{"id":385190,"date":"2026-01-03T09:29:20","date_gmt":"2026-01-03T09:29:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/385190\/"},"modified":"2026-01-03T09:29:20","modified_gmt":"2026-01-03T09:29:20","slug":"will-the-imai-signing-spur-an-astros-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/385190\/","title":{"rendered":"Will The Imai Signing Spur An Astros Trade?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with\u00a0Tatsuya Imai<\/a> this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston \u2014 not because the Astros didn\u2019t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.<\/p>\n

Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource<\/a> projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They\u2019re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai\u2019s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does\u00a0not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it\u2019s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai\u2019s services if he opts out.<\/p>\n

The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season\u2019s cutoff is $244MM. They\u2019re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team\u2019s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.<\/p>\n

Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant<\/a> to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic<\/a> wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.<\/p>\n

Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman<\/a> by signing\u00a0Josh Hader<\/a> \u2014 a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the \u201925 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire\u00a0Carlos Correa<\/a> at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.<\/p>\n

As it stands, it\u2019s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They\u2019d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource\u2019s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they\u2019re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.<\/p>\n

That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let\u2019s look at how their payroll is shaping up.<\/p>\n

Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)<\/p>\n

Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren\u2019t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he\u2019s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.<\/p>\n

Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn\u2019t look much different. It\u2019s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that\u2019s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They\u2019d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.<\/p>\n

McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that\u2019d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There\u2019s probably not much to be done about this one.<\/p>\n

Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He\u2019s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238\/.297\/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker\u2019s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.<\/p>\n

Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn\u2019t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O\u2019Hearn<\/a>, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281\/.366\/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that\u2019d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed<\/a> the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team\u2019s \u201ceveryday first baseman.\u201d<\/p>\n

Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)<\/p>\n

Enyel De Los Santos<\/a>,\u00a0Bryan Abreu<\/a>,\u00a0Steven Okert<\/a>,\u00a0Isaac Paredes<\/a>,\u00a0Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez<\/a>,\u00a0Jeremy Pe\u00f1a<\/a>,\u00a0Jake Meyers<\/a>,\u00a0Hunter Brown<\/a>,\u00a0Yainer Diaz<\/a>,\u00a0Nick Allen<\/a>,\u00a0Bennett Sousa<\/a>,\u00a0Hayden Wesneski<\/a><\/p>\n

There\u2019s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren\u2019t even asking about Pe\u00f1a because they\u2019re aware \u201cthere\u2019s no way\u201d they\u2019d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome<\/a>).<\/p>\n

De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected<\/a> by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They\u2019re useful role players or, in Wesneski\u2019s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.<\/p>\n

Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there\u2019d be significant interest in both, they\u2019re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and S\u00e1nchez.<\/p>\n

Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had \u201cno interest\u201d in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254\/.352\/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.<\/p>\n

The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would\u2019ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292\/.354\/.373 showing at the plate. He\u2019s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton<\/a> to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter\u00a0Mike Burrows<\/a>. Meyers\u2019 $3.5MM projection isn\u2019t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole<\/a> to step up as an everyday center fielder.<\/p>\n

That may leave S\u00e1nchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He\u2019s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. S\u00e1nchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199\/.269\/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop S\u00e1nchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman<\/a>,\u00a0Michael Conforto<\/a>) to compete with Cole and\u00a0Cam Smith<\/a> for right field playing time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with\u00a0Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":385191,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[109685,92891,39190,84731,40898,69753,363,99,87210],"class_list":{"0":"post-385190","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-christian-walker","9":"tag-cristian-javier","10":"tag-isaac-paredes","11":"tag-jake-meyers","12":"tag-jesus-sanchez","13":"tag-lance-mccullers-jr","14":"tag-mlb","15":"tag-sports","16":"tag-yainer-diaz"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/385190","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=385190"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/385190\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/385191"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=385190"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=385190"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=385190"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}