u2019s gross domestic product will already be larger than America\u2019s<\/a> and it\u2019s expected to become 36% bigger in the years to follow.<\/p>\n Just as Trump\u2019s \u201cAmerica First<\/a>\u201d foreign policy is damaging the country\u2019s diplomatic relations with Asia, Europe, and Latin America, so his domestic policies are likely to cripple this country\u2019s economic competitiveness. Despite his stated commitment<\/a> to building \u201cthe world\u2019s most robust industrial base,\u201d his energy policy is damaging, if not destroying, the country\u2019s largest industry \u2014 automobile manufacturing. In 2024, the US automobile industry<\/a> produced 3% of the country\u2019s gross domestic product, created more than 8 million jobs, supplied transport for 92% of all American households, and accounted for $1.6 trillion in consumer finance, second only to home mortgages.<\/p>\n By his aggressive attack on the very idea of climate change and on America\u2019s once-promising green-energy infrastructure, President Trump is inflicting serious damage on Detroit\u2019s future capacity to compete against China\u2019s rapidly rising production of electric vehicles (EVs). According to the International Energy Agency<\/a>, EV purchases will reach 20 million in 2025, or one-quarter of world auto sales, and are on track to hit 40% by 2030, with China already accounting for 70% of global EV production. While EVs are still 30% more expensive than gas vehicles in the US, in China they are less expensive and now account for 60% of that country\u2019s car sales (compared to just 11% in the US).<\/p>\n With massive robotic factories cranking out EVs by the millions, a fleet of dedicated ships to carry those low-cost cars to global markets, and new factories opening in Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America, China seems poised to conquer the global car market with models like BYD\u2019s self-driving Seagull EV priced at only $9,000<\/a>. Just as making an iPhone in America now seems almost unimaginable, by the time Trump leaves office, the US automotive industry could find itself incapable of producing a competitive EV, potentially losing access to half the world\u2019s auto market. \u201cI have 10,000 dealers around the world,\u201d said<\/a> Ford\u2019s CEO Jim Farley recently. \u201cOnly 2,800 are in the US So you do the math.\u201d And given Trump\u2019s costly tariffs on steel and aluminum imports (among other things), that core American manufacturing industry is likely to be in truly unsettled shape by 2029.<\/p>\n More broadly, the Trump administration is crippling this country\u2019s overall economic competitiveness by cutting its scientific research and conducting a shotgun wedding between fossil fuels and the nation\u2019s electrical grid. According to the International Renewable Energy Association, in 2024, solar power was 41% less expensive<\/a> (and onshore wind 53% less) than the cheapest form of fossil fuel. When backed by cost-effective storage batteries, those alternative energies now provide the quickest, most affordable means to expand electrical infrastructure in developed and developing nations.<\/p>\n But by slashing EV tax credits, blocking offshore wind farms, and opening yet more federal lands for oil and natural gas drilling, President Trump is using the full powers of his presidency to derail America\u2019s adoption of cost-competitive green energy. And keep in mind that he\u2019s doing so at the very moment when a boom in energy-intensive data centers for Artificial Intelligence (AI) is straining the national grid, while simultaneously raising electricity costs<\/a> for households and businesses. By the time he leaves office in 2029, American industry, still wedded to costly fossil fuels, could be paying double the price of foreign competitors for energy, rendering its products unaffordable, even at home.<\/p>\n Through a mix of ignorance and arrogance, the Trump administration is also hampering this country\u2019s ability to conduct basic scientific research, the seedbed of its economic innovation for more than a century. Although immigrants have won 36%<\/a> of the country\u2019s Nobel Prizes in science over the past 125 years, the White House has now restricted H-1B visas for skilled immigrants and imposed a nearly 20% cut<\/a> in foreign graduate students at US universities. By denying university science labs such critical student workers and slashing the nation\u2019s budget for basic science by up to 57%<\/a>, the Trump White House is liquidating<\/a> the world\u2019s most successful research industry and effectively ceding the rest of the twenty-first century to China.<\/p>\n Since the start of his second term, Donald Trump has used a seemingly random m\u00e9lange of policies to mix a malevolent brew. Think of it as akin to the one that the witches in Shakespeare\u2019s Macbeth<\/a> cast into their cauldron to see the future, as they chanted: \u201cEye of newt and toe of frog, wool of bat and tongue of dog\u2026 For a charm of powerful trouble, like a hell-broth, boil and bubble.\u201d<\/p>\n Indeed, by 2029, Trump\u2019s inept mix of foreign and domestic policies will confront American workers with a \u201chell-broth\u201d of powerful economic troubles not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. By 2030, Trump\u2019s tariffs will have cut<\/a> US consumption by a projected 3.5% and, over the longer term, are likely to reduce average wages by 5% and GDP by 6% \u2014 a major change for an economy that has long enjoyed steady growth. With AI data centers projected to consume as much as 12%<\/a> of the nation\u2019s electricity by 2029, and Trump blocking the green energy that\u2019s the only quick fix to meet rising demand, consumers could face an average increase of 20%<\/a> in their electric bills by 2030 (and a possible 25% rise in states with data centers). While AI might raise living standards over the long-term, its unchecked expansion, as mandated by one of Trump\u2019s executive orders<\/a>, could contribute to the loss of 300 million<\/a> full-time jobs globally and negatively impact two-thirds of all employment in the United States.<\/p>\n Worse yet, his demolition of the Biden administration\u2019s attempt at a green energy revolution will have untold consequences for the US economy (not to say for the planet itself). As China, with its low-cost, high-efficiency EVs, conquers the global auto market by 2030 (and the larger green-energy production market<\/a> as well), it will become the world\u2019s largest economy, with exports surpassing its present record-breaking trillion-dollar mark<\/a> and its currency increasingly dominant in global trade.<\/p>\n With the US global retreat leaving China and what\u2019s likely to become its satellite state, Russia, dominant on the Eurasian land mass, home to 70% of the world\u2019s population, Washington will be forced to fall even more fully back on the Western Hemisphere (where its welcome is already wearing ever thinner). With its presence certain to shrink across the planet, the dollar\u2019s role as the global reserve currency will, as JP Morgan noted<\/a> in a recent study, certainly \u201ccome into question.\u201d With erratic US government policies undermining \u201cthe perceived safety and stability of the greenback\u201d and US tariffs causing \u201cinvestors to lose confidence in American assets,\u201d there are already clear market signs of a global \u201cde-dollarization\u201d that will raise the cost of servicing this country\u2019s national debt and cut into every aspect of the American economy. By 2030, the sum of those changes \u2014 compounded by a 20% increase in household electricity prices<\/a>, soaring health care costs, and a \u201cwhite collar bloodbath\u201d as AI kills off half of all entry-level jobs<\/a> \u2014 will have distinctly begun to reduce the quality of life in this country.<\/p>\n As Shakespeare\u2019s witches saw the future in their cauldron\u2019s bubbling brew and said of Macbeth, a man who would be king (whatever the cost), \u201cSomething wicked this way comes,\u201d they also caught our Trumpian moment so many centuries later.<\/p>\n