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<\/p>\n\n\tAs of 5 p.m. PT, Oscar nomination voting is officially closed.<\/p>\n
\n\tMultiple conversations with Academy voters all throughout this week have revealed a race far more unpredictable than the pundits\u2019 consensus suggests. While some categories appear locked, others are poised for the kind of upheaval we haven\u2019t seen since 2003, when \u201cThe Lord of the Rings: Return of the King\u201d dominated, but nominations surprised across multiple categories, such as Keisha Castle-Hughes, Samantha Morton, Djimon Hounsou, Shohreh Aghdashloo and Marcia Gay Harden, along with a rare lone director nomination for another Brazilian auteur, Fernando Meirelles).<\/p>\n
\n\tHere are some of the revelations learned this week from voters:<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\t\tThe \u201cF1\u201d factor\t<\/p>\n
\n\tJoseph Kosinski\u2019s \u201cF1\u201d from Apple Original Films is very well-liked among voters and feels like a viable entry in the best picture race. The old Academy guard loves it. Voters repeatedly describe it as \u201cgreat\u201d and \u201cgood old-school entertainment,\u201d the kind of movie that could easily claim one of the 10 best picture slots despite a solid, albeit not overtly passionate, critical reception. Don\u2019t underestimate the power of the older voters who built this industry. This Brad Pitt and Damson Idris vehicle could zoom into the race, also given it has support to land three tech noms such as film editing, sound and visual effects and mimic a previous contender like \u201cFord v Ferrari\u201d (2019).<\/p>\n
\n\t\u201cI fucking love that movie,\u201d one anonymous voter of the Producers Branch says.<\/p>\n
\n\tThink of it like \u201ccomfort food\u201d with AMPAS members.<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNeon<\/p>\n
\t\tThe International Film Split\t<\/p>\n
\n\tThe international enthusiasm is genuine, but it\u2019s also fractured. Neon has flooded the zone with non-English-language films, creating an unexpected problem: vote splitting.<\/p>\n
\n\tNorway\u2019s \u201cSentimental Value,\u201d Brazil\u2019s \u201cThe Secret Agent,\u201d South Korea\u2019s \u201cNo Other Choice\u201d and France\u2019s \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d all have aspirations beyond the international feature category, particularly in best picture. More importantly, they are vying for attention from voters who frankly don\u2019t watch as many movies as industry insiders assume.<\/p>\n
\n\t\u201cSentimental Value\u201d is undoubtedly the priority watch among the titles, sailing toward multiple nominations, including best picture, possibly director, and three or four acting nods. But here\u2019s the revelation that matters: \u201cIt Was Just an Accident,\u201d while admired and respected, may not have the broad support to crack picture, director or screenplay. Some conversations with voters also suggest it could be one of the big snubs of the day, including in international feature, where the race is surprisingly competitive.<\/p>\n
\n\t\u201cThat movie [\u2018It Was Just an Accident\u2019] never came up in my algorithm,\u201d one voter admits. \u201cI don\u2019t know what that is.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n\tTunisia\u2019s \u201cThe Voice of Hind Rajab\u201d has considerable support. Also watch for \u201cKukoho\u201d from Japan, \u201cThe President\u2019s Cake\u201d from Iraq, Switzerland\u2019s \u201cLate Shift,\u201d Taiwan\u2019s \u201cLeft Handed Girl\u201d (co-written by last year\u2019s four-time Oscar winner Sean Baker) and Germany\u2019s \u201cSound of Falling.\u201d<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\u201cOne Battle After Another<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u00a9Warner Bros\/Courtesy Everett C<\/p>\n \t\tWhy the surplus rule could decide the director race.\t<\/p>\n \n\tThis year\u2019s director race may be decided less by passion and more by mathematics.<\/p>\n \n\tUnder the Academy\u2019s preferential nomination system, voters rank their choices. Once ballots are cast, a \u201cmagic number\u201d \u2014 the quota required to secure a nomination \u2014 is calculated. For most categories, that number is determined by dividing the total ballots by six and adding one. For the best picture category, it\u2019s the total ballots divided by 11, plus one.<\/p>\n \n\tHere\u2019s where the surplus rule comes in.<\/p>\n \n\tIf a contender receives significantly more votes than needed to hit that quota, those extra votes are not discarded. Instead, they are redistributed \u2014 at a reduced, fractional value \u2014 to the voter\u2019s second choice (or third, if the second choice is already safe). In best picture, this redistribution is triggered when a film receives 10% more than the quota; in other categories, it\u2019s triggered at 20%.<\/p>\n \n\tThe goal is to prevent wasted votes and reward consensus.<\/p>\n \n\tThis is why Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s strength could quietly reshape the director lineup beneath him. If Anderson overwhelmingly clears the quota (which many think he might), his surplus votes could be redistributed across secondary choices \u2014 and those choices are not uniform. Some Anderson voters lean toward Josh Safdie, others toward Guillermo del Toro, Joachim Trier or Ryan Coogler.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cI love Guillermo,\u201d one voter declares. \u201cI\u2019ll vote for him every time, no matter what.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tI have found that a \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d voter tends to be a \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d voter, but what is clear is that loving \u201cOne Battle\u201d does not automatically translate to voting for Safdie. That fragmentation makes the director race unusually fluid and dangerously close.<\/p>\n \n\tThis may be one of the tightest director lineups in years.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tsabrina lantos<\/p>\n \t\tLucky number seven in best actor, but which will be the luckier five?\t<\/p>\n \n\tBest actor appears to be a genuine toss-up between Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Michael B. Jordan, Wagner Moura, Jesse Plemons and a potential surprise in Joel Edgerton for \u201cTrain Dreams.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tThe key factor isn\u2019t always the performance itself but the movie\u2019s overall strength and what I call \u201ccoattail votes.\u201d If Emma Stone ranks high among best actress voters, Jesse Plemons benefits from voters who put both on their ballots. Ethan Hawke enjoys similar advantages, given his popularity within the Actors Branch and his film\u2019s likely original screenplay nomination (and even a potential surprise in best picture), which could even help it snag the last best picture slot.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cThat is my favorite movie of the year,\u201d one artisan branch member tells Variety about Richard Linklater\u2019s \u201cBlue Moon.\u201d \u201cI don\u2019t know how you don\u2019t vote for Ethan Hawke and Andrew Scott.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tWagner Moura won the Golden Globe for best actor (drama) at the perfect moment. I know many feel like his trajectory (along with the film) is mimicking Fernanda Torres and \u201cI\u2019m Still Here\u201d last season. However, based on current voter sentiment, Moura feels far more vulnerable than Torres did at this stage.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n