Michelle Garrison, a state water resources specialist, saw something missing on her January drive from Oregon to Denver. No ice on the roads. No snow in the foothills.<\/p>\n
Her mind turned to drought and reservoirs and the recently expired drought management agreement between Colorado and three other states.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt makes me think that this year is going to be a real challenge,\u201d she said. \u201cIt looked like November everywhere I drove.\u201d<\/p>\n
Garrison presented this year\u2019s outlook Monday during a meeting in Aurora of the Colorado Water Conservation Board<\/a>, the state\u2019s top water policy agency. As warm and dry conditions continue in the West, the forecasts for the amount of water flowing through the Upper Colorado River Basin keep dropping. For officials like Garrison, it\u2019s hard not to be pessimistic: More dry and warm weather means greater concerns about hydropower generation, recreation and algal blooms<\/a> on the Western Slope.<\/p>\n And to top it off, the agreement that outlines how Upper Basin states, including Colorado, can help out in drought years expired Dec. 31, and it\u2019s not yet clear from a legal standpoint what that means for this year.<\/p>\n \u201cThings are looking exceedingly grim,\u201d Garrison said as she described this year\u2019s forecasts to the 15-person board.<\/p>\n The meeting kicked off after days of cold temperatures and snow across the Front Range. But the most recent snowstorm was not enough to recover from the worst snowpack on record<\/a> for Colorado, and the quick return to 40-degree days didn\u2019t help.<\/p>\n Colorado\u2019s mountains harbor a vital water supply that melts and runs through four major rivers and 19 downstream states each year. Garrison\u2019s concerns focused on the water that runs west into the Colorado River Basin, where it collects in an immense reservoir called Lake Powell before it\u2019s released downstream to Arizona, California, Nevada and Mexico.\u00a0<\/p>\n From November to Jan. 15, the forecasts for that flow of water into Powell, on the Utah-Arizona border, fell by almost 2 million acre-feet.\u00a0<\/p>\n One acre-foot roughly equals the annual water use of two to four households. Colorado used about 1.9 million acre-feet of Colorado River water each year, on average, between 1971 and 2024, according to federal data<\/a>.<\/p>\n And if the warm and dry conditions continue, the water level at Powell is forecast to fall to levels where turbines at Glen Canyon Dam can\u2019t generate as much (or any) electricity and where low water levels could damage the dam\u2019s infrastructure, according to the January 24-month study<\/a>, a monthly report from the Bureau of Reclamation.<\/p>\n In 2019, four Upper Basin states \u2014 Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming \u2014 formed a plan, called the Drought Response Operations Agreement, that outlined what the states could do in dry years to avoid dropping to those problematic elevations.<\/p>\n The agreement, called the DROA by the water wonks, aimed to keep Powell\u2019s elevation above 3,525 feet above sea level by either changing when Glen Canyon released water or by sending emergency releases of water down from upstream reservoirs, including Blue Mesa, a federal reservoir and the largest reservoir in Colorado<\/a>.<\/p>\n The first emergency releases from Blue Mesa<\/a> and a Wyoming reservoir, Flaming Gorge, were in 2021 and 2022, dry years when water managers worried about the massive dam\u2019s infrastructure.<\/p>\n Locally, the releases dropped reservoir levels, led to algal blooms and left some Western Slope recreation and marina businesses hanging out to dry.<\/p>\n The agreement expired Dec. 31, and water lawyers are working to clarify what that means for water management in 2026 before May when more emergency releases might be needed.\u00a0<\/p>\n It\u2019s one of several agreements that expire this year and must be replaced, including Mexico\u2019s Colorado River agreement and reservoir operation rules from 2007. Negotiations among states to replace the 2007 rules have been at an impasse for two years.<\/p>\n Technical experts like Garrison, however, are still planning for potential emergency measures.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe Upper Basin is so strongly hydrology-driven, that I think (drought) is always on our minds,\u201d Garrison said. \u201cWe always feel like we have to be planning for drought.\u201d<\/p>\n Powell\u2019s water level can vary by as much as 20 to 30 feet in a year, Garrison said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Keeping Powell\u2019s elevation above 3,525 feet preserves an important cushion above 3,490 feet, when the dam hits a crisis point.<\/p>\n At that elevation, Glen Canyon Dam\u2019s turbines can\u2019t generate any electricity<\/a> \u2014 and that would prompt electric utilities to turn to more costly, less renewable energy sources. The dam\u2019s electricity is normally pooled with other power sources to serve customers in Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Texas and Utah.<\/p>\n