{"id":390728,"date":"2026-01-06T08:01:12","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T08:01:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/390728\/"},"modified":"2026-01-06T08:01:12","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T08:01:12","slug":"final-sag-awards-predictions-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/390728\/","title":{"rendered":"Final SAG Awards Predictions 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tThe actors are about to have their say.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe Screen Actors Guild Awards may have a new name, but their importance in the Oscar race is as vital as ever. Now called the Actor Awards, nominations will be announced Jan. 7. With more than 122,000 SAG-AFTRA performers eligible to vote \u2014 the largest voting body of any major awards show \u2014 the results often reflect populist tastes and broad mainstream appeal.<\/p>\n

\n\tThis year\u2019s eligibility window covers performances released between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025, setting up what appears to be a competitive field across all categories.<\/p>\n

\n\tSince the ensemble category was introduced in 1995, only four films \u2014 \u201cBraveheart\u201d (1995), \u201cThe Shape of Water\u201d (2017), \u201cGreen Book\u201d (2018) and \u201cNomadland\u201d (2020) \u2014 have gone on to win best picture at the Academy Awards without earning a SAG ensemble nomination. Since the Academy expanded the best picture field in 2009, 61 of the 80 films nominated for SAG ensemble \u2014 a 76% success rate \u2014 have also received best picture nominations, underscoring the category\u2019s value as a reliable Oscar indicator.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe ensemble race is as crowded as ever. <\/p>\n

\n\tWarner Bros.\u2019 \u201cOne Battle After Another<\/a>\u201d is entering as an early frontrunner with a star-studded cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn, and a lineup that fits the guild\u2019s well-established preference for recognizable names. There\u2019s also some history to possibly be made. At a projected seven nominations, Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s action epic is poised to become the most nominated movie in the history of SAG. And there\u2019s still room for one more in case Regina Hall makes the cut in supporting actress alongside Teyana Taylor.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe list of the most nominated films in SAG history is currently a six-way tie with five each: \u201cShakespeare in Love\u201d (1998), \u201cChicago\u201d (2002), \u201cDoubt\u201d (2008), \u201cThe Banshees of Inisherin\u201d (2022), \u201cEverything Everywhere All at Once\u201d (2022) and \u201cWicked\u201d (2024). Of those, \u201cShakespeare,\u201d \u201cChicago\u201d and \u201cEverything Everywhere\u201d went on to win the SAG Award for best cast ensemble before clinching the Academy Award for best picture. \u201cDoubt\u201d took home best actress at SAG for Meryl Streep (but lost the Oscar) while \u201cBanshees\u201d and \u201cWicked\u201d both went home empty-handed.<\/p>\n

\n\tObviously, SAG\u2019s predictive strength extends to the film acting races as well. Since 2009, SAG\u2019s film acting nominees have overlapped with the Academy Awards an average of 16 out of 20 slots, an 80% match rate. The strongest alignment came in 2009, the year of \u201cThe Hurt Locker,\u201d when 19 of 20 SAG nominees went on to earn Oscar nominations. The weakest crossover occurred in 2021, the year of \u201cCODA,\u201d when the overlap dropped to 12 of 20.<\/p>\n

\n\tLast year\u2019s best actor winner, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet (\u201cA Complete Unknown\u201d), continues his momentum and is back with his turn as table tennis prodigy Marty Mauser in Josh Safdie\u2019s \u201cMarty Supreme.\u201d Notably, no film actor has ever won back-to-back SAG Awards<\/a>. That could open the door for someone else to take the top spot. Nonetheless, DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan and Ethan Hawke are all expected to hear their names called. The organization has not been kind to non-English language performances, which is why a snub is projected for \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d star Wagner Moura. Despite emphatic praise from critics, the guild\u2019s longstanding hesitation to nominate non-English language performances \u2014 see Sandra H\u00fcller\u2019s omission for \u201cAnatomy of a Fall\u201d \u2014 remains a barrier.<\/p>\n

\n\tStill, there is some expected recognition for non-English storytelling with Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas all predicted to make their respective lineups for the Norwegian family drama \u201cSentimental Value.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tActors who are mainstays at the ceremony such as Glenn Close (who has 10 individual nominations and could appear for \u201cWake Up Dead Man\u201d) or William H. Macy, who could find his way to a nomination for his work in \u201cTrain Dreams,\u201d which is predicted to land in the cast ensemble category.<\/p>\n

\n\tOn the television side, the drama series race will likely be dominated by streaming platforms, with Apple TV\u2019s \u201cSeverance\u201d and HBO Max\u2019s \u201cThe White Lotus\u201d expected to lead the pack alongside Netflix\u2019s final season of \u201cStranger Things.\u201d In comedy, FX\u2019s \u201cThe Bear\u201d and HBO\u2019s \u201cHacks\u201d remain fixtures, while Apple TV could break through with Seth Rogen\u2019s \u201cThe Studio.\u201d <\/p>\n

\n\tSome of the other individual acting categories showcase a mix of established favorites and veterans \u2014 Jean Smart, Jeremy Allen White, Adam Scott \u2014 and relative newcomers like Glen Powell for \u201cChad Powers.\u201d <\/p>\n

\n\tThe limited series categories are heavily weighted toward Netflix, which could claim as many as eight of the 10 nomination slots across both male and female actor categories, led by their Emmy-winning miniseries \u201cAdolescence.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tNominations will be announced Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026. Final voting to determine the winners will take place from Jan. 14 through Feb. 27 at noon Pacific time. The 32nd annual Actor Awards, presented by SAG-AFTRA, will air live on Netflix on March 1.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe final predictions in all film and TV categories are below.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWarner Bros.<\/p>\n

\n\tFilm Categories<\/p>\n

\n\tCast Ensemble in a Motion Picture<\/p>\n

\u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)<\/p>\n

\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d (A24)<\/p>\n

\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: \u201cSentimental Value\u201d and \u201cWicked: For Good\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tMale Actor in a Leading Role<\/p>\n

Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d (A24)<\/p>\n

Leonardo DiCaprio, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

Joel Edgerton, \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Ethan Hawke, \u201cBlue Moon\u201d (Sony Pictures Classics)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Michael B. Jordan, \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: Wagner Moura (\u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d) and Dwayne Johnson (\u201cThe Smashing Machine\u201d)<\/p>\n

\n\tFemale Actor in a Leading Role<\/p>\n

Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rose Byrne, \u201cIf I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You\u201d (A24)<\/p>\n

Chase Infiniti, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

Renate Reinsve, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d (Neon)<\/p>\n

Emma Stone, \u201cBugonia\u201d (Focus Features)<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: Cynthia Erivo (\u201cWicked: For Good\u201d) and Kate Hudson (\u201cSong Sung Blue\u201d)<\/p>\n

\n\tMale Actor in a Supporting Role<\/p>\n

Jacob Elordi, \u201cFrankenstein\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Benicio Del Toro, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

Paul Mescal, \u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)<\/p>\n

Sean Penn, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d (Neon)\u00a0***<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: William H. Macy (\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d) and Andrew Scott (\u201cBlue Moon\u201d)<\/p>\n

\n\tFemale Actor in a Supporting Role<\/p>\n

Emily Blunt, \u201cThe Smashing Machine\u201d (A24)<\/p>\n

Ariana Grande, \u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures)<\/p>\n

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d (Neon)<\/p>\n

Amy Madigan, \u201cWeapons\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

Teyana Taylor, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: Elle Fanning (\u201cSentimental Value\u201d) and Wunmi Mosaku (\u201cSinners\u201d)<\/p>\n

\n\tStunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture<\/p>\n

\u201cF1\u201d (Apple Original Films\/Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\u201cFrankenstein\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

\u201cMission: Impossible \u2013 The Final Reckoning\u201d (Paramount Pictures)\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\u201cSuperman\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\u201cWicked: For Good\u201d (Universal Pictures)<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d and \u201cWeapons\u201d<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tSTRANGER THINGS: SEASON 5. <\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCourtesy of Netflix<\/p>\n

\n\tTelevision Categories<\/p>\n

\n\tCast Ensemble in a Drama Series<\/p>\n

\u201cAndor\u201d (Disney+)<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Pitt\u201d (HBO Max)<\/p>\n

\u201cSeverance\u201d (Apple TV)<\/p>\n

\u201cStranger Things\u201d (Netflix)\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe White Lotus\u201d (HBO Max)<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: \u201cThe Morning Show\u201d and \u201cThe Diplomat\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tCast Ensemble in a Comedy Series<\/p>\n

\u201cAbbott Elementary\u201d (ABC)<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Bear\u201d (FX)<\/p>\n

\u201cHacks\u201d (HBO Max)<\/p>\n

\u201cOnly Murders in the Building\u201d (Hulu)<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Studio\u201d (Apple TV)\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: \u201cThe Paper\u201d and \u201cWednesday\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tMale Actor in a Drama Series<\/p>\n

Sterling K. Brown, \u201cParadise\u201d (Hulu)<\/p>\n

Walton Goggins, \u201cThe White Lotus\u201d (HBO Max)<\/p>\n

Ethan Hawke, \u201cThe Lowdown\u201d (FX)<\/p>\n

Adam Scott, \u201cSeverance\u201d (Apple TV)<\/p>\n

Noah Wyle, \u201cThe Pitt\u201d (HBO Max)\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: Tramell Tillman (\u201cSeverance\u201d) and Tom Pelphrey (\u201cTask\u201d)<\/p>\n

\n\tMale Actor in a Comedy Series<\/p>\n

Adam Brody, \u201cNobody Wants This\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Glen Powell, \u201cChad Powers\u201d (Hulu)<\/p>\n

Seth Rogen, \u201cThe Studio\u201d (Apple TV)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Alexander Skarsg\u00e5rd, \u201cMurderbot\u201d (Apple TV)<\/p>\n

Jeremy Allen White, \u201cThe Bear\u201d (FX)<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: Martin Short (\u201cOnly Murders in the Building\u201d) and Ebon Moss-Bachrach (\u201cThe Bear\u201d)<\/p>\n

\n\tFemale Actor in a Drama Series<\/p>\n

Kathy Bates, \u201cMatlock\u201d (CBS)<\/p>\n

Britt Lower, \u201cSeverance\u201d (Apple TV)<\/p>\n

Katherine LaNasa, \u201cThe Pitt\u201d (HBO Max)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Keri Russell, \u201cThe Diplomat\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Rhea Seehorn, \u201cPluribus\u201d (Apple TV)<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: Jennifer Aniston (\u201cThe Morning Show\u201d) and Carrie Coon (\u201cThe White Lotus\u201d)<\/p>\n

\n\tFemale Actor in a Comedy Series<\/p>\n

Kristen Bell, \u201cNobody Wants This\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Quinta Brunson, \u201cAbbott Elementary\u201d (ABC)<\/p>\n

Hannah Einbinder, \u201cHacks\u201d (HBO Max)<\/p>\n

Jenna Ortega, \u201cWednesday\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Jean Smart, \u201cHacks\u201d (HBO Max)\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: Ayo Edebiri (\u201cThe Bear\u201d) and Catherine O\u2019Hara (\u201cThe Studio\u201d)<\/p>\n

\n\tMale Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series<\/p>\n

Jason Bateman, \u201cBlack Rabbit\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Owen Cooper, \u201cAdolescence\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Stephen Graham, \u201cAdolescence\u201d (Netflix)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Charlie Hunnam, \u201cMonster: The Ed Gein Story\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Brian Tyree Henry, \u201cDope Thief\u201d (Apple TV)<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: Wagner Moura (\u201cDope Thief\u201d) and Paul Giamatti (\u201cBlack Mirror\u201d)<\/p>\n

\n\tFemale Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series<\/p>\n

Erin Doherty, \u201cAdolescence\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Meghann Fahy, \u201cSirens\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Sarah Snook, \u201cAll Her Fault\u201d (Peacock)<\/p>\n

Christine Tremarco, \u201cAdolescence\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

Michelle Williams, \u201cDying for Sex\u201d (FX)\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: Claire Danes (\u201cThe Beast in Me\u201d) and Amanda Seyfried (\u201cLong Bright River\u201d)<\/p>\n

\n\tStunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series<\/p>\n

\u201cAndor\u201d (Disney+)<\/p>\n

\u201cFallout\u201d (Prime Video)<\/p>\n

\u201cGen V\u201d (Prime Video)<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Last of Us\u201d (HBO Max)\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cStranger Things\u201d (Netflix)<\/p>\n

\n\tAlternates: \u201cCobra Kai\u201d and \u201cSeverance\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The actors are about to have their say. The Screen Actors Guild Awards may have a new name,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":390729,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[189658,88,89051,152913,57100],"class_list":{"0":"post-390728","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-entertainment","8":"tag-awards-circuit-column","9":"tag-entertainment","10":"tag-one-battle-after-another","11":"tag-sag-awards","12":"tag-timothee-chalamet"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=390728"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390728\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/390729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=390728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=390728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=390728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}