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<\/a><\/p>\nGiven to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position.<\/p>\n
As almost anyone would\u2019ve expected before the season, this is a two-man race between the two best players in the world. Connor McDavid started slow by his standards, but has picked up some serious heat over the last month, enough to nearly catch Nathan MacKinnon in the scoring race.<\/p>\n
As I say often, though, the Hart trophy is not the Art Ross trophy. If this is about total value and not just points, I\u2019m still leaning MacKinnon. The main reason for that is he\u2019s been other-worldly at five-on-five, where the Avalanche have outscored teams an absurd 58-16 with MacKinnon on the ice. That\u2019s a plus-42 differential that already ranks sixth since 2007-08. It helps to play with a superteam, but it\u2019s still MacKinnon driving that bus and it\u2019s the main reason he still holds a 3.7-goal edge over McDavid. That, and personally scoring 10 more goals.<\/p>\n
To McDavid\u2019s credit, some of that can be attributed to good fortune. McDavid\u2019s 56.6 percent expected goals rate isn\u2019t far off MacKinnon\u2019s 59.3 percent and is arguably just as impressive given the difference in team strength and McDavid\u2019s relative impact (plus-0.71 xG per 60 vs. MacKinnon\u2019s plus-0.33). The model ranks their xG impacts equally, but the rest points to MacKinnon\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n
That duo feels like a slam-dunk top two whereas the race of the rest of the ballot feels a lot tighter. Cale Makar also deserves some recognition for Colorado\u2019s success, but there may be better MVP blue line candidates in Moritz Seider or Zach Werenski. Nikita Kucherov and Leon Draisaitl are around as usual while Matt Boldy narrowly edges out teammate Kirill Kaprizov (plus-10 Net Rating) as the Wild\u2019s current front-runner.<\/p>\n
The most intriguing name on the list, though, has to be Macklin Celebrini. The fresh-faced Olympian<\/a> trails only MacKinnon and McDavid in points, an absurd feat given the quality of the Sharks. Celebrini\u2019s underlying numbers have greatly improved since the last Awards Watch (57 percent xG) as he\u2019s cemented his place among the game\u2019s very best. For the \u201cmost valuable to their team\u201d wonks, the gap in Net Rating between Celebrini and the next closest Shark is nine goals, the largest amount in the league by a considerable margin. MacKinnon being the next closest at plus-5.6 when that very teammate is third probably makes that point moot, though.<\/p>\n Norris Trophy<\/p>\n Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position. Cale Makar remains the best defenseman in the world and is one of the premier catalysts for the league\u2019s best team. He has been a machine for the Avalanche, dominating tough minutes as usual while pacing for his third straight 90-point season. Makar leads all defensemen in Net Rating and would be an extremely popular and inoffensive choice to win his third Norris trophy.<\/p>\n But while many probably believe this race is already over, I think it\u2019s a lot closer than meets the eye. For all the folks who have ever bemoaned that the Norris trophy is often just the \u201cArt Ross for defensemen,\u201d Moritz Seider has made this year\u2019s Norris race genuinely interesting.<\/p>\n Seider is 16 points behind Makar while playing two fewer games and the same amount of minutes every night. In that realm, it\u2019s not close. But the degree of difficulty Seider faces, combined with his enormous defensive presenc,e turns that gap into a conversation. Seider, despite playing on a significantly worse team, currently has a 57.8 percent xG rate that\u2019s 1.5 percentage points higher than Makar\u2019s. The main thing driving that is Seider allowing 0.4 fewer xGA\/60 than Makar. Defensively, he\u2019s been an absolute force, enough to make up ground on Makar\u2019s talents elsewhere.<\/p>\n Seider\u2019s impact is best exemplified by how the Red Wings look without him. The team\u2019s goal differential per 60 increases by 1.27 with Seider on the ice, good for sixth in the league among defensemen. Their xG differential increases by 0.76 per 60, good for third.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not exactly fair to compare Seider to the rest of the Red Wings defensemen vs. Makar compared to the rest of the Avalanche defensemen. It\u2019s like comparing a Big Mac to a steak, and it\u2019s why I\u2019m not big on relTM metrics in isolation. But as a piece of the overall puzzle, it points to Seider\u2019s outsized impact on a Detroit team that\u2019s an utter disaster without him. The fact Seider has a better xG rate than Makar despite the massive supporting cast discrepancy is obviously notable.<\/p>\n The gap between Makar and Seider offensively is probably bigger than the gap between them defensively in Makar\u2019s favor. But it\u2019s close enough to make this an extremely interesting race, especially depending on what a voter values. In terms of how one-of-a-kind Seider\u2019s season has been so far, though, it\u2019s worth noting he\u2019s on pace for a plus-13 Offensive Rating while also earning a plus-12 Defensive Rating. Since 2007-08 there have only been 11 seasons where a defenseman posted a Defensive Rating north of plus-10; none of them had an Offensive Rating higher than plus-10. Seider is having a special, all-around season and if voters want the complete package, he might be the best choice. No one is doing it all like him.<\/p>\n Down the list, Zach Werenski has been awesome again and his 44 points are arguably more impressive than Makar\u2019s 47, considering it\u2019s in four fewer games, features three fewer goals and happened in Columbus. Jakob Chychrun has been a goal-scoring machine, J.J. Moser has been a defensive rock for Tampa Bay, Jake Sanderson is Seider-lite and Lane Hutson has been putting up numbers of late. It\u2019s a great crop that also includes usual stalwarts like Adam Fox, Miro Heiskanen and Josh Morrissey.<\/p>\n Notably absent again is Quinn Hughes, which is entirely a product of his defensive game while with the Canucks. Considering his play with the Wild, where he\u2019s dominating tough minutes, I\u2019d imagine he makes some serious noise on this list for the next edition. Hughes currently ranks third in Offensive Rating among defensemen and in 12 games with the Wild has a plus-4.7 Net Rating. That\u2019s a plus-32 pace that well surpasses Makar\u2019s current level. If he can keep that up, this race will get really spicy.<\/p>\n Selke Trophy<\/p>\n Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game. If you\u2019re surprised by Charlie Coyle at the top of this list, that makes two of us. And in my case, I\u2019ve got some serious crow to eat after completely panning the high price Columbus paid to acquire him<\/a>. Boy, was I wrong: He\u2019s easily been worth it.<\/p>\n \u201cWorth it\u201d and \u201cSelke front-runner\u201d are two different conversations, though, and it\u2019s a serious shock that Coyle is pushing towards the latter \u2014 at least according to Defensive Rating. While I would still lean towards Nick Suzuki or Sam Reinhart as the Selke leaders, Coyle is currently checking every box necessary to warrant genuine consideration. He plays extremely tough minutes in line with Suzuki, he soaks up more defensive-zone starts than any other candidate, he kills a lot of penalties, and he makes a major impact at five-on-five.<\/p>\n In terms of usage, no one on this list has it tougher than Coyle. And yet the Blue Jackets allow just 2.36 xGA\/60 with Coyle on the ice, 0.42 less than when he\u2019s off. The latter is a top-10 mark among forwards and the best among players taking on matchup minutes. With Columbus also allowing 0.67 fewer goals against per 60, Coyle has the results on the scoresheet to match. We\u2019ll see if this lasts \u2014 Coyle\u2019s previous career high for Defensive Rating is plus-3.5 in 2022-23 \u2014 but for now it\u2019s a great story.<\/p>\n At the halfway point, the Selke race is remarkably tight \u2014 enough that there\u2019s a case to be made for a long list of guys. When it comes to defensive impact, a one-goal difference is enough to pick and choose who the actual best is; it\u2019s not cut-and-dry. And there are nine guys within that range at the moment.<\/p>\n Reinhart is the best incumbent after finishing second to linemate Aleksander Barkov last season. That he\u2019s here again without his more famous linemate might be enough to give him the edge. Over the previous three years, Reinhart\u2019s average Defensive Rating has been plus-7.2. For anyone who thought he was just a product of Barkov, a plus-6.4 pace this year without him is telling.<\/p>\n Suzuki has been the anointed one this season, but his edge since the last Awards Watch has slipped a bit. His xGA\/60 has climbed from 2.27 to 2.85. Suzuki is still controlling play while taking on tough minutes, but it\u2019s been with a more offensive slant.<\/p>\n Down the list, Brock Nelson \u2014 or anyone else from the best team\u2019s shutdown line \u2014 has a strong case as he\u2019s been a major catalyst towards letting Colorado\u2019s top players fly. Mitch Marner is once again in the Selke conversation, though notably faces secondary matchups, something that should be considered against the field. And Mika Zibanejad, despite his team\u2019s poor efforts, has been a lot better than given credit for.<\/p>\n Calder Trophy<\/p>\n Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. There\u2019s no question Matthew Schaefer is still the odds-on favorite to win rookie of the year. For the season, he\u2019s proven he\u2019s already an elite defenseman, an incredible feat given his age. He\u2019s a game-changer all over the ice and has been a noticeable force that\u2019s pushed the New York Islanders into the thick of the playoff hunt.<\/p>\n With that being said, it is fair to say that he\u2019s hit a bit of a wall over the last month. He\u2019s been crushed under the weight of some of the league\u2019s hardest minutes, earning a 42 percent xG rate since December 1. To his immense credit, the Islanders are still outscoring opponents heavily when he\u2019s on the ice and he\u2019s continued his strong production with nine points in 16 games. But the team has been leakier lately with Schaefer on the ice. For the season, he has still been undeniably strong, but if you\u2019re wondering why his Net Rating hasn\u2019t budged over the last month, that\u2019s the reason.<\/p>\n Even with that in mind, the gap between Schaefer and the field remains wide.<\/p>\n Ivan Demidov has been an electric scorer for the Canadiens, producing at a 70-point pace while only playing 15 minutes per night. His impact on the top power play has been especially notable where the top unit scores 12.0 goals per 60 with Demidov and 10.5 without. While his scoring has been excellent for a rookie, it\u2019s not a large enough gap over Schaefer given the positional difference and the defensive role Schaefer plays.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a similar story for Jesper Wallstedt and Alexander Nikishin. Both have been strong enough to warrant a spot on ballots, but neither player has done enough in a smaller role to lead the pack. Wallstedt has played just 17 games and is 19th among goalies in GSAx, a relative difference that matters when comparing skaters and goalies. As for Nikishin, his relative impact is a lot worse than Schaefer\u2019s despite playing mostly sheltered minutes for the Hurricanes.<\/p>\n Down the list, Beckett Sennecke makes the cut this time after being snubbed last time and while he\u2019s third in Offensive Rating behind Demidov, his defensive game remains an issue. Ryan Leonard looks a bit stronger in that regard which gives him the edge, while Noah Ostlund has been a revelation defensively, albeit in a limited role.<\/p>\n Vezina Trophy<\/p>\n Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. With Connor Hellebuyck sidelined for a month and not playing up to his usual standard, the Vezina race looks wide open. It\u2019s a battle between the other five best goalies in the world.<\/p>\n Logan Thompson is the current front-runner of that race and has picked up where he left off from last season. His .914 save percentage is the league\u2019s second-highest mark among starters and made even more impressive by a Washington defense that\u2019s allowing a bit more shot danger than league average.<\/p>\n Thompson\u2019s biggest threat right now is Ilya Sorokin, who had a sensational December posting a .928 save percentage over seven games. Sorokin was second in GSAx among starters since the last Awards Watch, putting him right in the thick of the Vezina hunt. If he\u2019s the efficiency choice (0.65 goals saved per game), Igor Shesterkin is the workhorse choice. He lands in third spot by pure volume, an underrated aspect of goalie value.<\/p>\n Rounding out the top five are Jeremy Swayman and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Swayman has slowed down considerably after leading the Vezina race in December with an .885 save percentage over the last month, while Vasilevskiy has been just average. Spencer Knight also falls in this category after a hot start.<\/p>\n Art Ross Trophy<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Criteria: Defensemen ranked by Net Rating.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team\u2019s short-handed minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Criteria: Goaltenders who have played half of their team\u2019s games or more, ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey<\/a> and MoneyPuck<\/a>.<\/p>\n