Bitcoin held near $95,000 in early Hong Kong hours after a volatile rally earlier this week, with traders increasingly converging on one near-term expectation: a test of $100,000, but not a decisive breakout beyond it.<\/p>\n
Prediction markets show a 54% probability that bitcoin reaches $100,000 in January, according to one contract on Polymarket<\/a>, making it the most likely outcome by a wide margin. Odds fall sharply above that level, with just a 22% chance of $105,000 and an 8% chance of $110,000, suggesting traders expect momentum-driven probes rather than sustained upside.<\/p>\n Downside expectations have faded, with the probability of a move to $85,000 dropping to 15%.<\/p>\n Market makers describe the recent rally as largely mechanical. In a recent Telegram note, Flowdesk said bitcoin\u2019s move above $95,000 was driven by a \u201cviolent short squeeze,\u201d with call buyers stepping in as volatility spiked and skews shifted more bullish. ETF flows helped underpin the move, with more than $800 million of inflows, the highest level in three months, while improved top-of-book liquidity skewed toward bids across major venues.<\/p>\n Enflux framed the surge as an order-flow event rather than a macro repricing.<\/p>\n \u201cTests of $97,000 highlight reactive spikes absent broader catalysts,\u201d Enflux wrote in a note to CoinDesk, adding that the current environment favors tactical positioning over committed directional bets.<\/p>\n Ether continued to show relative strength near $3,300, supported by yield demand, while funding rates remained steady and leverage appeared contained, reinforcing the view among market makers that $100,000 is a level to be tested, not yet conquered.<\/p>\n BTC: Bitcoin briefly surged above $97,000 during U.S. trading hours before fading back toward $95,000 as short liquidations gave way to resistance and profit-taking.<\/p>\n ETH: Ether outperformed bitcoin, holding near $3,300 as yield-driven demand supported prices despite broader market volatility.<\/p>\n Gold: Gold and silver edged lower in early U.S. trading as easing geopolitical fears around Iran and President Trump\u2019s pledge not to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered risk aversion<\/p>\n Nikkei 225: Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.52% on Friday, underperforming mixed Asia-Pacific markets that broke ranks with a Wall Street rally led by chip and bank stocks.<\/p>\n Tokenization firms reject Coinbase’s crypto bill equities claim (CoinDesk<\/a>)<\/p>\n