{"id":419094,"date":"2026-01-20T17:17:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T17:17:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/419094\/"},"modified":"2026-01-20T17:17:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T17:17:08","slug":"is-a-new-gambling-trend-driving-us-toward-armageddon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/419094\/","title":{"rendered":"Is a new gambling trend driving us toward armageddon?"},"content":{"rendered":"

For the 57,000 inhabitants of Greenland, the future is uncertain. Plans to buy or annex the nation by the US have triggered a standoff with Denmark (which holds sovereignty over Greenland as an autonomous territory), the EU, and NATO. The resulting trade war could result in financial losses on both sides, while troops have been dispatched<\/a> in case a real war breaks out. What\u2019s the actual likelihood that the US acquires Greenland before the year is out, though? As of writing: 20 per cent. A partial takeover nets you slightly better odds.<\/p>\n

A few years ago, it would have been impossible to put a concrete number on the likelihood of any given outcome in a geopolitical incident like the Greenland crisis. Today, it comes courtesy of \u2018prediction markets\u2019 \u2013 online platforms that allow you to gamble on real-world events. In the last few years these platforms have seen a sharp rise in popularity, alongside a broader rise<\/a> in gambling (and problem gambling<\/a>) that\u2019s especially prevalent among young people<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Billions of dollars flow through prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi each week, with some users netting hundreds of thousands from betting on… basically anything. Examples include Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet winning Best Actor at the Oscars, the amount of tweets by chronically online poster Elon Musk in a given week, aliens being confirmed by 2027, or whether a new Rihanna album will drop before GTA VI<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The platforms also enable more controversial trades to take place, though, on issues like: will the US or Israel strike Iran first? In a disclaimer about \u201cMiddle East markets\u201d displayed by Polymarket, the site states that the aim is to \u201charness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts\u201d about important events. \u201cThat ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today,\u201d it reads. \u201cAfter discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realised that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.\u201d<\/p>\n

Whether or not you agree with this aim (admittedly, it\u2019s hard to believe in the \u201cwisdom of the crowd\u201d in the big 2026) prediction markets have been mired in controversy and conspiracy theories in recent months, which only grow more relevant as they rise in popularity.\u00a0<\/p>\n

got a buddy who is praying for world war 3 so he can win $390 on polymarket<\/p>\n

\u2014 Buck (@BuckOnTwidder) January 14, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Basically, users vote on yes-or-no questions, betting against each other by buying so-called \u201ccontracts\u201d (someone who believes that the existence of aliens will be confirmed by 2027, for example, would buy contracts representing the \u201cyes\u201d option). Depending on the likelihood of the event taking place, the cost of a contract fluctuates, while the payout when an event actually happens is set at $1. If, for example, you spent $20 buying 100 \u201cyes\u201d contracts on the existence of aliens at $0.20, and aliens were confirmed before the end of the year \u2013\u00a0fingers crossed \u2013 you\u2019d get a return of $100.<\/p>\n

Unlike typical bookmakers, where you bet against \u201cthe house\u201d and they set the odds accordingly, contracts work more like financial shares, with opposing users matched up to essentially bet against each other. The platform makes money via trading fees.<\/p>\n

Without a bookmaker acting as an intermediary, some prediction markets \u2013\u00a0like Polymarket \u2013\u00a0have been able to skirt gambling regulations, operating in a legal \u201cgrey area<\/a>\u201d. Due to this, Polymarket was actually inaccessible for US users from 2022 to December 2025, until the Trump administration relaxed regulations that blocked it from operating. This isn\u2019t too surprising, since Trump used Polymarket graphs to boast about his odds of winning the presidential election in 2024, and Donald Trump Jr is linked to both Polymarket and Kalshi as an advisor. In fact, Donald Trump has even tried to launch<\/a> his own Polymarket competitor, via Truth Social.<\/p>\n

Kalshi, which is largely used for sports betting, has faced several battles with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over the legality of betting on elections. In 2024, it won a high-profile case, essentially laying the blueprint for gamifying politics in the US.\u00a0<\/p>\n

My main concern about insiders trading on prediction markets is not that decisions will leak, but that it incentivizes corruption.<\/p>\n

E.g. inside traders could profit more by pushing for unexpected decisions.<\/p>\n

Such harms could plausibly outweigh all benefits of prediction markets. https:\/\/t.co\/j0Wh2j6MVa<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Richard Ngo (@RichardMCNgo) October 10, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Besides legal challenges, Kalshi has drawn criticism for aggressively marketing to younger audiences, and hosting bets on critical issues like food insecurity in Gaza. Recently, the Golden Globes also drew fire for an exclusive partnership with Polymarket, which was described as a \u201cgroundbreaking new frontier\u201d by organisers and an \u201cend times indicator<\/a>\u201d by less enthusiastic viewers.<\/p>\n

Gamblers themselves have had some big issues with prediction markets in recent weeks as well. Before US military forces seized Venezuelan president Nicol\u00e1s Maduro at the beginning of the year and promised to \u201crun\u201d the country for an unspecified amount of time, users had placed millions of dollars on the US invasion of Venezuela by a certain date (most commonly January 31, 2026). However, Polymarket refused to pay out due to a lack of clarity over the term \u201cinvasion\u201d. Angered users called the decision arbitrary and \u201cabsurd\u201d.<\/p>\n

Just before the \u201cillegal<\/a>\u201d capture of Maduro, an anonymous, recently-created account bet $32,537 on four Venezuela-based contracts, netting over $436,000<\/a>. This fuelled theories about insider trading on the platform. Shortly after, Democrat congressman Ritchie Torres responded<\/a> via a bill that would ban government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they possess \u201cmaterial nonpublic information\u201d.<\/p>\n

The invasion of Venezuela isn\u2019t the only issue on the receiving end of conspiracy allegations, though. Wagers on military action in Iran and Palestine have also raised suspicions about links to Israeli intelligence. On social media, some have pointed toward supposed links<\/a> between prediction markets and more traditional military intelligence methods, as well as backing<\/a> by influential right-wing figures like Peter Thiel.<\/p>\n

Insider trading on war and suffering might seem bad enough, but there\u2019s also the question of bad incentives set by prediction markets, unless they crack down. What happens, for example, when a politician or military official stands to make a massive personal profit from stoking conflict in the Middle East? What happens when presidential candidates are traded like meme stocks? Probably nothing good!<\/p>\n