I saw some interesting charts last week showing that Florida housing inventory was trending lower.<\/p>\n
It went against one of the strongest macro trends in the past two years — housing weakness. Now it’s early days but that’s a theme worth exploring as there are some beaten up assets in the housing space and a resurgence in home prices would have positive knock-ons for consumer spending.<\/p>\n
Similarly, manufacturing has struggled badly but there were some green shoots in the Chicago PMI on Friday and you have to think that Trump’s industrial policy will have some effect at some point. It’s an area that’s been left of dead with all the focus on AI but it’s still a big part of the economy and potentially a big opportunity.<\/p>\n
The US macro week kicks off today at 9:45 am ET with the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for January, following a preliminary reading of 51.9. That’s followed 15 minutes later by the ISM Manufacturing report, where consensus expectations point to 48.5, slightly above last month’s 48.3 but still below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.<\/p>\n
Later in the week:<\/p>\n
Tuesday we get JOLTS and Wednesday offers the ADP Employment report for January (consensus: 45K) and the S&P Global US Services PMI. The services sector has shown more resilience, with the prior reading at 52.5. For more see the economic calendar<\/a>.<\/p>\n Thursday morning features the weekly initial claims data for late January, with consensus estimates at 210K and 1850K respectively.<\/p>\n The week culminates Friday with the most anticipated release: January’s jobs report. Markets are expecting Non-Farm Payrolls of 50K, down from the prior month’s 65K reading. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.4%, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to show 0.3% monthly growth, matching the previous month.<\/p>\n