{"id":425399,"date":"2026-01-23T17:30:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T17:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/425399\/"},"modified":"2026-01-23T17:30:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T17:30:08","slug":"tynan-lawrences-start-at-bu-malhotra-vs-desnoyers-prospects-to-watch-at-2026-olympics-mailbag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/425399\/","title":{"rendered":"Tynan Lawrence\u2019s start at BU, Malhotra vs. Desnoyers, prospects to watch at 2026 Olympics: Mailbag"},"content":{"rendered":"

My midseason 2026 NHL Draft rankings<\/a> are out, and that means it\u2019s time for another prospects mailbag.<\/p>\n

You submitted questions. Here, I\u2019ve answered a dozen of the big ones on Tynan Lawrence\u2019s start at BU, prospects going to the Olympics, Caleb Malhotra versus Caleb Desnoyers, the top-end small D and more.<\/p>\n

Note: Questions are lightly edited for clarity and length. Similar questions are grouped. If you submitted a question and I didn\u2019t answer it below, I\u2019ll be answering the rest of the submissions here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What should we make of Tynan Lawrence\u2019s lack of production so far at BU? \u2014 Aavcocup A. and John M.<\/p>\n

This was the most-requested question and feels like the big one to start with, and the topic du jour in this draft class.<\/p>\n

First, let\u2019s establish the context. Here are his official NCAAA numbers so far: 5 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 5 SOG, -2, 15:55 ATOI. According to InStat (the scouting service we use, but not an official record holder), he also has 11 shot attempts, two hits, two executed passes to the slot, has won 49 percent of his draws and is averaging nearly two and a half minutes per game on the power play. His opponents in those five games have been Harvard, UMass (x2) and UMass-Lowell (x2), who rank 20th, 28th and 49th, respectively, in NPI (the NCAA\u2019s new index for selecting and seeding the national tournament). He\u2019s also an August 2008 birthday and the second-youngest player currently playing in college hockey to fellow second-semester newcomer Oscar Hemming (they were born 10 days apart).<\/p>\n

If your glass is half full, they\u2019re clearly easing him in and making the jump at midseason to a new city, new team, new system, new linemates and new level, while sorting out school, deserves some grace, especially considering how young he is.<\/p>\n

If your glass is half empty, you\u2019d point out that he seems to be generating little at five-on-five and the power play, his opponents haven\u2019t exactly been a murderer\u2019s row of college hockey\u2019s best, and we\u2019ve got direct comparables of players who haven\u2019t been viewed as top-of-the-draft prospects and have performed better making that midseason jump. That includes Hemming this month at BC, who has two points and eight shots in four games in identical minutes and hadn\u2019t played hockey all year coming in. But it also includes Will Horcoff, who scored in his NCAA debut a year ago and had 10 points in 18 games after making the midseason move to Michigan.<\/p>\n

The reality is somewhere in the middle. Lawrence was born five weeks away from 2027 draft eligibility and had been arguably the best player in the USHL, a hard league to score in at 16 and 17, for more than a year. He\u2019s a premium prospect at a premium position with a ton of pro attributes. But he hasn\u2019t looked first-overall conversation caliber in college, and there were questions about his ceiling offensively before this that now feel more real. If he steps up, he\u2019ll be allowed to play his way out of it and get the benefit of the doubt and the glass-half-full case for the slow start.<\/p>\n

It has been an unconventional draft year, though. Lawrence could have played in the QMJHL this year, where he and his draft stock would have both done well, but he chose to return to Muskegon and be the team\u2019s captain. When he made that choice (while others were leaving the USHL for the CHL), his company line was that he was doing it because he wanted to lead the Lumberjacks to back-to-back titles. Then he left after playing just 13 games.<\/p>\n

His draft year isn\u2019t over, and there\u2019s plenty of hockey left to be played, but these are things that NHL teams are going to ask him about in the lead-up now.<\/p>\n

Are there any prospects headed to the Olympics this year worth keeping an eye on? \u2014 Cedric S.<\/p>\n

How do you think playing in the Olympics is likely to impact how Smits is perceived by NHL teams? \u2014 Rowen B.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s my working list of young players I\u2019ll be watching:<\/p>\n

Slovakia:<\/p>\n

G Adam Gajan (Blackhawks)
\nF Dalibor Dvorsky (Blues)<\/p>\n

Italy:<\/p>\n

Latvia:<\/p>\n

D Alberts Smits (2026)
\nF Dans Locmelis (Bruins)
\nF Sandis Vilmanis (Panthers)<\/p>\n

Denmark:<\/p>\n

F Oscar Fisker Molgaard (Kraken)<\/p>\n

Smits is the big one. We\u2019ve seen men\u2019s international events play a role in elevating a player\u2019s draft stock. Men\u2019s worlds cemented Moritz Seider as a top prospect in 2019. Juraj Slafkovsk\u00fd\u2019s performances at men\u2019s worlds and the Olympics were at the center of the Habs\u2019 decision to take him at No. 1. And if Smits plays well on a Latvian blue line that could need him, it\u2019ll matter. He\u2019s going to be a top-10 pick in this draft. A strong showing against NHLers could solidify him as a top-five pick down the stretch.<\/p>\n

And he\u2019s not a prospect anymore, but I think this could be a coming-out party for the Devils\u2019 2022 No. 2 pick Simon Nemec, who I expect to play a big role for Slovakia.<\/p>\n

How would you compare Caleb Malhotra to 2025 No. 4 pick and two-way pivot Caleb Desnoyers? \u2014 Reed L.<\/p>\n

There are definitely some similarities. They\u2019re both 6-foot-1\/2, 180ish-pound centers who are viewed as leaders and 200-foot players who respect the little details of the game. They\u2019re both very intelligent players who think the game at a high level. Both are big parts of winning teams with championship aspirations in their draft years.<\/p>\n

Desnoyers had a greater pedigree coming into his draft year, though. He was the first pick in the Q, he\u2019d played and won gold at U18 worlds as an underager with Canada that spring and was coming off a 56-in-60 season at 16 and was on the QMJHL\u2019s All-Rookie Team. Malhotra wasn\u2019t viewed as a top-10 pick coming into his draft year, and Desnoyers was in that conversation in his.<\/p>\n

Desnoyers was also a little more productive in his draft year (he finished with 114 points in 75 combined regular-season and playoff games) and won QMJHL Playoffs MVP, and Malhotra is currently playing at a 102-point 75-game pace. There\u2019s a very real possibility that Brantford wins the OHL title and Malhotra is playing in the Memorial Cup a year after Desnoyers did, and if Malhotra continues to play like he has this year, I think there\u2019s a scenario where he goes as high as Desnoyers did in the draft.<\/p>\n

How has the changing development landscape (college eligibility opening up to CHL, etc.) impacted what you do? How hard is it to evaluate leagues like the USHL or BCHL now that they\u2019re not the only way for a college-bound prospect to keep their eligibility? \u2014 Michael F.<\/p>\n

In the first half of the season, anecdotally, I thought I was going to be watching the USHL less than I actually did. They lost some players to the CHL for sure, but I\u2019ve still watched a lot of Muskegon (Lawrence, obviously, but also Rudolfs Berzkalns) and Youngstown (Jack Hextall and Evan Jardine are the draft-eligible focus there), some Des Moines (Blake Zielinski) and some Green Bay (Landon Hafele), as well as a bunch of drafted prospects more recently for my pool rankings. Tri-City and Chicago also have some notable players for 2027. I still have a lot of time for the level of that league. It\u2019s a challenging, competitive league that is hard to score in.<\/p>\n

I haven\u2019t watched a single BCHL game this year, though, and the only Tier 2 junior I\u2019ve watched in Ontario was to watch 7-footer Alexander Karmanov when he was with the Brantford Titans. You\u2019ll notice their absence on NHL Central Scouting\u2019s midseason list, too. That, I fear, is going to be the new norm.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the deepest position at this year\u2019s draft by your estimation? \u2014 Patrick S.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s deepest on the wing and on D. There are just three centers in my top 17 (Lawrence, Malhotra and Viggo Bjorck) to seven wingers and seven defensemen (three lefties, four righties). Last year, by contrast, I had eight centers in my top 15!<\/p>\n

This is also a very weak goalie class. If I were putting together my final top 100 today, there would be just one goalie in it. I don\u2019t have a goalie in my top 64. Last year, there were six goalies in my top 64.<\/p>\n

Who are your three favorite players that you did not rank? \u2014 Doug J.<\/p>\n

Tri-City American import Jakub Vanecek was my last cut on D for this week\u2019s list, and Ottawa 67\u2019s center Thomas Vandenberg was my last cut at forward. Vandenberg was on my previous list. They\u2019re in that sixth tier I had and comparable prospects to those I ranked in the 50s and early 60s. They\u2019ll also both get picked ahead of a bunch of names on my list. Vanecek, in particular, is trending right now. He has played very well since returning from the World Juniors with Czechia.<\/p>\n

Curious where you think the three smaller D (Ryan Lin, Xavier Villeneuve and Axel Elofsson) will go? \u2014 Austin S.<\/p>\n

If Denton Mateychuk went 12th, I think that should be Lin\u2019s range. But there\u2019s definitely a scenario where he goes late teens or early 20s. I\u2019d obviously disagree.<\/p>\n

I think about Olen Zellweger\u2019s range (early Day 2 if a team really believes in him) as the ceiling for Elofsson, but he\u2019s much more likely a third-round guy, and his floor might even be lower than that.<\/p>\n

Villeneuve is a complete wild card.<\/p>\n

Only so many teams that will take them, and those teams only have so many picks \u2014 and are unlikely to take two of them.<\/p>\n

I\u2019d add a fourth player to that list, though: Moncton\u2019s Tommy Bleyl. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s completely out of the question that he goes in front of Elofsson. He\u2019s playing some very good hockey right now, skates like the wind, his camp of believers is growing, and he\u2019s got very tall relatives on both sides of his family. Belief is he\u2019s going to keep growing (I was told recently he\u2019s just a hair under 6-feet now).<\/p>\n

Who are your potential mid-to-late first-round steals? Guys who have top of the draft potential, but might fall for one reason or another. \u2014 Andreas S.<\/p>\n

If Lin, Bjorck or Villeneuve are around in the second half of the first round, they\u2019re my answer. One will be. Two could well be. All three lingering aren\u2019t completely out of the question, either.<\/p>\n

I like Marcus Nordmark as the top talent once the big names are gone, too. And I\u2019m higher than most on Nikita Klepov, who isn\u2019t even guaranteed to be a first-rounder.<\/p>\n

How would you tier the hockey leagues outside of the NHL? \u2014 Anthony S. and Brendan S.<\/p>\n

Tier 1: KHL, SHL, AHL.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re all very close. The KHL used to be the clear No. 1. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the case anymore. Most of the non-Russian European players who played there pre-war in Ukraine left and haven\u2019t returned, which has hurt the level.<\/p>\n

Tier 2: NL, Liiga, DEL, Czech Extraliga.<\/p>\n

It used to be that Liiga was the strongest of that tier, but its finances have made it tough to compete with the higher salaries that are available in Switzerland. If the DEL hasn\u2019t already passed Liiga, it\u2019s close, too.<\/p>\n

Tier 3: HockeyAllsvenskan, ECHL, Slovak Extraliga, and then VHL, EIHL, EBEL, etc.<\/p>\n

Would you say that this year\u2019s draft is weaker than expected? Could you compare this year\u2019s projected top five to last year\u2019s top five? \u2014 Rick A.<\/p>\n

I would say this year\u2019s draft is exactly what I expected. It\u2019s weaker than some others in the public sphere said it would be, but I\u2019ve been downplaying the hype since last year\u2019s trade deadline, and I want that on the historical record! It\u2019s an average to below-average draft.<\/p>\n

To answer the second part of your question, let\u2019s say Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, Keaton Verhoeff, Tynan Lawrence and Chase Reid are still the consensus top five from this year\u2019s draft (I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the case anymore, but those are the most common names readers will have heard this year). If I\u2019m ranking those five and the first five picks from last year\u2019s draft, it probably looks something like this for me without giving it too much thought:<\/p>\n

1. Matthew Schaefer
2-4: Ivar Stenberg, Gavin McKenna, Michael Misa
5-6: Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid
7-9: Anton Frondell, Caleb Desnoyers, Tynan Lawrence
10. Brady Martin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"My midseason 2026 NHL Draft rankings are out, and that means it\u2019s time for another prospects mailbag. You…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":425400,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[385,99],"class_list":{"0":"post-425399","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl","8":"tag-nhl","9":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=425399"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425399\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/425400"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=425399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=425399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=425399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}