Part 2: Predicting This Year\u2019s Buyers, Sellers, and the Market Shapers<\/p>\n
How Teams Really Behave at the NHL Trade Deadline<\/p>\n
In Part 1 explained who runs the deadline, Part 2 is about how it actually works.<\/p>\n
Every February, the market starts to take shape. Some teams sell early. Some wait to buy late. And some quietly help deals come together without ever being the headline.<\/p>\n
The deadline isn\u2019t complete chaos. \u00a0There’s just stuff you need to filter out to get to the natural tendencies and remember the obvious answer is usually the right answer. \u00a0But also not to get caught up in logic too much because it’s impossible to imply logic to a situation you don’t understand completely. In other words, you need all the pieces to form a logic train. \u00a0The only one who has all those pieces are the general managers and coaches.<\/p>\n
Understanding all the stuff below, helps me get to 75% of where I need to get to, and also helps me call a GM with a legitimate question. \u00a0I never call a GM and say, \u201chey what’s going on or who are you trading?\u201d \u00a0I only call a GM if I have a legitimate question or if I have information that he might be interested in. \u00a0So below is what you need to know some of it is obvious of course, but we have a lot of readers here so I’m not sure who knows this or maybe who realizes this but doesn’t actually know it.<\/p>\n
The Three Roles Teams Fall Into<\/p>\n
Most teams end up in one of three categories:<\/p>\n
3) Market Shapers\/Helpers<\/p>\n
And this isn\u2019t random. It\u2019s driven by:<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Standings<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Roster age<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Organizational direction\/Finances<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0GM philosophy<\/p>\n
By mid-February, most teams already know which lane they\u2019re in \u2014 and for some smaller-market teams, revenue plays just as big a role as the standings\u2026<\/p>\n
The Financial Factor No One Talks About<\/p>\n
There\u2019s another force at work here: money. \u00a0It’s amazing to me how much this isn’t discussed, but small market teams are often on a really tight budget where their team only makes money if they make the playoffs.. there’s millions of dollars in each playoff game that they get to host at home.\u00a0<\/p>\n
I have a funny story about this. \u00a0I was talking to one of my favorite team owners and his team swept a series in four games winning the first two at home. \u00a0The fourth game went into overtime. \u00a0Later, he said to me, \u201cof course I’m thrilled with the sweep, and it means we’ll get at least two hung games in the second round, but I can’t say that part of me wasn’t hoping for a game five at home.\u201d<\/p>\n
Owners will never admit those kind of things usually\u2026I thought this was really honest, and it was partly Tongue In Cheek and partly not probably\u2026<\/p>\n
For smaller-market teams, making the playoffs isn\u2019t just about competing. It can mean:<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Extra home gates<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Ticket revenue<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Local buzz<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Sponsorship boosts<\/p>\n
So a smaller-market team sitting 4\u20136 points out in February may choose to buy and chase a berth instead of selling assets.<\/p>\n
But if they slip further back, they can flip into sellers fast.\u00a0The line between buyer and seller isn\u2019t just about standings.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s also about economics.<\/p>\n
Sellers Set the Market February still belongs to sellers.<\/p>\n
Teams outside the playoff picture move first, and that timing gives them leverage. They\u2019re not desperate yet. They can create bidding wars before buyers feel pressure.<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Expiring contracts<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Veteran depth pieces<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Chance of making the playoffs<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Willingness to retain salary<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why teams, in the last decade, teams like the Montreal Canadiens, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, and Anaheim Ducks consistently show up among the most active. \u00a0Montreal and Anaheim are starting to see years of selling pay off..<\/p>\n
Also important to remember that hey\u2019re not just moving players. \u00a0They\u2019re setting price points for the entire league.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s likely sellers as of now\u2026<\/p>\n
These teams are trending toward asset mode.<\/p>\n
Buyers Move Less\u2026.But Louder<\/p>\n
Contenders rarely make the most trades. Instead, they make the most targeted ones. \u00a0They wait. They evaluate. And then they strike late.<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Firm playoff positioning<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Specific roster needs<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Tight cap space<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Willingness to pay a premium<\/p>\n
Teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, and Vegas Golden Knights don\u2019t lead in volume. \u00a0But when they move, it matters. \u00a0They aren\u2019t trying to win February.<\/p>\n
They\u2019re trying to win Cups.<\/p>\n
Buyer\/Seller Projection (Right Now)<\/p>\n
These teams are positioned to reinforce, not rebuild.<\/p>\n
The Market Shapers\/Helpers: The Role Has Evolved<\/p>\n
For years, third teams acted as salary-retention brokers. Do to rule changes they can no longer take on parts of a salary for a player they don\u2019t keep. \u00a0They can still take on players with large contracts for a price.<\/p>\n
Now these teams shape deals by:<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Moving contracts out<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Taking contracts back<\/p>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022 \u00a0 \u00a0Helping teams clear the way for big ticket players<\/p>\n
Hard to predict who they could be year to year..<\/p>\n
So besides our likely buyers and sellers, there ar two more categories<\/p>\n
Bubble Teams (Deadline Deciders)<\/p>\n
A short hot streak makes them buyers. \u00a0A short slump makes them sellers.<\/p>\n
Special Cases (Don\u2019t Always Follow Logic)<\/p>\n
Big markets sometimes buy even when logic says sell. Pressure changes behavior.<\/p>\n
One highly successful general manager once said to me the following quote:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe distance from the playoff line determines the price of hope.\u201d<\/p>\n
Market shapers connect the deals.<\/p>\n
And money quietly influences the middle.<\/p>\n
Part 3 shifts the focus from teams to the people making the decisions: \u00a0definitely my favorite part because it’s when the human factor comes into play\u2026<\/p>\n
NHL GMs\u2019 DNA. \u00a0No two Gms are alike.<\/p>\n
So we will look at why some executives always buy, some always wait, and some always seem one move ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Part 2: Predicting This Year\u2019s Buyers, Sellers, and the Market Shapers How Teams Really Behave at the NHL…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":454435,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[51735,831,385,57292,77322,99],"class_list":["post-454434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-eklund","tag-featured","tag-nhl","tag-nhl-rumors","tag-nhl-trade-deadline","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/454434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=454434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/454434\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/454435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=454434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=454434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=454434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}