Overall: The region\u2019s overall reading for January climbed to 52.0, its highest reading since July 2023, and up from December\u2019s 50.1. <\/a>The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.<\/p>\n \u201cMore than one of three bankers, or 34.7%, indicated that their local economy was currently in a recession. Another 26.9% expect their local economy to experience recession conditions in the first half of 2026,<\/a>\u201d <\/a>said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University\u2019s Heider College of Business<\/a>.<\/p>\n Regarding President Trump\u2019s imposition of tariffs, almost four of 10 bankers, or 38.4%, support pulling back on tariffs.<\/p>\n Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill. said, \u201cWe are still dry in Central Illinois. We probably have sufficient moisture to plant 2026 crops but will need timely rains as subsoil is depleted.\u201d<\/p>\n As stated by one bank CEO in the December survey, \u201cLow grain prices and higher input costs continue to plague our area farmers. The Trump $12B payment to producers will help but is not a cure.\u201d<\/p>\n The Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate setting committee, the FOMC, meets January 27-28 to consider changing rates. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, recommend reducing short-term interest rates by .25%.<\/a>\u00a0Approximately 73.1% advocate no change, while the remaining 3.8% support a rate increase.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Jeffrey Gerhart, former Chairman of the Independent Community Bankers Association said, \u201cInterest rate changes by the Fed should pause for the time being. The lag is \u2018long and variable,\u2019 meaning policymakers must act with foresight. The economy\u2019s response isn\u2019t immediate, making it challenging to perfectly time monetary policy.\u201d<\/p>\n Farming and ranchland prices: Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 18.8 but was up from December\u2019s even weaker 15.0. \u201c<\/a>This is the 29th\u00a0straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral<\/a>. Lower interest rates and the impending $12 billion of federal farm support have yet to stimulate farm equipment purchases,\u201d said Goss.<\/p>\n Banking:\u00a0The January loan volume index dropped to a solid 62.0 from December\u2019s 71.4. The checking deposit index fell to 66.0 from 69.0 in December. The region\u2019s index for certificates of deposits (CDs) improved to 54.0 from 52.4 in December. \u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n Hiring:\u00a0The new hiring index for January rose to 50.0 from December\u2019s 45.0. \u201cJob gains for non-farm rural employers have been soft for the last several months,\u201d said Goss.\u00a0<\/p>\n Confidence:\u00a0Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The January confidence index rose to 44.0, its highest reading since February 2023, and up from 40.9 in December. \u201cDespite $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, continue to weigh on banker confidence,\u201d said Goss.<\/p>\n Home and retail sales:\u00a0January home sales increased to\u00a0a weak 48.1 from December\u2019s 42.9. Regional retail sales sank to 48.1 from 54.8 in December.<\/a><\/p>\n The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.<\/p>\n Below are the state reports:<\/p>\n Illinois:\u00a0The state\u2019s January Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) declined to 50.1 from 53.4 in December.\u00a0 The farm and ranchland price index for January fell to 46.0 from 53.2 in December. The state\u2019s new hiring index for January improved to 50.0 from December\u2019s 46.9. Iowa: <\/a>January\u2019s RMI for the state climbed to 52.7 from 47.6 in December. Iowa\u2019s farm and ranchland price index for January sank to 46.1 from 51.3. Iowa\u2019s new hiring index for January increased to 49.0 from December\u2019s 43.7. According to the latest trade data from the ITA, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first 10 months of 2025 stood at $1.6\u00a0billion, compared to $1.4\u00a0billion for the same period in 2024, for a 34.7% increase.<\/p>\n Kansas:\u00a0The Kansas RMI for January improved to 50.7 from 49.3 in December. The state\u2019s farm and ranch land price index slumped to 41.4 from December\u2019s 51.8. The new hiring index for Kansas increased to 48.5 from December\u2019s 44.6. Minnesota:\u00a0The January RMI for Minnesota jumped to 55.2 from December\u2019s 52.6. Minnesota\u2019s farm and ranch land price index declined to 46.4 from December\u2019s 52.9. The new hiring index for January increased to 50.4 from 46.5 in December. Missouri:\u00a0The January RMI for the state climbed to 56.2 from 50.9 in December. The farm and ranchland price index for January sank to 46.5 from December\u2019s 52.4. The state\u2019s new hiring gauge for January rose to 50.5 from 45.5. Nebraska:\u00a0The state\u2019s Rural Mainstreet Index for January declined to 49.2 from December\u2019s regional high of 54.2. The state\u2019s farm and ranchland price index for January sank to 44.2 from December\u2019s 53.0. Nebraska\u2019s new hiring index increased to 48.1 from December\u2019s 46.4. According to the latest trade data from the ITA, Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first 10 months of 2025 stood at $1.1 billion, compared to $733.1 million for the same period in 2024, for a 45.1% increase.<\/a><\/p>\n North Dakota: The state\u2019s overall RMI for January climbed to 53.4 from 51.7 in December. The state\u2019s farm and ranchland price index dropped to 44.2 from 52.7 in December. The state\u2019s new hiring index improved to 50.2 from 46.0 in December. According to the latest trade data from the ITA, North Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first 10 months of 2025 stood at $875.3 million, compared to $912.6 million for the same period in 2024, for a 4.1% decline.<\/p>\n