{"id":46333,"date":"2025-07-30T00:50:14","date_gmt":"2025-07-30T00:50:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/46333\/"},"modified":"2025-07-30T00:50:14","modified_gmt":"2025-07-30T00:50:14","slug":"nhls-10-best-contracts-2025-edition-jack-hughes-brandon-hagel-and-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/46333\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL\u2019s 10 best contracts, 2025 edition: Jack Hughes, Brandon Hagel and more"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the NHL, contracts matter. For better or worse, every player is judged based on the money he makes and whether he\u2019s worth the price.<\/p>\n

This piece is about the players who are well worth the money \u2014 the best deals in the league. It\u2019s when you ask yourself, \u201cHow is this guy making that much?\u201d but in a good way.<\/p>\n

There are a number of team-friendly deals out there. According to each player\u2019s projected value over the remainder of their deals, these are the league\u2019s 10 best contracts.<\/p>\n

The goal here is to grade contracts empirically with the same context being applied to each player across the league: how much value does each player bring to the table per year and over the life of the contract? The way it\u2019s measured involves comparing a player\u2019s Net Rating and the\u00a0expected salary associated<\/a>\u00a0with it to a player\u2019s current contract<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What players have already done holds no merit; this is about the future value of the deal with age effects<\/a> based on player comps taken into account while accounting for expected salary growth. Contract clauses and bonus structure are important, but not considered with this assessment. Players on LTIR were not considered.<\/p>\n

1. Jack Hughes<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Contract: $8M x five years
Surplus Value: $38M
Positive Value Probability: 99.9 percent<\/p>\n

The best contract in hockey belongs to Jack Hughes. As the cap continues to climb, Hughes\u2019 modest $8 million cap hit continues to look more audacious each season. And there\u2019s still five years remaining on it.<\/p>\n

For roughly the price of one Elias Lindholm, the Devils get a franchise center, a borderline MVP threat and one of the league\u2019s most impactful players. Going into next season, only seven players are projected to provide a bigger game-to-game impact than Hughes. Over the life of his deal, Hughes has a very real chance of becoming a top-five player in the sport.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a big step up from what\u2019s expected of an $8 million forward, which is to provide low-end, first-line value. The difference between what Hughes is and what his contract demands is massive, the largest in the league. It\u2019s what informs the chances of Hughes living up to his deal, a laughably high 99.9 percent. This deal is as good as it gets.<\/p>\n

2. Brandon Hagel<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Contract: $6.5M x seven years
Surplus Value: $43.0M
Positive Value Probability: 98 percent<\/p>\n

When Brandon Hagel signed an eight-year extension in the summer of 2023, he was coming off a breakthrough 64-point season \u2014 an impressive feat given his lack of time on the top power play. Combine that with his ability to drive play and Hagel was starting to look like a core piece for the Lightning as a potential top-line threat. The max-term deal was a no-brainer, and while there was some sticker shock for some, the $6.5 million cap hit looked like one that would age pretty well (his market value at the time was around $7 million).<\/p>\n

Today, the only shock is what Hagel has become: one of the best wingers in hockey. Hagel\u2019s rise since signing has been meteoric, culminating in a spot on Team Canada amidst a season where he scored 35 goals and 90 points while finishing top 10 in Selke voting. Hagel has become a star, doing most of his damage at five-on-five, where only two players scored more points than him last season: David Pastrnak and Nikita Kucherov. He\u2019s the real deal.<\/p>\n

Naturally, that kind of production and defensive utility is going to be worth a lot of money, enough to nearly double Hagel\u2019s cap hit, given his age and the rising cap climate. It may still be a shock at how valuable Hagel has become, but there\u2019s no denying he\u2019s become an eight-figure player after last season. With seven years left on his deal, Hagel has one of the absolute best contracts in hockey.<\/p>\n

3. Seth Jarvis<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Contract: $7.4M x seven years
Surplus Value: $38M
Positive Value Probability: 99.7 percent<\/p>\n

When Seth Jarvis signed last summer, the deal already looked like an immediate steal. After a breakthrough season, Jarvis already looked like a player who would be worth well over $10 million per season during the life of his deal. That the Hurricanes were able to get him for max term at a paltry $7.4 million felt like a massive win.<\/p>\n

We saw that play out last season when Jarvis proved his status as a future franchise star. He upped his point pace from 67 to 75, continued to shine defensively and made Team Canada as a result. Jarvis had arrived, and at 23, there\u2019s still more room for him to grow, too. He has a real chance to win a Selke Trophy when all is said and done, an incredibly rare feat for a winger.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That defensive ability is what really sets Jarvis apart, allowing the Hurricanes to gain more surplus value over a similar scoring forward. Points are usually what pay the bills, and if Jarvis were only average defensively, his value would be closer to his cap hit. That he\u2019s already one of the game\u2019s best defensive forwards is what puts his contract over the top. His game carries a lot of substance.<\/p>\n

4. Sam Reinhart<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Contract: $8.6M x seven years
Surplus Value: $37M
Positive Value Probability: 96 percent<\/p>\n

Of all of Florida\u2019s deals that make non-Panthers fans scream \u201ccome on\u201d in unison and blame state taxes<\/a>, this one remains the most infuriating. For Panthers fans, it\u2019s yet another substantial win.<\/p>\n

Fresh off a year where Reinhart scored 57 goals and finished fourth in Selke voting, the Panthers seemingly got to pretend that season never happened during contract negotiations. Reinhart\u2019s $8.6 million cap hit makes a lot more sense based on what he was after his 2023-24 season, and not based on the seismic leap he took in 2024-25.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Was regression likely? Yes. But not to the degree that Reinhart ended up making $3 million less than his contemporaries such as William Nylander and Elias Pettersson. If that was the market for a 90-point forward, Florida went way under it. Those savings probably afforded the Panthers the ability to trade for Brad Marchand \u2014 and the rest is history.<\/p>\n

What adds further salt to the wound is that Reinhart is not only cheaper than Nylander and Pettersson but also probably better. That\u2019s because of his defensive game, which has finally received the respect it deserves over the last two years. While Reinhart\u2019s production did predictably regress last season, his defensive game took another step \u2014 enough to finish second in Selke voting behind teammate Aleksander Barkov.<\/p>\n

Over the last two seasons, Reinhart has cemented himself as one of the league\u2019s best players. For the next seven years, he\u2019ll be an absolute steal.<\/p>\n

5. Nathan MacKinnon<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Contract: $12.6M x six years
Surplus Value: $34M
Positive Value Probability: 99.5 percent<\/p>\n

Nathan MacKinnon is a top-three player in hockey. Some people might have him second, some might have him third and some might even have him first. But it\u2019s unlikely you\u2019ll find someone who has him outside that range. MacKinnon is one of the best players alive, and for the next six years, he won\u2019t be paid like it \u2014 not to the degree he should anyway. As was the case during his first contract, MacKinnon is once again massively underpaid.<\/p>\n

That was the case when MacKinnon signed his deal for just $100,000 more than Connor McDavid\u2019s league-leading AAV \u2014 just not to this degree. Two things have changed since then. The first is that MacKinnon, somehow, took another step. And the second is that the cap is set to explode to a point where $12.6 million is a modest sum for a player of MacKinnon\u2019s ilk. In the 2025-26 season, it already represents just 13.2 percent of the cap. By Year 6, it could be less than 10 percent. You don\u2019t need me to tell you MacKinnon is worth a much higher percentage of the cap.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the percentage of cap calculation and the length of the deal that gets MacKinnon\u2019s market value to the exorbitant figure you see above: $18.3 million. That\u2019s obviously going to feel high under a $95.5 million salary cap, but it won\u2019t be when the salary cap starts hitting $115 million or $125 million, where it\u2019s closer to 15 percent of the cap.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If that still feels high, just think of the two big deals that were just signed for Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner: both at a fair $12 million. Two superstars, yes, but not anywhere near MacKinnon\u2019s level. They\u2019re top-20 players \u2014 MacKinnon is top three.<\/p>\n

How big is that difference and how many more millions is that worth? About $6 million by my estimate, giving MacKinnon one of the best deals in the sport.<\/p>\n

6. Leon Draisaitl<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Contract: $14M x eight years
Surplus Value: $35M
Positive Value Probability: 95 percent<\/p>\n

Everything said about MacKinnon above also applies to Leon Draisaitl here. The difference is that Draisaitl\u2019s deal is richer and longer. That means less value per season, but a similar amount of total value thanks to those two extra years.<\/p>\n

While Draisaitl has the league\u2019s richest contract, the last year has made all the difference with regard to its perception. What looked like a fair deal when it was signed now looks like a steal thanks to Draisaitl\u2019s personal leap in performance timed with the rising cap environment.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On the Draisaitl front, he was the league\u2019s best skater last year as a result of a much-improved defensive game. While Draisaitl\u2019s defensive play had already grown relative to his early days, last season\u2019s jump put him on the fringes of Selke discussions. He reached a new level that put him in the conversation among the league\u2019s best 200-foot players \u2014 and it didn\u2019t come with any offensive sacrifice either. Draisaitl looked like a whole new player, one whose projected value rose by four goals.<\/p>\n

The bigger news was the rising cap. While it was always assumed that the cap had a lot of room to catch up with hockey-related revenues, it was difficult to expect the seismic leaps that were confirmed over the next three seasons. That put Draisaitl\u2019s $14 million in a new context, one where the expected Net Rating from the deal starts at his level in Year 1, but drops substantially to first-line level by the end of it.<\/p>\n

Combine those two things, and the Oilers once again get Draisaitl on an eight-year deal for a lot less than he\u2019s worth.<\/p>\n

7. Dylan Guenther<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Contract: $7.1M x eight years
Surplus Value: $33M
Positive Value Probability: 88 percent<\/p>\n

The Utah Mammoth were wise to extend Dylan Guenther one year early, locking him up for his entire prime at a bargain rate. What may have seemed pricey after just 78 career games was a savvy move for a rising star, especially before the news that the cap would skyrocket. Now, the Mammoth hold one of the best contracts in hockey: a player with point-per-game upside at just $7.1 million for the next eight years.\u00a0<\/p>\n

What looked like a potential steal at the time was only confirmed last season after Guenther scored at a 70-point pace in his first full NHL season. He looks like a future star, which only makes this deal look better with each passing year. While $7.1 million is fringe first-line money now, it\u2019ll be closer to average top-six money over the life of Guenther\u2019s deal. There\u2019s a very good chance that Guenther is a lot better than that during his prime.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At his age, there\u2019s also a chance that he ends up even better than projected. Guenther is on track for stardom, but there\u2019s upside beyond that if everything goes right. If he can add another level to his game, Guenther has a shot to not only be on this list for years to come, but to be near the top of it.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see what his second full season holds, but right now it looks like Utah got a spectacular deal.<\/p>\n

8. Lucas Raymond<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Contract: $8.1M x seven years
Surplus Value: $31M
Positive Value Probability: 92 percent<\/p>\n

Lucas Raymond has reached another level. That was clear to close out the 2023-24 season and confirmed the following year with a near point-per-game season. Raymond is the real deal and the Red Wings are about to benefit greatly from it.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s because of his $8.1 million cap hit, an amount that will equate to a high-end second-line player during the remainder of Raymond\u2019s deal. It\u2019s a mark he looks likely to blow past. Raymond is already a bona fide top-line talent and looks likely to ascend to stardom as he enters his prime. He\u2019s on track to become a franchise winger, a legit star-level threat and his current price tag is a pittance for the kind of value he should bring.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Raymond\u2019s deal looked like a win last year before he truly established his current level. Now, it\u2019s a slam dunk. The fruits of Detroit\u2019s rebuild are finally coming together.<\/p>\n

9. Matt Boldy<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Contract: $7M x five years
Surplus Value: $27M
Positive Value Probability: 97 percent<\/p>\n

To understand Matt Boldy\u2019s value, it might be best to list some of his best comparables at the same age: Mark Stone, Sam Reinhart, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk. Superstars \u2014 and Boldy looks like he could end up on the same track.<\/p>\n

Getting to that point means taking another step beyond the 75-point pace he\u2019s enjoyed the last two seasons. Maybe that will come. Maybe it won\u2019t. Even if he stays at his current level for the foreseeable future, though, Boldy is still a tremendously valuable player, one with underrated two-way ability (hence the Stone and Reinhart comps). That\u2019s worth a lot, especially over the next five years, which will take up his entire prime.<\/p>\n

From this point forward, Boldy will essentially be paid second-line money at $7 million. He\u2019s already several leagues above that and only getting better. If he can turn into an 85-95 point player, this deal will be an even larger steal than it already is.<\/p>\n

10. Tim St\u00fctzle<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Contract: $8.4M x six years
Surplus Value: $26M
Positive Value Probability: 94 percent<\/p>\n

Last but not least is another young star signed long-term who looks primed for superstardom. Tim St\u00fctzle flirted with that level in 2022-23 after a 90-point season, but was still fine-tuning his defensive game. Last season, he took a major step forward in that regard and looks set to reach another level as a result.<\/p>\n

It remains to be seen just how high St\u00fctzle can climb, but the upside is obvious now that he\u2019s showcased a larger capacity to be a 200-foot player while still being an offensive force. St\u00fctzle is on a star trajectory, but could reach even higher with an unexpected leap.<\/p>\n

Either way, his play is already well above what\u2019s expected of his $8.4 million cap hit. With six years left on his deal, the gap between what St\u00fctzle does and what he\u2019s paid for will only widen further.<\/p>\n

Honorable Mentions: Josh Morrissey, Jake Sanderson, Mikey Anderson, Aleksander Barkov, Shea Theodore<\/p>\n

(Top photo of Jack Hughes: Luke Hales \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In the NHL, contracts matter. For better or worse, every player is judged based on the money he…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":46334,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[385,99,1794],"class_list":{"0":"post-46333","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl","8":"tag-nhl","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-sports-business"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46333","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46333"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46333\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46333"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46333"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46333"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}