In a perfect world, I think the top five should have one team from each division. That\u2019s not about spreading the hype or artificial parity. It\u2019s just the reality of the current playoff format, where each division is virtually assured of sending one team to the final four. (The exception would be a crossover wild-card \u201cwinning\u201d a division it wasn\u2019t even in, which would be very funny but has sadly never happened. Yet.)<\/p>\n
If our top five is about the long-term view, projecting ahead to an eventual Stanley Cup winner, that final four feels like it should be our starting point. And that means every division would ideally be represented. Remember, we\u2019re not trying to figure out if a team is better than, say, the Minnesota Wild. It\u2019s about whether their Cup chances are higher, and not having to go through the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche to get to the conference final should count for something. Maybe even a lot.<\/p>\n
All that said \u2026 I\u2019m officially giving the Pacific Division a top-five timeout.<\/p>\n
I tried. I\u2019ve spent the majority of the season with a Pacific rep in the top five somewhere \u2014 first with the Edmonton Oilers way back in week one, and then with the Vegas Golden Knights showing up eight times in the next 11 weeks. The division never went back-to-back without a top-five team. Until now, because man, this division is a mess.<\/p>\n
Bonus five: Bad signs for the Pacific Division<\/p>\n
5. This stat from Jesse \u2013 A couple of caveats: It\u2019s from Friday, and it\u2019s using the NHL\u2019s version of goals differential which counts shootouts. But still \u2026 yikes.<\/p>\n
Every single team in the Pacific Division has a negative goal differential. pic.twitter.com\/Tf0qK4mtKL<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Jesse Granger (@JesseGranger_) January 3, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n And here\u2019s a bonus stat of my own: Of the eight teams in the division, only the Knights don\u2019t rank in the bottom five league-wide in either goals for or against heading into yesterday\u2019s action. The Seattle Kraken (32nd), Los Angeles Kings (31st) and Calgary Flames (29th) are all bottom-five in goals for, while the Anaheim Ducks (32nd), Oilers (28th), Vancouver Canucks (29th) and San Jose Sharks (31st) are all bottom-five in goals allowed.<\/p>\n 4. The Kings are fading \u2013 Aside from the Oilers and Golden Knights, they were the one team in the division with a playoff track record. That track record was very bad, mind you, but at least they were invited to the dance. Even after a rocky offseason, they looked like they were headed there again as late as mid-November, when a four-game win streak boosted their record up to 10-5-4. But they\u2019re just 7-9-5 since, including losses in eight of their last 11. And while they say they\u2019re not sellers, the Phillip Danault deal looked a lot like the sort of move a seller would make.<\/p>\n 3. The Ducks are flatlining \u2013 They were one of the best stories of the season\u2019s first few months, the young squad that was using talent and speed to score its way to contention. But they lost five in a row, and nine of 12, and the offense has dropped while the defensive side is getting worse. In short, they look like a young team again. That\u2019s not disaster, because they are a young team, and there are supposed to be bumps in the road. But they\u2019ve spent the last month bumping themselves right out of the postseason picture.<\/p>\n 2. The other teams have had their moments, but\u2026 \u2013 The Kraken have won six of seven. The Flames had won three in a row before losing to Nashville. The Canucks showed some fight in the aftermath of the Quinn Hughes deal before the holiday break. And the Sharks have been churning along about .500, which has to count as a success story given where they were starting from. All fun stories. But are you even thinking about any of these teams being in your top ten, let alone top five? Of course not.<\/p>\n 1. The Oilers and Golden Knights just don\u2019t look elite \u2013 The Knights have been a weird team all year, relying on loser points to boost a losing record. And while the Oilers started slow, again, we all knew they\u2019d find their level eventually. The good news is they largely have; the bad news is their level seems closer to \u201cpretty good\u201d than truly great. Would either of these teams be favored against any of the three Central teams in a playoff series that started today, even with home ice? No way. There\u2019s still time for one or both to find another gear, but it\u2019s January. It\u2019s not too early to start drawing conclusions based on 40-plus games of evidence.<\/p>\n All that being said, the super top-heavy nature of the Central means the Pacific could account for five playoff spots. Wait, we\u2019re getting the crossover scenario in the Central and two Pacific teams playing in the conference final, aren\u2019t we? Oh no, what have I done\u2026<\/p>\n OK, on to the Pacific-free rankings. Let\u2019s see who the other three divisions sent to this week\u2019s dance.<\/p>\n Road to the Cup<\/p>\n The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.<\/p>\n We had some history over the weekend, as Auston Matthews became the all-time goals leader for a franchise that\u2019s over a century old<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Islanders went on to win in overtime on a goal by Matthew Schaefer, in a nice bit of first-overall-pick symmetry.<\/p>\n 5. Carolina Hurricanes (25-14-3, +11 true goals differential*) \u2013 Look, I get why some fans might not love it, but I just thought Saturday night\u2019s Adams Division showdown was a cool look:<\/p>\n Yes, I\u2019m old, thanks for asking.<\/p>\n 4. Minnesota Wild (25-10-8, +23) \u2013 The schedule\u2019s a bit weird, serving up back-to-back games in Los Angeles. The Wild needed multiple comebacks to get a point on Saturday, and get another shot at the Kings tonight. A win would move them ahead of Dallas in points.<\/p>\n 3. Tampa Bay Lightning (25-13-3, +32) \u2013 So apparently, the Panthers are mad about Sam Bennett being left off of Team Canada, while Jon Cooper found space for (checks note) the entire Lightning roster. Cool, it\u2019s about time those two teams had some bad blood.<\/p>\n 2. Dallas Stars (25-9-8, +29) \u2013 The Jason Robertson revenge tour<\/a> should be something to see.<\/p>\n Just gonna go ahead and leave this here. pic.twitter.com\/CahQfXtVw2<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) December 29, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n 1. Colorado Avalanche (31-3-7, +75) \u2013 They took just their third regulation loss of the year against the Panthers. Worse, the Gabriel Landeskog injury looked like an ugly one. At this point, we\u2019re not sure exactly how much time he could miss, but he will miss some<\/a>.<\/p>\n *Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.<\/p>\n Not ranked: Detroit Red Wings \u2013 I have to admit that this Saturday post caught me a little off-guard:<\/p>\n The No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference will host the first ABC Hockey Saturday of the season.<\/p>\n Catch the @DetroitRedWings<\/a> taking on the Penguins at noon ET. #NHLStats<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/1Cur7YYN7S<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 NHL Public Relations (@NHLPR) January 3, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n I mean, I follow the NHL pretty closely, but \u2014 what? The Red Wings are having a solid season and are on track to comfortably make the playoffs, but first place in the Eastern Conference? That can\u2019t be right \u2026 can it?<\/p>\n Well \u2026 sort of. As of that Saturday post, the Wings were indeed sitting in top spot in the East, with 52 points. That put them one up on the Hurricanes and Lightning, and two up on the Habs. But they\u2019d also played two more games than any of those teams, meaning they trailed all three in points percentage. In fact, purely based on points percentage, they were closer to the Philadelphia Flyers than to Tampa or Carolina. And then they lost to the Penguins in regulation.<\/p>\n So OK, the Red Wings aren\u2019t the best team in the conference, even if we just focus on wins and losses. And of course, we all know there\u2019s that pesky other column on the standings page, the one for goals differential, which is screaming at us that this team may not even be better than the Leafs, Penguins or Senators.<\/p>\n So is that nugget about them leading the East a fake stat? Not at all. Points are points, and any team\u2019s job is to bank as many as they can in the games the schedule-maker gives them. The Wings have been doing that. And whether they\u2019re first or fourth or somewhere else, the reality is they\u2019re almost certainly having a better season than you\u2019re inclined to give them credit for.<\/p>\n How are they doing it? Max had some good thoughts a few days ago<\/a>, which are well worth a read. He starts with the top pair of Moritz Seider, who\u2019s getting some legitimate Norris buzz, and Simon Edvinsson, the kid who sure seems to be making the leap<\/a>. Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat are both on pace for 40-goal seasons, although there are some warning signs flashing about their five-on-five play. And Todd McLellan is a big piece of the story in his first full season behind the bench, and might even be working his way into the Jack Adams conversation.<\/p>\n Somewhat surprisingly, goaltending isn\u2019t really a big piece of the story here, unlike most teams that are exceeding expectations. John Gibson has been fine, as has Cam Talbot, and the two veterans are basically splitting time. The position hasn\u2019t been a weakness, and that\u2019s part of the story, but it\u2019s not like you can just hand-wave about goalies getting hot and call it a day. If anything, some above-average goaltending might push this team to the next level.<\/p>\n All that said, they\u2019re not in my top five and haven\u2019t been all year, and I can\u2019t say I\u2019m all that tempted to find a spot for them. Our projections only have them as a coin flip to even make the playoffs<\/a>, and under one percent to win it all; that feels low given how they\u2019ve played over the first half, but it\u2019s fair to say that an awful lot of things would have to go right for the Wings to head into the postseason as Atlantic favorites. (Like maybe a big deadline move<\/a>?)<\/p>\n We\u2019ll get to all that. For now, the reality is that the first half has gone just about as well as you could hope if you\u2019re a Wings fan, and the first playoff action in a decade is there for the taking. If they get home ice, winning a round for the first time since 2013 is absolutely in play. They may not be the best team in the conference, or top-five worthy, but they\u2019re pretty good.<\/p>\n The bottom five<\/p>\n The five teams headed towards dead last and the best lottery odds for the top pick in this year\u2019s draft.<\/p>\n We had two suspensions yesterday, doubling the Department of Player Safety\u2019s total for the year. Calgary\u2019s John Beecher and Winnipeg\u2019s Logan Stanley each got one game for roughing. Meanwhile, this pro wrestling finisher<\/a> got nothing, possibly because the DoPS is taking degree of difficulty into account.<\/p>\n 5. Winnipeg Jets (15-21-4, -11) \u2013 I still can\u2019t quite get my head around it, but here we are. If anything, this ranking is generous, since the Jets are actually dead last in the league in terms of points percentage. I held them out as long as I could, because I had a hard time believing they were this bad. But with nine straight losses, including a brutal collapse in Toronto, there\u2019s really no way sugar-coat this debacle<\/a> any further. This is shaping up to be the single worst season in Jets history (which should include the original version, by the way, despite what Gary Bettman says<\/a>).<\/p>\n The Jets become the 13th different team to crack our bottom five this year, and the first to do it after previously appearing in the top five \u2014 they actually ranked in top spot at the end of October, after a 9-3-0 start. I can\u2019t imagine how Jets fans feel about all that\u2019s happened since. The whole thing has to feel like a sucker punch to the jaw<\/a>.<\/p>\n 4. Calgary Flames (18-19-4, -10) \u2013 Saturday\u2019s loss to the Predators was disappointing, given how hot reasonably lukewarm the Flames had been leading up to it. Still, they\u2019re a respectable 9-5-0 since the start of December, and host Seattle tonight before heading out on a five-game road trip.<\/p>\n 3. St. Louis Blues (17-18-8, -37) \u2013 Jordan Binnington made Team Canada, then immediately pitched his first shutout of the season on Saturday night against Montreal. Hey, just wondering, has this franchise ever had a really remarkable season turnaround that involved Binnington and started on Jan. 3?<\/p>\n 2. Chicago Blackhawks (17-18-7, -15) \u2013 Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar are almost back<\/a>, and the Hawks are warming up just in time to take one last swing at getting back into the race. Meanwhile, Mark wonders how high Bedard would rank on a list of the league\u2019s most valuable players to their team<\/a>.<\/p>\n 1. Vancouver Canucks (16-20-5, -29) \u2013 Drance nails it.<\/a><\/p>\n Not ranked: New York Rangers \u2013 Let\u2019s start with the Winter Classic. It mostly went off without a hitch, with no major problems in the warmer temperatures. They did get the roof open, as promised. The ice didn\u2019t seem great, but nobody was splashing though puddles. And the visuals were good \u2013 the novelty of seeing hockey in a baseball park has long since worn off, but they put enough local twists on the presentation that it didn\u2019t feel like a total rehash. At the very least, the Panthers hosting meant it wasn\u2019t a combination of the same half-dozen teams the NHL loves so much.<\/p>\n The game itself wasn\u2019t much to see, but that\u2019s probably fine for Rangers fans who just wanted to see a win. And hey, Mika Zibanjed even made a little history<\/a>.<\/p>\n Now it\u2019s back to business, starting tonight. The Rangers host the Mammoth in the first game at MSG since before the holiday break. They\u2019ll go into the game sitting seventh in the Metro in total points and dead last in points percentage. They\u2019re only three points out of a playoff spot, mind you, although that\u2019s with seven teams to pass, and they\u2019ve also played more games than all of them.<\/p>\n So is the season already lost? Not quite, although we\u2019re closer to that territory than Rangers fans would probably like to think. Peter and Vincent dug into the first half and handed out some awards<\/a>, and it\u2019s largely a bleak read. The goaltending has been the strength, which you\u2019d expect when you\u2019re paying more for the position than anyone else. The defense has been solid, led by free agent prize Vladislav Gavrikov. But the offense has been weak, with only Artemi Panarin on pace for even 80 points, while J.T. Miller has been disappointing in his first full year and Alexis Lafreni\u00e8re is back to looking like a bust (by No. 1 pick standards). And Mike Sullivan hasn\u2019t had any magic answers.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not hopeless, and we can give them a few more weeks to put together the kind of stretch<\/a> that would make them feel like playoff contenders. If that doesn\u2019t happen, it will be time to look ahead to the deadline, and that could get very interesting in a market that figures to be short on sellers. Panarin is a pending UFA, and while he has a no-movement clause, you\u2019d have to figure he wouldn\u2019t mind a playoff run to boost his asking price.<\/p>\n One last piece of Big Apple drama worth noting: Adam Fox, left off of the Olympic roster in a controversial call<\/a>. You wonder what kind of conversations that might lead to with Sullivan, who doubles as Team USA head coach.<\/p>\n