By JOSH BOAK and PAUL WISEMAN Associated Press<\/p>\n
WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 As President Donald Trump prepares to announce new tariff increases, the costs of his policies are starting to come into focus for a domestic manufacturing sector that depends on global supply chains, with a new analysis suggesting factory costs could increase by roughly 2% to 4.5%.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s going to be a cash squeeze for a lot of these firms,\u201d said Chris Bangert-Drowns, the researcher at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth who conducted the analysis. Those seemingly small changes at factories with slim profit margins, Bangert-Drowns said, \u201ccould lead to stagnation of wages, if not layoffs and closures of plants\u201d if the costs are untenable.<\/p>\n
The analysis, released Tuesday, points to the challenges Trump might face in trying to sell his tariffs to the public as a broader political and economic win and not just as evidence his negotiating style gets other nations to back down. The success of Trump\u2019s policies ultimately depends on whether everyday Americans become wealthier and factory towns experience revivals, a goal outside economists say his Republican administration is unlikely to meet with tariffs.<\/p>\n
Trump has announced new frameworks with the European Union, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Britain that would each raise the import taxes charged by the United States. He\u2019s prepared to levy tariffs against goods from dozens of other countries starting on Friday in the stated range of 15% to 50%.<\/p>\n
The U.S. stock market has shown relief the tariff rates aren\u2019t as high as Trump initially threatened in April and hope for a sense of stability going forward. Trump maintains the tariff revenues will whittle down the budget deficit and help whip up domestic factory jobs, all while playing down the risks of higher prices.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve wiped out inflation,\u201d Trump said last Friday before boarding Marine One while on his way to Scotland.<\/p>\n
But there\u2019s the possibility of backlash in the form of higher prices and slower growth once tariffs flow more fully through the world economy.<\/p>\n
A June survey by the Atlanta Federal Reserve suggested companies would on average pass half of their tariff costs onto U.S. consumers through higher prices. Labor Department data shows America lost 14,000 manufacturing jobs after Trump rolled out his April tariffs, putting a lot of pressure as to whether a rebound starts in the June employment report coming out Friday.<\/p>\n
With new tariffs in place, there are new costs for factories<\/p>\n
The Washington Center for Equitable Growth analysis shows how Trump\u2019s devotion to tariffs carries potential economic and political costs for his agenda. In the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, more than 1 in 5 jobs are in the critical sectors of manufacturing, construction, mining and oil drilling and maintenance that have high exposures to his import taxes.<\/p>\n
The artificial intelligence sector Trump last week touted as the future of the economy is dependent on imports. More than 20% of the inputs for computer and electronics manufacturing are imported, so the tariffs could ultimately magnify a hefty multitrillion-dollar price tag for building out the technology in the U.S.<\/p>\n
The White House argues American businesses will access new markets because of the trade frameworks, saying companies will ultimately benefit as a result.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe \u2018Made in USA\u2019 label is set to resume its global dominance under President Trump,\u201d White House spokesman Kush Desai said.<\/p>\n
Still lots of uncertainty, but world economy faces a new toll<\/p>\n
There are limits to the analysis. Trump\u2019s tariff rates have been a moving target, and the analysis looks only at additional costs, not how those costs will be absorbed among foreign producers, domestic manufacturers and consumers. Also, the legal basis of the tariffs as an \u201cemergency\u201d act goes before a U.S. appeals court on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview last week on Fox Business Network\u2019s \u201cKudlow\u201d show countries were essentially accepting the tariffs to maintain access to the U.S. market. \u201cEveryone is willing to pay a toll,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
But what Bessent didn\u2019t say is U.S. manufacturers are also paying much of that toll.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re getting squeezed from all sides,\u2019\u2019 said Justin Johnson, president of Jordan Manufacturing Co. in Belding, Michigan, northeast of Grand Rapids. His grandfather founded the company in 1949.<\/p>\n
The company, which makes parts used by Amazon warehouses, auto companies and aerospace firms, has seen the price of a key raw material \u2014 steel coil \u2014 rise 5% to 10% this year.<\/p>\n
Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Jordan Manufacturing doesn\u2019t buy foreign steel. But by crippling foreign competition, Trump\u2019s tariffs have allowed domestic U.S. steelmakers to hike prices.<\/p>\n
Johnson doesn\u2019t blame them. \u201cThere\u2019s no red-blooded capitalist who isn\u2019t going to raise his prices\u2019\u2019 under those circumstances, he said.<\/p>\n
Trump says no inflation from tariffs, but businesses see higher prices<\/p>\n
The Trump White House insists inflation is not surfacing in the economy, issuing a report through the Council of Economic Advisers this month saying the price of imported goods fell between December of last year and this past May. \u201cThese findings contradict claims that tariffs or tariff-fears would lead to an acceleration of inflation,\u201d the report concludes.<\/p>\n
Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale University, said that the more accurate measure would be to compare the trends in import prices with themselves in the past and that the CEA\u2019s own numbers show \u201cimport prices have accelerated in recent months.\u201d<\/p>\n
The latest estimate from the Budget Lab at Yale is the tariffs would cause the average household to have $2,400 less than it would otherwise have.<\/p>\n
Keeping the economy on a knife\u2019s edge<\/p>\n
Josh Smith, founder and president of Montana Knife Co., called himself a Trump voter but said he sees the tariffs on foreign steel and other goods as threatening his business.<\/p>\n
For instance, Smith just ordered a $515,000 machine from Germany that grinds his knife blades to a sharp edge. Trump had imposed a 10% tax on products from the EU that is set to rise to 15% under the trade framework he announced Sunday. So Trump\u2019s tax on the machine comes to $77,250 \u2014 about enough for Smith to hire an entry-level worker.<\/p>\n
Smith would happily buy the bevel-grinding machines from an American supplier. But there aren\u2019t any. \u201cThere\u2019s only two companies in the world that make them, and they\u2019re both in Germany,\u2019\u2019 Smith said.<\/p>\n
Then there\u2019s imported steel, which Trump is taxing at 50%. Until this year, Montana Knife bought the powdered steel it needs from Crucible Industries in Syracuse, New York. But Crucible declared bankruptcy last December, and its assets were purchased by a Swedish firm, Erasteel, which moved production to Sweden.<\/p>\n
Smith beat the tariffs by buying a year\u2019s worth of the steel in advance. But starting in 2026, the specialty steel he\u2019ll be importing from Sweden is set to be hit with a 50% duty.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe average American is not sitting in the position I am, looking at the numbers I am and making the decisions each day, like, \u2018Hey, we cannot hire those extra few people because we might have to pay this tariff on this steel or this tariff on this grinder,\u2019\u2019’ he said. \u201cI want to buy more equipment and hire more people. That\u2019s what I want to do.\u201d<\/p>\n
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