This is the Playoff Report, a monthly check-in of each team\u2019s chances of making the playoffs, the trends within the race, and why the biggest movers are on the rise or declining.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how the race currently shapes up. As you can see, it\u2019s a beautiful mess.<\/p>\n
The East<\/p>\n Tampa Bay and Carolina? Extremely safe. Pencil them in. Boston? Probably out, especially without Hampus Lindholm for an extended stretch. Pencil them out. Everyone else? Good luck figuring that out.<\/p>\n At the moment, only one team that made the playoffs last year, Montreal, occupies a playoff spot. The Capitals are close and have the second-best goal differential in the conference, while the Panthers aren\u2019t far off from the top eight with Matthew Tkachuk\u2019s return seemingly imminent. None of the three are locks, but they\u2019re the safest for those reasons; they\u2019re varying levels of actually good with some points banked.<\/p>\n The Capitals and Panthers also have the benefit of a weaker schedule going forward compared to many of their competitors. Schedule strength is a potentially huge factor in such a tight race and it helps explain why Detroit (hardest), Pittsburgh (fourth hardest), Philadelphia (sixth) and Buffalo (seventh) are further down than expected given each team\u2019s current record. It also helps explain why Ottawa (third) and Toronto (fifth) are in tougher spots than their track records might indicate.<\/p>\n There\u2019s also divisional strength at play, where there is a growing chance that the sixth-best team in the Atlantic misses the playoffs with a better record than third in the Metro. On top of upcoming schedule strength, it also stems from some skepticism around the Penguins, Islanders and Flyers \u2014 three teams expected to finish last in the East this year. The model probably underrates the Islanders, but it should be noted they rank 27th in xG this season.<\/p>\n Basically, it\u2019s a cluster of chaos that\u2019s difficult to untangle. At the moment, there are 10 teams expected to finish between 89 and 93 points. Against all odds, almost every team still has a chance at the halfway point and it\u2019s why only five teams have chances north of 50 percent: the 16 teams add up to 800 percent, 100 percent for each slot.<\/p>\n Essentially, the answer to \u201cIs my favorite team making the playoffs?\u201d is \u201cMaybe, but \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n The West<\/p>\n There\u2019s a different problem out West: the complete collapse of the wild-card race. Colorado, Dallas and Minnesota are locks \u2014 especially when the playoff cutline has drastically shifted down to just 84 points. Ditto for Vegas and Edmonton, two teams with strong track records who are far enough above that line to feel confident. You can probably pencil the Kings in, too, for that reason; they also have the league\u2019s easiest schedule in the second half.<\/p>\n As for the rest, it\u2019s looking like it\u2019s going to be a \u201cwho\u2019s the least bad\u201d contest with two likely winners. There are a lot of contenders for the job.<\/p>\n Some might be surprised by Utah\u2019s lofty chances. We\u2019ll get to the Mammoth in a second, but believe it or not, they\u2019re one of four teams in the West with a positive goal differential. They look likely.<\/p>\n For the final spot, the Ducks, Jets, Sharks and Predators all have a claim. The Ducks are buoyed by a strong start, the Jets are greatly underachieving but have the track record, the Sharks are being willed into the mix by Macklin Celebrini\u2019s star power, and the Predators have reinvented their game back to competitiveness. The Sharks currently have the best record of the four and the easiest upcoming schedule, but they\u2019re also the leakiest five-on-five team of the bunch.<\/p>\n That\u2019s one reason the Kraken are noticeably absent from that group despite currently sitting at a 94-point pace. Seattle is, without question, the league\u2019s worst five-on-five team with a 42.7 percent xG rate, two percentage points back of the 31st Blackhawks. That\u2019s the 10th-worst mark in the analytics era and would be the lowest ever for a playoff team. Seattle making it is not impossible, but the Kraken also have the league\u2019s second-hardest schedule coming up, which will add another challenge on top of their weak five-on-five play.<\/p>\n On the riseMinnesota Wild<\/p>\n Did anything interesting happen to the Wild over the last month? Oh yeah, they got the second-best defenseman in the world. Yeah, that\u2019ll help.<\/p>\n While the Wild had to give up some value off their roster to do so (Marco Rossi in particular), the impact of adding Quinn Hughes was still huge, and the team has been rolling ever since with an 8-2-3 record, a plus-16 goal differential, and some elite numbers at five-on-five. Hughes has been sensational, picking up where he left off over the last two years, where he\u2019s challenged Cale Makar for the best in the world crown. Away from the doldrums of the Canucks franchise that limited him through the first two months, Hughes could get there with the Wild.<\/p>\n Hughes\u2019 presence has made the Wild a playoff lock, with their odds jumping from 78 to 99 percent. How far they go when they get there is the question, though, given who they share a division with. The Wild are on the rise, but still have a lot of work to do to prove they can hang with the Avalanche.<\/p>\n Detroit Red Wings<\/p>\n When respect is earned, respect is given, and the Red Wings are finally making meaningful headway by the model. Detroit is now up to a 93-point projection and a 49 percent chance at making the playoffs. It may not be above 50 percent yet, but that\u2019s due to the competition in the East where the Red Wings currently project to finish sixth. Things are looking up.<\/p>\n So what changed? The big thing is that the Red Wings are finally making due on their territorial advantage thanks to a return to form from John Gibson. In each of the first three months, the Red Wings were an average expected goals team; over the last month, they were finally an average actual goals team. Gibson\u2019s .922 save percentage and his sixth-ranked GSAx were a big part of that, leading to a 12-4-2 record. I\u2019m not completely sure he can sustain that, given his recent resume, but it\u2019s a great start toward improving Detroit\u2019s expected standing between the pipes. The Red Wings entered the season with low expectations on that front, but have climbed over the last month.<\/p>\n An average five-on-five team with elite special teams can be a real recipe for success for Detroit, but the true test starts in the second half when the schedule ramps up. If the Red Wings can keep up this current level against the league\u2019s best, they\u2019ll keep earning respect and should have no trouble earning a playoff berth.<\/p>\n Until they prove it, though, some caution is warranted.<\/p>\n Edmonton Oilers<\/p>\n The Oilers are back, baby! Zach Hyman has returned, Connor McDavid is on fire, the power play is unstoppable and the team is controlling play again at five-on-five. All of that led to a 10-6-1 record where the Oilers improved their playoff odds by 19.6 percentage points. After seeing their Net Rating free-fall in November, the Oilers jumped right back up by 19 goals over the last month, the highest mark in the league.<\/p>\n Almost all of that is on offense, where McDavid got his groove back, scoring 17 goals and 39 points over the last 17 games while dominating at five-on-five. He\u2019s been a monster during this stretch, but it also helps that Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins look closer to their 2023-24 selves rather than last year\u2019s lackluster versions.<\/p>\n There\u2019s still a lot of room to grow to get back to last year\u2019s strength, and after yet another slow start, the Oilers look like they\u2019re right on track to get there.<\/p>\n San Jose Sharks<\/p>\n Are the San Jose Sharks actually good? Probably not, but they\u2019re getting better. Can the San Jose Sharks actually make the playoffs? Maybe, and their chances continue to grow with each improbable win.<\/p>\n Since Dec. 2, the Sharks\u2019 point projection has jumped from 75 to 82, giving them a very real playoff shot at 26 percent. And that\u2019s not just from going 8-7-0 while the wild-card race collapsed either \u2014 the team\u2019s Net Rating has jumped 18.7 goals, second to only the Oilers. That\u2019s the result of across-the-board improvement in terms of scoring chances from the first two months.<\/p>\n October\/November December The headline for the Sharks over the last month might be that Celebrini is keeping up his torrid pace with 24 points in 15 games and willing this team to relevance, but it goes beyond his scoring. Celebrini\u2019s own xG rate is up to 56.3 percent and there are a slew of others on the right side of the puck. Dmitry Orlov and John Klingberg have controlled the game well on the back end, Alexander Wennberg is playing great in tough minutes, and the emergence of Collin Graf has been notable.<\/p>\n The biggest change, though, might be the promotion of Igor Chernyshov to the big leagues. Chernyshov has eight points in his first nine games and an outstanding enough xG rate to believe he\u2019s arrived as a genuine top-six forward right out of the gate. Add that to the mix, and San Jose\u2019s top six does look legitimately dangerous.<\/p>\n It may not ultimately be enough for a playoff berth, but the Sharks sure are making it interesting.<\/p>\n Honorable mentions<\/p>\n Colorado Avalanche<\/p>\n The certainty that the Avalanche are miles better than basically every other team continues to climb as their Stanley Cup chances shot up from 20 percent to over 30. Colorado has not taken its foot off the gas for a second and was once again the league\u2019s best team over the last month, going 13-3-1 with the best five-on-five numbers in the league. Is anybody going to stop these guys?<\/p>\n Utah Mammoth<\/p>\n The Mammoth went 8-8-0, yet somehow improved their playoff chances 20.6 percentage points, third-most in the league. Huh? Well, in the West, it helps that the biggest threats from a month ago went 2-9-5 (Winnipeg), 5-10-2 (Anaheim) and 6-8-2 (Los Angeles). That opened the door greatly in the West, as did the Hughes trade that pushed the Canucks out of the picture. On top of that, Utah also managed a 57.1 percent xG during that time frame, the second-best mark in the league.<\/p>\n Falling offNew Jersey Devils<\/p>\n The Devils were already at the top of this list after a dismal month. A 9-0 loss to the Islanders cemented it. No team\u2019s playoff stock has fallen further than the Devils, who have dropped from 77 percent to 35 percent. After starting 13-4-1, the Devils are now 9-15-1 in their last 25 games.<\/p>\n Some of that is the absence of Jack Hughes (and his poor play since returning). Some of it is poor roster construction coming to light in his absence. Some of it is goaltending. All of it is a problem that\u2019s pushed the Devils\u2019 projected rating to a shade below average at minus-0.8. A team that many viewed as a potential contender going into the season suddenly just doesn\u2019t look that good at all.<\/p>\n Since Dec. 2, the numbers for New Jersey are appalling. The Devils have a 46.7 percent xG rate (26th) and 35.6 percent goal rate (32nd). They also have the league\u2019s worst power play and worst penalty kill on top of that. In 17 games, they\u2019ve been outscored 54-30, meaning they\u2019ve averaged less than two goals per game.<\/p>\n If there\u2019s any solace for the Devils, it\u2019s that the worst part of the season is probably over. Hughes should get healthier with each passing game, the return of Johnathan Kovacevic is on the horizon and most importantly, the schedule is about to turn. No team has had a more difficult schedule to date than the Devils; they have the third-easiest schedule going forward.<\/p>\n Whether that\u2019s enough to turn things around after the gigantic hole the team built over the last month remains to be seen. The Devils simply might not be good enough.<\/p>\n Winnipeg Jets<\/p>\n Connor Hellebuyck came back to the lineup on Dec. 13, pushing Winnipeg\u2019s playoff odds back up to 62 percent thanks to his return and a win over the Capitals. That\u2019s Hellebuyck\u2019s only win since, and the Jets\u2019 chances have sunk like a stone as a result, dropping all the way to 30 percent. The 15-21-5 Jets currently sit last in the West and are projected to finish with 82.6 points. They started the year with an expectation of 99.7 points.<\/p>\n While the Western playoff race doesn\u2019t look all that competitive with a projected cutoff of 84 points, the Jets have put themselves in a massive hole over the last month with a league-worst 2-9-5 record.<\/p>\n The question now is whether it\u2019s over for last year\u2019s Presidents\u2019 Trophy winners. I\u2019m not there yet, but it really does all depend on Hellebuyck. The Jets were never much of a puck possession team and would only go as far as their star goalie could take them. Since his return, Hellebuyck has an .886 save percentage and the Jets are living within the consequences of that.<\/p>\n Time is ticking for Hellebuyck to carry them, and the team\u2019s drop in projected Offensive Rating over the last month is telling towards the ever-growing importance of Hellebuyck\u2019s excellence. Winnipeg\u2019s drop to an Offensive Rating of minus-12.0 pushes the Jets to 22nd in that regard. That\u2019s less than ideal for a team with Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Josh Morrissey on it that finished third in goals for last season.<\/p>\n Anaheim Ducks<\/p>\n I really wanted to believe this time was different for the Anaheim Ducks. A new coach plus an emerging young core backed by a budding elite goalie felt like a recipe for success, one we saw cooked to perfection over the first month. There were some red flags, sure, but this didn\u2019t feel like past Ducks hot streaks that went nowhere \u2014 this one felt like the one that would get Anaheim back to the playoffs.<\/p>\n The Ducks are still in the driver\u2019s seat, ranking eighth in the West in projected points, but they\u2019ve fallen considerably from their once-comfortable heights. Since peaking at 81 percent on Dec. 10, the Ducks have gone 2-9-2 and have seen their playoff odds drop to 34 percent during that stretch.<\/p>\n During that time, the team\u2019s core has really let them down. Leo Carlsson has just one goal and four points in 12 games, while Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish and Beckett Sennecke are all scoring less than 0.5 points per game. Most egregious, though, is Luk\u00e1\u0161 Dost\u00e1l, who has a grisly .853 save percentage during that time, the worst mark of any starter.<\/p>\n If there\u2019s any positive to be taken from this dry spell, though, it\u2019s that the Ducks are finally controlling play with 54.7 percent of the expected goals \u2014 the third-best mark in the league. Once the team\u2019s players start executing like many expect them to, Anaheim should get back on track. For now, they need to find a way out of this tailspin.<\/p>\n Dallas Stars<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Screenshot-2026-01-07-at-3.26.56\u202fPM.png\")
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xGF%: 43.2%
PP xGF\/60: 8.3
PK xGA\/60: 10.2<\/p>\n
xGF%: 47.8%
PP xGF\/60: 11.1
PK xGA\/60: 9.2<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Screenshot-2026-01-07-at-3.32.15\u202fPM.png\")
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