{"id":390088,"date":"2026-01-06T00:16:18","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T00:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/390088\/"},"modified":"2026-01-06T00:16:18","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T00:16:18","slug":"making-sense-of-the-us-military-operation-in-venezuela","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/390088\/","title":{"rendered":"Making sense of the US military operation in Venezuela"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a special operation to exfiltrate Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro and his wife from Caracas. Below, Brookings experts consider the immediate implications of this operation for the United States and Venezuela.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                      Scott R. Anderson<\/p>\n<p>                      The Maduro operation demonstrates the president\u2019s broad authority to use military force\u2014and may point towards some limits<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/03\/us\/politics\/trump-capture-maduro-venezuela.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">operation to capture Nicolas Maduro<\/a> underscores the extraordinarily broad authority that modern presidents exercise over military force\u2014and, potentially, its limits.<\/p>\n<p>The executive branch <a href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/olc\/opinions\/2011\/04\/31\/authority-military-use-in-libya.pdf#page=6\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">maintains<\/a> that the president has the constitutional authority to use military force without congressional authorization, so long as it supports U.S. interests and is not expected to result in \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/olc\/opinion\/file\/1067551\/dl#page=9\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">prolonged and substantial military engagements<\/a>.\u201d It\u2019s also argued that this authority is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/file\/151131\/dl#page=14\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">not constrained by international law<\/a>. Thus it\u2019s not entirely surprising for the Trump administration to argue that the president can take targeted military action like the Maduro operation, even where hugely consequential for Venezuela and contrary to international law.<\/p>\n<p>These views have never been vindicated by the federal courts, which generally avoid war powers issues, absent a conflict with Congress. But this reticence also leaves the executive branch free to rely on its own views without judicial repudiation.<\/p>\n<p>Yet there may still be limits. When asked why congressional authorization wasn\u2019t needed for the Maduro operation, Secretary Rubio responded, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/ThisWeek\/video\/1-1-secretary-state-marco-rubio-128886956\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">This wasn\u2019t an invasion, we didn\u2019t occupy a country<\/a>\u201d\u2014suggesting some broader campaigns might still be beyond the president\u2019s unilateral authority. An extended military campaign could also trigger <a href=\"https:\/\/uscode.house.gov\/view.xhtml?req=(title:50%20section:1544%20edition:prelim)\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">time limits imposed by the 1973 War Powers Resolution<\/a>. And legislators are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/01\/03\/senate-war-powers-maduro-ouster-00709715\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">introducing measures<\/a> that would impose further statutory constraints if enacted, creating the sort of interbranch conflicts that federal courts might take on.<\/p>\n<p>In short, the Maduro operation may not have encountered serious legal limits. But a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/03\/us\/politics\/trump-venezuela-oil-risks.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">second wave<\/a>\u201d of the sort threatened by President Trump still might.<\/p>\n<p>                      Marcela Escobari and Alex Brockwehl<\/p>\n<p>                      Venezuela after Maduro: a narrow window for democratic transition<\/p>\n<p>Maduro is gone, but what comes next is unclear. His ouster creates a real but narrow opportunity for a durable democratic transition that puts Venezuela on a path to recovery. Three elements are critical: political legitimacy, economic stabilization, and military realignment.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Political legitimacy exists. In 2024 elections, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2024\/08\/04\/maduro-gonzalez-election-actas-analysis\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Venezuelans voted overwhelmingly<\/a> for opposition leader Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez\u2014a result that the Maduro regime rejected by clinging to power. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/04\/world\/americas\/trump-venezuela-leader-rodriguez-machado.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Maintaining Delcy Rodr\u00edguez<\/a>, a close Maduro ally, as president indefinitely would not only undermine the clearly expressed will of the Venezuelan people but likely prevent the reestablishment of rule of law that will be essential for Venezuela\u2019s rebuilding. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/national-security\/2026\/01\/trump-venezuela-maduro-delcy-rodriguez\/685497\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Threatening force<\/a> to keep the Rodr\u00edguez government in line may work in the short term but is not a sustainable strategy for courting the kinds of long-term investment that Venezuela will need to truly rebuild.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A credible stabilization will require much more than investments from a few U.S. companies. Venezuela\u2019s economy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elibrary.imf.org\/downloadpdf\/view\/journals\/087\/2022\/019\/article-A001-en.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">contracted<\/a> roughly 80 percent over the last decade, the largest peacetime collapse recorded in modern history. Basic infrastructure\u2014electricity grids, water systems, transportation networks\u2014is severely deteriorated. A workable stabilization effort therefore requires scale, starting with an IMF-anchored package of over 50 billion over 18\u201324 months, combining balance-of-payments support, fiscal financing and debt restructuring, as well as parallel World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank programs. This must be paired with large-scale immediate humanitarian assistance for the nearly 8 million Venezuelans <a href=\"https:\/\/humanitarianaction.info\/document\/global-humanitarian-overview-2026\/article\/venezuela-4\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">in acute need<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The transition hinges on the Venezuelan military. Venezuela\u2019s armed forces are <a href=\"https:\/\/insightcrime.org\/news\/could-armed-groups-backed-by-maduro-resist-a-us-invasion-of-venezuela\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">fractured, criminalized, and complicit<\/a>\u2014but not monolithic. A transition requires immediate unity of command under civilian authority; conditional off-ramps\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.journalofdemocracy.org\/online-exclusive\/how-venezuela-actually-becomes-a-democracy\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">amnesty<\/a> and reintegration for mid-level officers not implicated in atrocities\u2014paired with targeted prosecutions for grave crimes and the dismantling of irregular armed groups. Justice must be real but sequenced to avoid creating more recruits for the narco-gangs currently operating with impunity within Venezuela.<\/p>\n<p>The United States cannot\u2014and should not\u2014do this alone. While multilateral efforts failed to bring about Maduro\u2019s exit, they can be instrumental in facilitating what comes next.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A secure, democratic, and prosperous Venezuela is in the U.S. interest. Focusing narrowly on oil access or prioritizing creditor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/venezuelas-billions-distressed-debt-who-is-line-collect-2026-01-04\/#:~:text=HOW%20MUCH%20DOES,according%20to%20analysts.\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">repayment<\/a> over recovery would risk creating a small set of rent-seekers while keeping Venezuela\u2019s failed institutions largely intact. The courage and persistence of the Venezuelan people has drawn admiration from across the globe. If the United States makes a stable, democratic Venezuela its goal, it can align its interests with those of many allies across the region and beyond.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                      Vanda Felbab-Brown<\/p>\n<p>                      Contradictory visions for Venezuela<\/p>\n<p>Two days after the tactically spectacular and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.execfunctions.org\/p\/on-the-legality-of-the-venezuela?triedRedirect=true\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">legally-questionable<\/a> capture of Venezuela\u2019s president Nicol\u00e1s Maduro and his wife under <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2026\/01\/03\/nyregion\/venezuela-maduro-indictment.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">narco-terrorism charges<\/a>, the Trump administration has provided little clarity as to the post-Maduro order in Venezuela. In a <a href=\"https:\/\/rollcall.com\/factbase\/trump\/transcript\/donald-trump-press-conference-venezuela-maduro-january-3-2026\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">January 3 press conference<\/a>, Trump explicitly and repeatedly stated that the United States was now running Venezuela, and would do so until Venezuela\u2019s decrepit oil infrastructure has been rebuilt and until the United States could safely hand Venezuela over to local authorities. He also painted a vision of freedom and great new oil-funded prosperity for the Venezuela people. Such a protectorate was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/04\/us\/politics\/trump-republicans-venezuela.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">deeply at odds<\/a> with the Trump\u2019s administration\u2019s earlier <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rejection of \u201cnation building<\/a>,\u201d a rallying cry of Trump\u2019s MAGA base.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, in a radically different vision, Trump\u2019s Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday stated that the United States would have no direct governing role in Venezuela, and instead structure Venezuela\u2019s oil and counternarcotics policies by maintaining the U.S. blockade of sanctioned tankers carrying Venezuela\u2019s oil. This pressure is meant to stop the complicity and indifference of Venezuelan officials toward cocaine trafficking that many regional armed and criminal groups conduct through Venezuela. It is also intended to prevent oil sales to Cuba, with the hope that this further immiseration of a desperately poor country will finally spur a popular uprising against the authoritarian Castro-ite regime.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>What those two contradictory visions have in common is that they leave the vast majority of the Maduro regime in power, including, for now at least, its Vice President Delcy Rodr\u00edguez and its Secretary of Defense Vladimir Padrino L\u00f3pez, in what many speculate was a U.S. negotiated deal with them not to resist the Maduros\u2019 arrest. With Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/rollcall.com\/factbase\/trump\/transcript\/donald-trump-press-conference-venezuela-maduro-january-3-2026\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">shockingly dismissing<\/a> the authority of Mar\u00eda Corina Machado, the heroic democratic leader of Venezuela\u2019s popular opposition to the vicious dictatorship, such a dispensation would crush the freedom and accountability aspirations of the Venezuelan people.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, beyond Cuba, Trump revived his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/national-security\/2026\/01\/trump-venezuela-maduro-delcy-rodriguez\/685497\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ambitions to wrest<\/a> Greenland from Denmark, a close U.S. NATO ally, and bring it into a union with the United States. The Trump administration\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">proclaimed corollary<\/a> to the Monroe Doctrine apparently makes it believe it can do what it wants in the Western Hemisphere.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                      Samantha Gross<\/p>\n<p>                      Oil revenues will NOT fund operations in Venezuela<\/p>\n<p>In his news conference on January 3, 2025, President Trump made clear that the military operation in Venezuela was largely about oil. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2026\/01\/03\/world\/trump-united-states-strikes-venezuela\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">He said<\/a> that the United States will \u201crun\u201d Venezuela for a time and will maintain \u201ca presence in Venezuela as it pertains to oil.\u201d He seems to believe that oil revenues will fund the ongoing presence, stating that, \u201cWe\u2019ll be selling large amounts of oil to other countries,\u201d and that running Venezuela \u201cwon\u2019t cost us anything.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This is nonsense.<\/p>\n<p>The oil industry in Venezuela is a shambles. Venezuela\u2019s national oil company, Petr\u00f3leos de Venezuela Sociedad An\u00f3nima (PDVSA), was once a well-run company, but decline began when former president Hugo Ch\u00e1vez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2013\/01\/11\/venezuela-oil-and-chavez-a-tangled-tale.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">fired thousands of employees<\/a> in 2002-03 after a strike that pressured Ch\u00e1vez to hold early elections. Lack of investment and mismanagement at PDVSA have since resulted in dwindling production over more than 20 years. Production was about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=60762#:~:text=Venezuela&#039;s%20crude%20oil%20production%20has%20fallen%20from,2001%20to%20about%20510%2C000%20b\/d%20in%202018.\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">3.2 million barrels per day<\/a> (mbd) in 2000 and is now about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/01\/04\/nx-s1-5665795\/trump-us-oil-companies-venezuela#:~:text=But%20while%20the%20country%20was,of%20it%20goes%20to%20China.\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a million mbd<\/a>. Restoring production to its peak would require years and billions of dollars in investment.<\/p>\n<p>Trump acknowledged the slump in Venezuela\u2019s oil industry, but he has unrealistic ideas about its prospects for rapid recovery. The current environment does not support the needed level of investment. Venezuela\u2019s vast oil reserves consist primarily of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/international\/analysis\/country\/VEN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">very heavy, sour crude<\/a>, generally similar to Canada\u2019s oil sands. Such oil is expensive and complex to produce and sells at a discount compared to lighter, non-sulfurous oil. Many refineries in the U.S., especially on the Gulf Coast, are <a href=\"https:\/\/stillwaterassociates.com\/what-more-venezuelan-crude-imports-could-mean-for-the-u-s-crude-slate\/?cn-reloaded=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">equipped to process this crude,<\/a> but those refineries are already running at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_r30_m.htm\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">very high utilization rates<\/a>. Oil markets today are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/outlooks\/steo\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">well-supplied and prices are falling<\/a>, narrowing the profit margins for expensive-to-produce crudes. Finally, companies require a stable political environment to make large investments. It\u2019s not clear when Venezuela might achieve political stability, and growing oil revenues certainly won\u2019t be available to ease that transition.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve heard this story before, when oil revenues were intended to fund the reconstruction of Iraq. It <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounder\/iraqs-reconstruction-ailments\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">wasn\u2019t true then<\/a>, and it won\u2019t be true now.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                      Michael E. O&#8217;Hanlon<\/p>\n<p>                      What to make of the surprise attack on Venezuela?<\/p>\n<p>What to make of the surprise attack on Venezuela and the arrest of its sitting president by the United States? The first thing I will say, since my new book \u201cTo Dare Mighty Things: U.S. Defense Strategy Since the Revolution\u201d comes out next week, is that I am NOT surprised to see an American president be extremely assertive with the use of the American armed forces, given our nation\u2019s history (not that I saw this particular operation coming). We have never been isolationist, especially close to home.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Otherwise, my reactions do not fall neatly into just one category. On the plus side, in addition to being very impressed with the quality and excellence of the operation, I would say that President Maduro deserved no protection, had lots of (especially Venezuelan) blood on his hands, and is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/archives\/opa\/pr\/nicol-s-maduro-moros-and-14-current-and-former-venezuelan-officials-charged-narco-terrorism\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">alleged<\/a> to be a drug trafficker. His removal does not trouble me ethically. In addition, the Trump administration\u2019s initial attempt to find a more reasonable leader from within the previous government\u2019s ranks seems pragmatic and offers some (modest) hope of a minimally painful transition.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, on balance I was against this operation and the way it was done. Constitutionally, Congress should have been asked for authorization in advance of any major mission like this\u2014not on the details, of course, but on the basic concept of pursuing regime change in a foreign country through military action. Moreover, international law cannot sanction the decision of one government, even ours, to use its own legal system as a basis and justification for attacking the government of another country. I am not an international law purist, but would only countenance something as dramatic as this decision if large numbers of American lives were directly at risk due to the incumbent Venezuelan government, and they were not in this case. Even more to the point, given what we have learned in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and building on my colleague Vanda Felbab-Brown\u2019s insightful work on the country, I am very worried about how to build a more stable and secure Venezuela, especially without large numbers of American boots on the ground. There are far too many criminal groups and other violent actors to expect any political transition to go easily; I remember the history of Colombia from the latter parts of the 20th century in particular as a warning. I hope and pray for the best but am not hugely optimistic about the path forward.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                      Ted Piccone<\/p>\n<p>                      Trump in Venezuela: another blow to international order<\/p>\n<p>President Trump, as foreshadowed in his newest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">National Security Strategy<\/a>, is talking loudly and swinging a big stick at our neighbors, this time aimed at Venezuela. Trump\u2019s particular brand of lawless bravado, narrow-minded nationalism and crony capitalism have combined in Venezuela to lead our nation down a dark hole of open-ended responsibilities for the world\u2019s largest holder of oil reserves and the <a href=\"https:\/\/worldmigrationreport.iom.int\/what-we-do\/world-migration-report-2024-chapter-3\/latin-america-and-caribbean\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">region\u2019s largest source of migrants<\/a> (though not narcotics, the alleged threat). The harmful consequences for U.S. national security, and international peace and security more broadly, will unspool for years to come.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>After years of course correction away from direct military intervention in the Western Hemisphere, Trump has resuscitated the Monroe Doctrine not to keep the world safe for democracy (note his <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/trump-venezuelan-opposition-leader-respect-govern-after-maduro\/story?id=128868550\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">dismissal<\/a> of Venezuela\u2019s democratic opposition), but to ensure U.S. access to whatever natural and other strategic resources it may need. Now <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/5671516-trump-donroe-doctrine-venezuela\/?email=5e4f79870dcbed3b4b11743790f0af4f4cd22138&amp;emaila=6f364ddc0316b6a3fc23de8d6591811c&amp;emailb=2dbe583ef27f7c9696f9392cbc1e1ee604748271f7d677b2026ed4fe6dd028f5&amp;utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=1.4.25%20SV%20Tipsheet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">coined the \u201cDon-roe Doctrine<\/a>,\u201d Trump\u2019s scheme to rebuild U.S. primacy in the region comes at a favorable political moment in which conservative U.S.-friendly forces are ascendant in Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Leftist leaders in Colombia, Brazil and Mexico are vocally critical but will likely avoid doing much more to preserve their economic and trade interests. Cuba is flat on its back. External powers engaged in the region \u2013 particularly China, Russia and Iran \u2013 will likely pull back from any provocative actions but will at least hold steady with their current ties in the region.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The grievous damage that Trump\u2019s illegal attack on Venezuela has inflicted on international law and multilateral cooperation is perhaps the least tangible but most consequential of outcomes.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                      Elizabeth N. Saunders<\/p>\n<p>                      A precedented intervention in unprecented times<\/p>\n<p>When the Trump administration attacked Venezuela and captured its leader, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, many commentators naturally sought precedents. Trump\u2019s action against Venezuela fits an infamous pattern of American interventions in Latin America. The closest parallel may be the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.army.mil\/article\/14302\/operation_just_cause_the_invasion_of_panama_december_1989\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">invasion of Panama in 1989<\/a>, when the United States captured the Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega and put him on trial on U.S. soil.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But the search for precedents should not obscure the unprecedented institutional and international context that makes this time very different.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Institutionally, in contrast to Trump 1.0., Trump\u2019s second administration is purpose-built to enable his every whim. Additionally, Trump\u2019s current advisers have their own agendas\u2014including Secretary of State Marco Rubio\u2019s desire to cut ties between Venezuela and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/12\/12\/us\/politics\/rubio-cuba-venezuela.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Cuba<\/a>, and Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller\u2019s apparent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/the-lede\/the-real-target-of-trumps-war-on-drug-boats\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">plan<\/a> to use a wartime footing to further expand presidential power domestically. The result was a highly risky \u201clogroll\u201d: everyone got something different out of the operation, but nobody agreed on a post-Maduro plan. We saw this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2019\/03\/22\/iraq-war-wmds-an-intelligence-failure-or-white-house-spin\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">dynamic<\/a> in Iraq, where different advisers supported invading for different reasons, obscuring serious post-invasion risks. But today, Trump faces virtually <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/imperial-president-home-emperor-abroad\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">no check<\/a> on his foreign policy, no experienced advisers to pivot to a plan B, and, by his own design, no allies to help.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Internationally, Trump\u2019s action took place in what is now a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/q-and-a\/the-brazen-illegality-of-trumps-venezuela-operation\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">lawless<\/a> world. Trump did not create this world by himself, but he used the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.execfunctions.org\/p\/on-the-legality-of-the-venezuela?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;triedRedirect=true\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">enormous power of the presidency<\/a> and his position as the leader of a still-dominant United States to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/international-organization\/article\/unconstrained-future-of-world-order-the-assault-on-democratic-constraint-and-implications-for-us-global-leadership\/DBEF84C2AA93E3649228D0A3678EF852\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">throttle<\/a> what remained of international law and norms. \u00a0In seizing a leader by military force, Trump may have <a href=\"https:\/\/goodauthority.org\/news\/what-happens-now-in-venezuela-and-the-world\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">opened<\/a> Pandora\u2019s Box. Greenland, Colombia, Mexico, and Taiwan are watching nervously, while Ukrainians are likely watching in grim recognition.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                      Caitlin Talmadge<\/p>\n<p>                      Military intervention without a clear path to strategic and political success<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. intervention in Venezuela epitomizes the American way of war since 9\/11: stunningly effective tactics by special operations forces, dangerously divorced from any coherent story about how they will produce strategic and political success.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The United States has once again successfully overthrown a foreign leader. But leadership decapitation does not automatically produce regime change, which requires reprogramming a country\u2019s institutions, including its military, in order to change the country\u2019s behavior. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/venezuela\/regime-change-temptation-maduro-trump-venezuela\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Regime change<\/a> is harder, riskier, and more resource-intensive than simply extracting a dictator, and there is little evidence that the Trump administration has prepared to do it successfully. But without it or significant further military escalation, it is also unclear how much long-term policy change the United States can really expect from Venezuela.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Venezuela is twice the size of California with a population of nearly 30 million people, comparable to that of Iraq in 2003. In that war, the United States invaded with a multi-division ground force as part of an overall campaign involving hundreds of thousands of troops. Although the United States quickly toppled the regime in Baghdad, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/show\/iraqis-reflect-on-how-u-s-invasion-and-aftermath-changed-their-lives\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Iraq descended into a brutal civil war<\/a> and insurgency that took years to arrest even with a long-term U.S. ground presence in the country. The war produced refugees, widespread Iraqi civilian deaths, and tens of thousands of U.S. casualties\u2014not to mention the Islamic State, whose remnants the United States continues to battle.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The United States has spent months amassing air, naval, and special operations forces in the Caribbean, but there is no large-scale ground force assembled to actually \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/loud-noises-heard-venezuela-capital-southern-area-without-electricity-2026-01-03\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">run<\/a>\u201d the country. The president\u2019s remarks <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/trump-venezuelan-opposition-leader-respect-govern-after-maduro\/story?id=128868550\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">dismissing<\/a> opposition leader Maria Corina Machado made clear that he has little interest in a genuine democratic transition either.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>All of this raises the question of how much policy change on drugs, immigration, and oil\u2014the ostensible motives for the operation\u2014will result from Maduro\u2019s capture. His departure alone certainly will not bring overnight political liberalization or economic recovery, outcomes that at best would be years away even with adequate planning and resources.<\/p>\n<p>The administration appears to believe that it can use the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/05\/politics\/trump-venezuela-rodriguez-maduro-democracy-analysis\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">threat<\/a> of further strikes to coerce remaining members of Maduro\u2019s regime to cooperate with U.S. objectives. But what happens when they don\u2019t comply, or when they do and it provokes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/americas\/venezuelas-men-with-guns-remain-the-ultimate-power-after-maduros-ouster-ef16681a\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">internal resistance<\/a> or civil war? Is the United States prepared to significantly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/04\/us\/politics\/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">escalate<\/a> its military operations at that point? Will it engage in endless raids and targeted killings (the approach used in the global war on terror), launch a large-scale air campaign (which stands little chance of coercive success if <a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/bombing-venezuela-wont-solve-the-maduro-problem\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">history<\/a> is any guide), or invade (a campaign that Marco Rubio has <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/5672165-rubio-defends-venezuela-arrest\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">implied<\/a> would require congressional authorization, and which the United States is ill-postured to execute )?<\/p>\n<p>These and many other unanswered questions suggest that the weekend\u2019s tactically impressive raid is unlikely to produce strategic and political success.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                      David G. Victor<\/p>\n<p>                      Making Venezuelan oil great again<\/p>\n<p>By many measures, Venezuela has more oil in the ground than any other country. A lot of the early commentary about the United States snatching President Maduro out of Venezuela has focused on oil. \u201cNo blood for oil\u201d proclaimed opponents. And President Trump, himself, focused a lot of attention on oil during his Saturday press conference: \u201cWe\u2019re going to have our very large United States oil companies\u2014the biggest anywhere in the world\u2014go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure.\u201d The United States went to Venezuela, many people are saying, to grab the oil.<\/p>\n<p>I am skeptical that the invasion of Venezuela is centrally about oil and energy. There are less costly and risky ways to produce oil; on top of that, the world oil market is already poised for oversupply. But if we take the oil argument seriously, will U.S. firms actually invest massively to make Venezuelan oil great again?<\/p>\n<p>Over the short term, the answer could be a resounding yes. Venezuela, thanks to years of neglect, incompetence, and sanctions is ripe for Western expertise and capital. Investment of modest sums\u2014perhaps a few billion dollars, though it is too early to know\u2014along with enough political stability might allow some U.S. firms to devote capital, technology and people in ways that expand output from existing fields and facilities while getting paid in oil. First in place probably would be Chevron (already operating in Venezuela for years) followed by several other firms that, like Chevron, have seen their assets expropriated but decided to sit on the sidelines until things change politically (e.g., ConocoPhillips). Watch, too, the service companies that specialize in the legwork of finding oil and improving operations (e.g., Halliburton and Baker Hughes). Prompt repayment in oil might reduce or eliminate the need for government funding. One of the many unknowns today is whether a Venezuelan redevelopment scheme, backed by governments and multilateral financial institutions, might sit ready with incentives that could help jump start such projects.<\/p>\n<p>Over the long term, the opening of new fields and massive expansion will require a lot more capital (perhaps on the order of $100 billion) and thus require much bigger oil output longer time horizons to make financial sense. More capital at stake and longer delays in getting repaid spell more risk. Oil firms remember the last time Venezuela was a darling for Western investors, only to turn ugly when Venezuelan President Hugo Ch\u00e1vez forced Western companies to give assets to the government-run oil company. Venezuela\u2019s extra heavy crude competes with similarly goopy supplies from other countries (e.g., Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia) and not every refinery can deal with the stuff\u2014more goopy supply will require still more investment to process it. While instability inside Venezuela is the biggest risk for the long term, there\u2019s another factor to watch: while the Americans were pushed aside, Russian and Chinese firms came to dominate the country. Will they, now, be pushed aside quietly?<\/p>\n<p>Venezuela remains a member of OPEC, but that aspect of this story is probably irrelevant since Venezuela has long made its own decisions about output. What holds the OPEC cartel together are the other producers, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who are more willing and able to swing production up and down.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                      Valerie Wirtschafter<\/p>\n<p>                      The &#8216;Donroe Doctrine&#8217; and the destabilization of Latin America<\/p>\n<p>The dramatic events that unfolded over the weekend\u2014culminating in the capture of Venezuela\u2019s authoritarian leader Nicolas Maduro\u2014are jaw dropping for many reasons. One that stands out, however, is the baffling <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/we-are-going-run-this-country-trump-bets-regime-change-venezuela-2026-01-03\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">indication<\/a> that U.S. troops could work to stabilize the country and impose regime change. Leaving aside the dissonance of this approach with an \u201cAmerica First\u201d ethos and the disastrous <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-01-04\/china-social-media-hails-trump-s-maduro-move-as-taiwan-template\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">precedent<\/a> it sets for authoritarians seeking to remove other leaders they don\u2019t like around the world, foreign-imposed regime change as policy is among a handful of tools where there is clear consensus about its efficacy: democratization by force is very <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/10.7591\/j.ctv1hw3wst\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">expensive<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/direct.mit.edu\/isec\/article-abstract\/37\/4\/90\/12076\/Forced-to-Be-Free-Why-Foreign-Imposed-Regime\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rarely<\/a> works. That is assuming democratization is the goal at all. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Other <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cy95pr790pro\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">explanations<\/a> emanating from the administration include drug enforcement and oil extraction. Or even, as Secretary Rubio all but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=2ghF6vesHto\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">foretold<\/a>, hoping for\u2014or orchestrating\u2014a subsequent collapse of Cuba. The true answer is different depending on who you ask, and likely a combination of all four.<\/p>\n<p>With 99.9% percent of the original Chavista regime intact, barely even the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/04\/us\/politics\/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">concept<\/a> of a plan for what comes next in Venezuela, and the deck stacked against foreign-imposed regime change anywhere, the events of this past weekend seem at best unlikely to improve the dismal situation Venezuelans face. Instead, they could quite possibly lead to regional destabilization, power vacuums, and further entrenchment of organized crime\u2014absent an unlikely, huge, multi-year U.S. investment. Even with such a resource <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gao.gov\/blog\/u.s.-spending-afghanistan-reconstruction-risk-fraud%2C-waste%2C-and-abuse\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">commitment<\/a>, success is far from guaranteed. Rather than making the Western Hemisphere better off, Trump\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/5671516-trump-donroe-doctrine-venezuela\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u2018Donroe Doctrine<\/a>\u2018\u2014his rebranding of the Monroe Doctrine aimed at building a U.S. sphere of influence in Central and South America\u2014seems to have made a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.war.gov\/News\/News-Stories\/Article\/Article\/2378608\/western-hemisphere-allies-work-together-to-ensure-stability\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">relatively<\/a> secure region meaningfully less stable overnight.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                      Kelebogile Zvobgo<\/p>\n<p>                      Trump\u2019s Venezuela takeover exposes international law\u2019s limits<\/p>\n<p>Several <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/profbensaul\/status\/2007408894805717292?s=46&amp;t=XrLTZTP-4WFg-Moi2WkieQ\" rel=\"nofollow\">U.N. officials<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/amp\/news\/2026\/1\/3\/world-reacts-to-reported-us-bombing-of-venezuela\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">foreign leaders<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/sensanders\/status\/2007509175883247805?s=46&amp;t=XrLTZTP-4WFg-Moi2WkieQ\" rel=\"nofollow\">prominent U.S. Democrats<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/justiceinconflict.org\/2026\/01\/03\/violating-international-law-to-get-rid-of-dictators-is-alluring-but-wrong-and-dangerous\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">legal<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/03\/opinion\/venezuela-attack-trump-us.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">political commentators<\/a> agree that the U.S. strikes on Venezuela on Saturday (and the capture of President Maduro and First Lady Flores) violate international law. The attacks, and President Trump\u2019s announcement that Washington will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/01\/03\/g-s1-104346\/trump-venezuela-maduro-press-conference\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201crun\u201d Venezuela<\/a> (which Secretary of State Rubio <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/rubio-claims-us-running-direction-venezuela-situation\/story?id=128885145#:~:text=Secretary%20of%20State%20Marco%20Rubio%20speaks%20with%20ABC%20News%20while,this%20raid%22%20on%20the%20table.\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">tried walking back<\/a> on Sunday), challenge customary international law and treaty law (embodied in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/about-us\/un-charter\/chapter-1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Article 2(4) of the U.N. Charter<\/a>, among <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cidh.oas.org\/basicos\/english\/basic22.charter%20oas.htm\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">other key texts<\/a>), specifically the prohibition on using force against another state or interfering in a state\u2019s internal affairs. Yet there is little that international institutions, particularly the United Nations, can do to punish this conduct.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Notably, <a href=\"https:\/\/main.un.org\/securitycouncil\/en\/sanctions\/information\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">U.N. sanctions<\/a> are applied through the Security Council, the U.N.\u2019s enforcement arm, where the United States is a veto-wielding permanent member. Moreover, the U.S. government doesn\u2019t accept the compulsory jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the U.N.\u2019s judicial arm. Venezuela could one day try to challenge the United States at the ICJ for violating customary international law and treaty law (including Article 2(4)), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icj-cij.org\/case\/70\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">like Nicaragua did in the 1980s<\/a>. Nicaragua argued\u2014and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icj-cij.org\/sites\/default\/files\/case-related\/70\/070-19860627-JUD-01-00-EN.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the ICJ agreed<\/a>\u2014that U.S. assistance to the Contras in their insurgency against the Sandinista government was unlawful. But the Reagan administration <a href=\"https:\/\/iilj.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/Nicaragua-v.-USA-Statement-by-the-US-Department-of-State-Jan.-18-1985.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">declined to participate in the merits phase of the case<\/a>, didn\u2019t recognize the judgment, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1985\/10\/08\/world\/us-limits-its-role-at-court-in-hague.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ended the U.S. practice of automatically recognizing ICJ jurisdiction<\/a>. Trump, or a future U.S. president, could simply refuse to consent to ICJ jurisdiction.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For its part, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icc-cpi.int\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-05\/Rome-Statute-eng.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">International Criminal Court (ICC)<\/a> lacks jurisdiction over the crime of aggression for nationals of nonmember states like the United States. So U.S. decision makers, intelligence personnel, and those involved in military operations are immunized from prosecution at the ICC, and thus lack an important deterrent against aggressive action such as we saw on Saturday.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>More problematic still, many foreign leaders, notably in neighboring <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/01\/03\/canada-mark-carney-venezuela-reaction-00710081\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Canada<\/a> and within the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/eu-kallas-urges-respect-international-law-after-us-capture-maduro\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">European Union<\/a>, have been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/03\/world\/americas\/maduro-capture-venezuela-reaction-global.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">reluctant to push back<\/a> against Washington and are instead encouraging a peaceful transition negotiated and led by Venezuelans. Unrestrained by international institutions or key allies, Trump has set more countries in his crosshairs, including <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c4g0zg974v1o.amp\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Greenland<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/05\/world\/americas\/trump-venezuela-cuba.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Cuba<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/04\/us\/politics\/trump-cuba-greenland-colombia.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Mexico<\/a>. This may be the end of the rules-based international order as we have known it since World War II.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Brookings Institution is committed to quality, independence, and impact.<br \/>We are supported by a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/about-us\/annual-report\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">diverse array of funders<\/a>. In line with our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/about-us\/research-independence-and-integrity-policies\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">values and policies<\/a>, each Brookings publication represents the sole views of its author(s).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a special operation to exfiltrate Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro and&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":390089,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,19596,966,74381,3200,101226,37824,101234,1922,18064,24987,14099,40353,101236,189394,3,8620,19595,189393,18066,23395,21,19,22,20,25,24,18232],"class_list":["post-390088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-and-technology","tag-article","tag-climate-energy","tag-commentary","tag-crisis-conflict-management","tag-defense-security","tag-energy-security-and-climate-initiative","tag-foreign-policy","tag-geopolitics","tag-global-economy-and-development","tag-governance-studies","tag-international-affairs","tag-latin-america-the-caribbean","tag-latin-america-initiative","tag-news","tag-strategy","tag-strobe-talbott-center-for-security","tag-u-s-defense-policy","tag-u-s-foreign-policy","tag-u-s-government-politics","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa","tag-venezuela"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=390088"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390088\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/390089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=390088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=390088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=390088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}