key actors in the repression of dissent<\/a> \u2014 have been spotted setting up checkpoints in Caracas. Preventive repression and uncertainty over the country\u2019s political future have contributed to maintaining quiet in the streets. However, expectations for political change or, at the very least, a less repressive environment, remain widespread, and the recent release of over 40 political prisoners may further raise these expectations, nurturing a latent risk of unrest.<\/p>\nWill Rodr\u00edguez face a potential outbreak of violence?<\/p>\n
A post-Maduro Venezuela faces multiple risks of violence, which could come from both within and without the Chavista power structure. As Hugo Ch\u00e1vez\u2019s handpicked successor, Maduro had managed to conciliate different currents of Chavismo, from the most averse to US imperialism \u2014 particularly in the security apparatus led by Padrino and Cabello \u2014 to those more amenable to the free market and liberalism. Rodr\u00edguez must perform a balancing act: avoid overt confrontation with the US and comply with some Washington demands without appearing too acquiescent, which would not bode well with more radical Chavista factions. Losing the favor of even part of the security apparatus, whose leaders \u2014 Padrino and Cabello \u2014 have outspokenly rejected the US intervention, could trigger violent power struggles.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But colectivos and the military are not the only actors with a stake in preventing a shift toward a more US-lenient regime. Colombian armed groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN) and some dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) have thrived in a relatively permissive environment and with the political backing of Maduro\u2019s government.\u00a0They have established a presence in the country, particularly in key drug trafficking corridors along the border with Colombia, as well as near gold mining and oil extraction sites, where Trump is pressuring US oil corporations to step up their presence and investment (see map below).\u00a0<\/p>\n
![\"Map-Venezuela-Activity-of-pro-government-armed-groups\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Map-Venezuela-Activity-of-pro-government-armed-groups.png\")
<\/p>\n
The ELN and FARC\u2019s General Central Staff, in particular, have pledged to defend the Bolivarian revolution in Venezuela and could put up an armed resistance against a government subdued by Washington. So far, this has been limited to issuing statements denouncing Maduro\u2019s extraction and signs that it has moved its leadership to border states.<\/p>\n
Finally, dozens of organized crime groups operate in Venezuela. The operations and size of most of these groups \u2014 which were once on good terms with Maduro\u2019s government \u2014 have been reduced in recent years, as Venezuela\u2019s economic collapse limited their criminal activity, and Maduro\u2019s administration drove a shift toward a more hardline approach to crime.\u00a0It\u2019s unlikely that organized crime groups will seek to play an active role in the country\u2019s political transition, but they add to the array of security challenges Rodr\u00edguez faces.<\/p>\n
Can further US action be expected in Venezuela?<\/p>\n
Washington has made clear that, if Rodr\u00edguez fails to meet its demands or if there are any official attempts to disrupt the transition, further US military actions will follow, even though Trump is confident that it will not be necessary.\u00a0However, having lost the element of surprise, another US strike could be met with more resistance and thus be deadlier, including on the US side. Furthermore, Maduro\u2019s removal has already raised suspicions and tensions within the Venezuelan government; targeting another high-ranking official would make internecine bloodshed more likely, particularly if it were to be someone who controls security forces and militias in the country, such as Cabello.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Washington\u2019s naval blockade is likely to continue hindering Venezuela\u2019s ability to commercialize US-sanctioned oil, as the US has shown its resolve to chase oil tankers attempting to evade its blockade as far as the North Atlantic, regardless of what flag they fly.\u00a0Undercutting oil revenues that helped to keep the Chavista elite united could increase pressure on Rodr\u00edguez to strike unfavorable deals with the US, hindering the government’s cohesion.<\/p>\n
It is unclear whether the Trump administration will continue using the targeting of suspected drug smuggling vessels at sea as a pressure tactic on the Venezuelan government, now that it has escalated to land attacks, and Maduro \u2014 the head of drug trafficking operations in the eyes of US prosecutors \u2014 is in a US jail. Trump has boasted that the strikes on 34 vessels since September, which killed 110 people, have halted maritime drug trafficking toward the US and hinted at the possibility of turning to drug cartels on Mexico\u2019s soil.\u00a0However, the US will likely want to gauge the full national and international consequences of the intervention in Venezuela and ensure that the country does not fall into chaos first. Yet, paradoxically, success in prompting a smooth transition in Venezuela with limited political backlash or even widespread approval in the US may increase the risk that direct military actions will become a feature of US policy in the region.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On 3 January, the United States carried out a military operation in Venezuela and captured President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":403198,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,3,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":["post-403197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-news","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=403197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403197\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/403198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=403197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=403197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=403197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"Map-Venezuela-US-strikes-in-Venezuela\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Map-Venezuela-US-strikes-in-Venezuela.png\")
<\/p>\n