\n\tAll in all, it was a remarkable showing for Sinners \u2014\u00a0but was it enough<\/a> to jolt the widely held belief that One Battle After Another, which already won top honors at the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards, is the film to beat for the best picture Oscar?<\/p>\n \n\tOver the 16 seasons since the Academy returned to a preferential\/ranked-choice ballot to determine its best picture winner, the film with the most noms (or one of the films that tied for the most noms) went on to win best picture only six times (Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Shape of Water, Birdman, The King\u2019s Speech and The Hurt Locker). But 16 noms \u2014 three more than the second-most-nominated film (One Battle) and seven more than the third (Frankenstein, Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value tied with nine) \u2014 feels like a statement<\/a>. And an increasing number of smart industry insiders believe that Sinners is better positioned than One Battle moving forward.<\/p>\n \n\tRegardless, it will be interesting to see how these two films \u2014\u00a0both from great filmmakers who are telling largely original stories about race in America \u2014\u00a0are promoted during phase two, not least because they share the same distributor, Warner Bros., which, largely because of them, led all studios by far with 30 noms \u2026 and is now, ironically enough, in the process of being sold. (Fun fact: It has been more than a half-century since we last had a best picture race in which there were exactly two clear frontrunners and both hailed from the same studio \u2014 Paramount\u2019s\u00a0Chinatown vs. The Godfather Part II, which co-led the field with 11 noms each, 51 years ago!)<\/p>\n \n\tI expect that Warners will give its two films equal treatment \u2014\u00a0as it has done thus far, as best as I can tell, with FYC ads, billboards, etc. \u2014\u00a0and let the chips fall where they may. (Indeed, even at award shows, studio co-chiefs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy split up so that one can sit with the One Battle folks and the other can sit with the Sinners folks.) But this won\u2019t stop personal reps from going all out on behalf of their respective clients.<\/p>\n \n\tIn any event, my first post-noms read of all 24 Oscar races can be found below. The final round of Oscars voting will begin on Feb. 26 and end on March 5. And the 98th Oscars ceremony, to be hosted by Conan O\u2019Brien, will follow on March 15.<\/p>\n \n\tPLEASE REMEMBER: Scott\u2019s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. He arrives at his projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.<\/p>\n \tBest Picture<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Director<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Actor<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Actress<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Supporting Actor<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Supporting Actress<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Adapted Screenplay<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Original Screenplay<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest International Feature<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Documentary Feature<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Animated Feature<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Casting<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Cinematography<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Costume Design<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Film Editing<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Makeup and Hairstyling<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Original Score<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Original Song<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Production Design<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Sound<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Nominees \tBest Visual Effects<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Animated Short<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Documentary Short<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish \tBest Live Action Short<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tProjected Order of Finish![\"Teyana](\"https:\/\/www.hollywoodreporter.com\/wp-content\/themes\/vip\/pmc-hollywoodreporter-2021\/assets\/public\/lazyload-fallback.gif\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Ryan Coogler, Zinzi Coogler and Sev Ohanian
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy and Adam Somner
3. Hamnet (Focus) \u2014\u00a0Nicolas Gonda, Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes and Steven Spielberg \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a> (Spielberg)
4. Sentimental Value (Neon) \u2014\u00a0Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berensten Ottmar
5. Marty Supreme (A24) \u2014 Ronald Bronstein, Eli Bush, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet,\u00a0Anthony Katagas and Josh Safdie \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a> (Chalamet)
6. Train Dreams (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Michael Heimler, Will Janowitz, Marissa McMahon, Ashley Schlaifer and Teddy Schwarzman
7. Frankenstein (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro and Scott Stuber \u2014\u00a0podcast 1<\/a>, 2<\/a> and 3<\/a> (del Toro)
8. F1 (Apple\/Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Jerry Bruckheimer, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, Chad Oman and Brad Pitt \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a> (Bruckheimer)
9. The Secret Agent (Neon) \u2014\u00a0Emilie Lesclaux
10. Bugonia (Focus) \u2014\u00a0Ed Guiney, Lars Knudsen, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe and Emma Stone \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a> (Stone)<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Focus Features\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
3. Chlo\u00e9 Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)
4. Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: A24\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet for Marty Supreme (A24) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a>
2. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a>
3. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
4. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent (Neon) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a>
5. Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon (Sony Classics) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a><\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Focus Features\/Courtesy Everett Collection\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Jessie Buckley for Hamnet (Focus)
2. Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue (Focus) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a>
3. Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You (A24) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a>
4. Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Emma Stone for Bugonia (Focus) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a><\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Neon\/Courtesy Everett Collection\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value (Neon) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a>
2. Delroy Lindo for Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a>
3. Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a>
4. Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) \u2014 podcast<\/a>
5. Sean Penn for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a><\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Quantrell Colbert\/Warner Bros.\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Amy Madigan for Weapons (Warner Bros.) \u2014 podcast<\/a>
3. Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value (Neon) \u2014 podcast<\/a>
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value (Neon)<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Courtesy of Netflix\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Hamnet (Focus) \u2014\u00a0Maggie O\u2019Farrell & Chlo\u00e9 Zhao
3. Train Dreams (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
4. Bugonia (Focus) \u2014\u00a0Will Tracy
5. Frankenstein (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Guillermo del Toro\u00a0\u2014 podcast 1<\/a>, 2<\/a> and 3<\/a><\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Courtesy of Cannes\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Ryan Coogler
2. Sentimental Value (Neon) \u2014\u00a0Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
3. Marty Supreme (A24) \u2014\u00a0Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
4. It Was Just an Accident (Neon) \u2014\u00a0Jafar Panahi \u2014 podcast<\/a>
5. Blue Moon (Sony Classics) \u2014 Robert Kaplow<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Neon\/Courtesy Everett Collection\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Norway \u2014\u00a0Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. Brazil \u2014\u00a0The Secret Agent (Neon)
3. France \u2014\u00a0It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
4. Tunisia \u2014 The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa)
5. Spain \u2014\u00a0Sir\u0101t (Neon)<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Courtesy of HBO\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Sam Bisbee, Geeta Gandbhir, Nikon Kwantu and Alisa Payne
2. The Alabama Solution (HBO) \u2014\u00a0Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Kino Lorber) \u2014\u00a0TBD
4. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple) \u2014\u00a0Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, Ryan White and Stef Willen
5. Cutting Through Rocks (still seeking U.S. distribution) \u2014\u00a0Mohammadreza Eyni and Sara Khaki<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Remebers – MountainA\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Chris Appelhans, Maggie Kang and Michelle L.M. Wong
2. Zootopia 2 (Disney) \u2014\u00a0Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino
3. Arco (Neon) \u2014\u00a0Ugo Bienvenu, F\u00e9lix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a> (Portman)
4. Little Am\u00e9lie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS) \u2014\u00a0Liane-Cho Han, Henri Magalon, Nidia Santiago and Ma\u00eflys Vallade
5. Elio (Disney\/Pixar) \u2014 Mary Alice Drumm,\u00a0Adrian Molina, Madeline Sharafian and Domee Shi<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Neon\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Francine Maisler
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Cassandra Kulukundis
3. Marty Supreme (A24) \u2014\u00a0Jennifer Venditti
4. Hamnet (Focus) \u2014\u00a0Nina Gold
5. The Secret Agent (Neon) \u2014\u00a0Gabriel Domingues<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Ken Woroner\/Netflix\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Train Dreams (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Adolpho Veloso
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Autumn Durald Arkapaw
3. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Michael Bauman
4. Marty Supreme (A24) \u2014\u00a0Darius Khondji
5. Frankenstein (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Dan Laustsen<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: 20th Century Studios\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Kate Hawley
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Ruth E. Carter \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a>
3. Hamnet (Focus) \u2014\u00a0Malgosia Turzanska
4. Marty Supreme (A24) \u2014\u00a0Miyako Bellizzi
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) \u2014\u00a0Deborah L. Scott<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Scott Garfield\/Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures\/Apple Original Films\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. F1 (Apple\/Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Stephen Mirrione
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)\u00a0\u2014\u00a0Andy Jurgensen
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Michael Shawver
4. Marty Supreme (A24) \u2014\u00a0Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
5. Sentimental Value (Neon) \u2014\u00a0Olivier Bugge Coutt\u00e9<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: GKIDS\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Cliona Furey, Mike Hill and Jordan Samuel
2. The Smashing Machine (A24) \u2014 Glen Griffin, Kazu Hiro and Bjoern Rehbein
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
4. Kokuho (GKIDS) \u2014\u00a0Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu and Kyoko Toyokawa
5. The Ugly Stepsister (IFC\/Shudder) \u2014\u00a0Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Focus Features\/Courtesy Everett Collection\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Ludwig G\u00f6ransson
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Johnny Greenwood
3. Frankenstein (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Alexandre Desplat
4. Hamnet (Focus) \u2014\u00a0Max Richter
5. Bugonia (Focus) \u2014\u00a0Jerskin Fendrix<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: SimonSays Entertainment\/Courtesy Everett Collection\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. \u201cGolden\u201d from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick \u2014 listen<\/a>
2. \u201cI Lied to You\u201d from Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig G\u00f6ransson \u2014 listen<\/a>
3. \u201cDear Me\u201d from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass) \u2014 Diane Warren \u2014\u00a0listen<\/a> \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a>
4. \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d from Train Dreams (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner \u2014 listen<\/a>
5. \u201cSweet Dreams of Joy\u201d from Viva Verdi! (still seeking U.S. distribution) \u2014\u00a0Nicholas Pike \u2014\u00a0listen<\/a><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne
3. Hamnet (Focus) \u2014\u00a0Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
4. Marty Supreme (A24) \u2014\u00a0Jack Fisk and Adam Willis
5. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Anthony Carlino and Florencia Martin<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Neon\/Courtesy Everett Collection\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. F1 (Apple\/Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary Rizzo and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Steve Boeddeker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pachecho, Brandon Proctor and Chris Welcker
3. Frankenstein (Netflix) \u2014\u00a0Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaille and Brad Zoern
4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Jos\u00e9 Antonio Garc\u00eda, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
5. Sir\u0101t (Neon) \u2014\u00a0Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas and Amanda Villavieja<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Apple TV+\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) \u2014\u00a0Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri and Eric Saindon
2. F1 (Apple\/Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Nicolas Chevalier, Keith Dawson, Robert Harrington and Ryan Tudhope
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) \u2014\u00a0Donnie Dean, Espen Nordahl, Michael Ralla and Guido Wolter
4. Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal) \u2014\u00a0Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould and David Vickery
5. The Lost Bus (Apple) \u2014\u00a0Russell Bowen, Brandon K. McLaughlin, Charlie Noble and David Zaretti<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Antidote Films\/Courtesy Everett Collection\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Retirement Plan \u2014 Andrew Freedman and John Kelly
2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls \u2014\u00a0Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
3. Forevergreen \u2014\u00a0Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
4. The Three Sisters \u2014 Konstantin Bronzit
5. Butterfly \u2014\u00a0Ron dyens and Florence Miailhe<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Courtesy of HBO\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. All the Empty Rooms \u2014\u00a0Conall Jones and Joshua Seftel \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a> (Seftel)
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud \u2014 Juan Arredondo and Craig Renaud
3. Children No More: \u201cWere and Are Gone\u201d \u2014\u00a0Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins \u2014\u00a0podcast<\/a> (Nevins)
4. Perfectly a Strangeness \u2014\u00a0Alison McAlpine
5. The Devil Is Busy \u2014\u00a0Geeta Gandbhir and Christalyn Hampton<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Tel Aviv University Film & Television Department\/Courtesy Everett Collection\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
1. Two People Exchanging Saliva \u2014\u00a0Natalie Musteata and Alexandre Singh
2. The Singers \u2014\u00a0Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
3. A Friend of Dorothy \u2014\u00a0James Dean and Lee Knight
4. Jane Austen\u2019s Period Drama \u2014\u00a0Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
5. Butcher\u2019s Stain \u2014\u00a0Oron Caspi and Meyer Levinson-Blount<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A NOTE FROM SCOTT Well, we have some answers. On Thursday morning, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":425871,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[10546,88,98283,29506,85403],"class_list":["post-425870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-entertainment","tag-awards","tag-entertainment","tag-feinberg-forecast","tag-oscars","tag-oscars-2026"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=425870"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425870\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/425871"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=425870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=425870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=425870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}