The Super Bowl, sadly, was a snoozer. But the past week of college hoops has been anything but.<\/p>\n
You had St. John\u2019s upsetting UConn<\/a> to close the gap in the Big East. UNC beating Duke in the first rivalry meeting,<\/a>\u00a0only to turn around and lose days later at unranked Miami. Illinois fell \u2014 twice \u2014 to Michigan State and Wisconsin, to widen Michigan\u2019s path to the Big Ten title. Arizona, finally, dropped its first game all season<\/a>, to Darryn Peterson-less Kansas.<\/p>\n And that\u2019s without mentioning Houston over BYU, Kentucky over Tennessee, Purdue over Nebraska<\/a> and so on. \u2026 You get the point.<\/p>\n As for how to make sense of that flood of results? Well, let\u2019s try to tier the best teams by contender status, among this week\u2019s 10 thoughts.<\/p>\n 1. Let\u2019s start at the Tier 1 summit, with the favorites: Arizona and Michigan<\/a>.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve been 1 and 2, in some order, almost all season, yo-yoing for the top spot at KenPom and Bart Torvik. Arizona has one more Quad-1 win than Michigan (nine to eight) and the \u201cbetter\u201d loss at Kansas, which is a Q1 defeat, compared to Michigan\u2019s Q2 home loss to Wisconsin. But Michigan, narrowly, has the better season-long adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings: fifth and first, respectively, compared with seventh and second for the Wildcats.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a coin flip, honestly. If you really pressed me, I narrowly lean \u2026 Arizona? Just because I trust Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley a little more than Michigan\u2019s backcourt? But either of these teams making it to Indianapolis wouldn\u2019t surprise in the least.<\/p>\n Kind of reminds me of 2024, when UConn and Purdue were the two best teams all season, and we were lucky enough to see \u2019em face off for the national championship.<\/p>\n 2. Tier 2 isn\u2019t quite as ironclad as the top group, but nobody will think twice if any of UConn, Duke, Houston or Illinois cuts down the nets in April.<\/p>\n Before Friday\u2019s 81-72 loss to the Johnnies at Madison Square Garden, it appeared UConn had turned a corner offensively<\/a>, looking more like the Death Star version of itself from \u201923 and \u201924. But what do I know? Because instead, the Huskies had 15 turnovers, seven missed free throws and posted their second-lowest offensive rebounding rate all season against St. John\u2019s. Put together, that resulted in UConn\u2019s second-least efficient offensive performance in 24 games. That said, one loss on the road, to a ranked Rick Pitino-coached rival, does nothing to scare me off Dan Hurley\u2019s team, which still has one of the best defenses in the sport. Plus, come NCAA Tournament time, Hurley\u2019s teams always turn it up offensively.<\/p>\n Likewise, Duke led for 39 minutes and 59 seconds on the road against its archrival before Seth Trimble delivered a shot for the ages<\/a>. Both of Duke\u2019s losses this season have come down to the final possession, in games the Blue Devils led by double digits, against top-15 teams. Maybe it\u2019s not great that Jon Scheyer\u2019s squad allowed UNC\u2019s three best statistical shooters \u2014 Trimble, Derek Dixon and Henri Veesaar \u2014 to all hoist 3s in the final two minutes, but Duke still had the ball and a chance to win with 20 seconds left. And for anyone criticizing Scheyer\u2019s late-game tactics, including last season, need I remind you how the Florida game ended in December<\/a> in Durham?<\/p>\n Houston, meanwhile, has one loss since Thanksgiving \u2014 at Texas Tech, by 4 \u2014 and is tied atop the Big 12 with Arizona. (Circle that Feb. 21 meeting between the Coogs and Wildcats, which should decide who wins America\u2019s toughest conference.)<\/p>\n As for Illinois\u2026<\/p>\n 3. Yeah, the Illini need senior guard Kylan Boswell, who suffered a broken hand in January, back, and soon. Especially defensively, after consecutive backcourts went bonkers to deal Brad Underwood\u2019s team a pair of pivotal Big Ten losses. First, Jeremy Fears Jr. became the first Division-I player in the past 25 seasons to drop at least 25 points and 15 assists against a ranked team, almost single-handedly carrying Michigan State to an 85-82 overtime win. (And, just as importantly, Fears did so without any extracurricular activity. Maybe Tom Izzo\u2019s \u201ccome to Jesus\u201d talk<\/a> worked, after all.)<\/p>\n Tuesday night was more of the same, as Wisconsin\u2019s dynamic duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell combined for 49 points and nine assists, with only one turnover. (Not that Andrej Stojakovic is an amazing defender, but his being a late scratch meant one less perimeter body to throw at the Badgers backcourt, too.) Illinois\u2019 offense is still elite enough \u2014 and its size overwhelming enough defensively \u2014 that it takes a team\u2019s best to beat the Illini, which is why they\u2019re included here. But admittedly, without Boswell\u2019s physicality on D, it\u2019s been a little easier for opposing guards to boost their GPA.<\/p>\n 4. Tier 3 encompasses two groups of teams: those that started hot but have shown some cracks, and those that started slow but are now rolling downhill. Not hard to figure out which is which among Florida, Michigan State, Iowa State, Kansas and Nebraska.<\/p>\n Florida has won eight of its last nine, while grading out as the nation\u2019s best team over that stretch, per Bart Torvik. UF is now the favorite to win the SEC by multiple games, according to KenPom\u2019s projections, and it gets its biggest conference challenger, Arkansas, at home on Feb. 28. But the Gators are listed here because they did still drop three of their biggest nonconference games, albeit all to top-eight KenPom teams in Arizona, Duke and UConn. And secondly, because Todd Golden\u2019s backcourt still isn\u2019t shooting the ball well \u2014 and nobody\u2019s expecting it to at this point.<\/p>\n As for Michigan State and Iowa State, the latter of which fell Tuesday at TCU, both have elite defenses and just enough question marks offensively that it\u2019s tough to totally trust them. Sparty has also dealt with recent injury woes. Of the two, I\u2019ll take Iowa State\u2019s upside, but my confidence in the Cyclones has admittedly dropped a bit since their outstanding 16-0 start.<\/p>\n 5. But let\u2019s talk about Kansas. I\u2019m done diving into the Darryn Peterson waters<\/a>, but are we sure the Jayhawks aren\u2019t Final Four-good even without him?<\/p>\n This isn\u2019t just about the win against Arizona, either, although that proved definitively that KU can hang with anyone. But Kansas has now won eight straight, with a top-10 defense that keeps getting better, emboldened by role players who refuse to stay role players (complementary), with a two-time championship-winning coach who\u2019s showing as much emotion as he has in years<\/a>.<\/p>\n One stretch in particular really sold me Monday: The seven second-half minutes in which KU held Arizona to one basket on 11 shots, grinding together a 12-2 run that took the Jayhawks from down 3 to up 6. No team in the country has shut Zona out like that all season.<\/p>\n And that didn\u2019t even include Flory Bidunga\u2019s thunderous (and effectively, game-sealing) block:<\/p>\n Block city https:\/\/t.co\/zdcFPxEn2c<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/kJ6pMQCZpf<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Kansas Men\u2019s Basketball (@KUHoops) February 10, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Bidunga and Melvin Council Jr., who has quickly become a KU cult hero, combined for 32 of Kansas\u2019 40 second-half points, looking like more-than-capable anchors of a team that can make a run this March.<\/p>\n Peterson has people nervous, but I\u2019ll take all the Kansas stock, please.<\/p>\n 6. And quickly, on Nebraska: No, three losses in four games \u2014 all by single digits, to top-10 KenPom teams \u2014 is no reason to panic.<\/p>\n In fact, it looked like Fred Hoiberg\u2019s team was going to complete an all-time comeback Tuesday against Purdue, after trailing by 22 early in the second half. Rienk Mast missed a free throw in the final seconds of regulation that would\u2019ve sealed the deal, and then this happened on what should\u2019ve been the final possession of overtime:<\/p>\n With four seconds left in OT, Jamarques Lawrence slips bringing the ball up the court. pic.twitter.com\/7jLcVjwABc<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 11, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n No telling if Nebraska actually scores there or not, but what a blah ending to a spectacular game. The Huskers are fine, though, and still just as well-positioned as they were two weeks ago to win their first NCAA Tournament game(s).<\/p>\n 7. Tier 4, made up of Purdue, Texas Tech, Gonzaga and North Carolina, is a little messy. Teams with some glaring vulnerabilities, but also some great wins.<\/p>\n Purdue\u2019s 2-point defense is still petrifying, but it did just pick up its first win over a ranked Big Ten team after losing three straight in late January. Texas Tech beat Duke and Houston \u2014 but has almost no depth, and regularly gets exposed defensively. Gonzaga\u2019s only here if the Zags are healthy, which they haven\u2019t been for weeks without Braden Huff, and which they may or may not be for the rest of this season.<\/p>\n And North Carolina has now beaten all of Kansas, Kentucky and Duke for the first time since 1981-82, but also has four losses to unranked teams in league play, including Tuesday\u2019s letdown after the emotional high of beating the Blue Devils.<\/p>\n 8. Of the four, I\u2019m probably least confident in Purdue, but Tuesday showed the Boilermakers haven\u2019t totally fallen apart. Plus, as a hoops fan, I\u2019m immensely curious how close Braden Smith can get to Bobby Hurley\u2019s all-time NCAA assists record \u2014 or if he can actually topple it.<\/p>\n Smith is 109 dimes away from breaking Hurley\u2019s record of 1,076 with at least nine games left: seven in the regular season, plus one apiece in the Big Ten and NCAA Tournament. That would require an aggressive pace of 12.1 per game, though, to pass Hurley. However, if the Boilermakers win at least one Big Ten tournament game and then make the Sweet 16? That gives Smith 12 games, and drops the per-game pace to a more-manageable 9.1 \u2014 or just above his average of 8.8 per game.<\/p>\n All of which is to say, it sure seems like Smith\u2019s record pursuit will go only as far as Purdue does.<\/p>\n 9. Four more teams piqued my interest, but I couldn\u2019t picture them winning four straight postseason games, for one reason or another.<\/p>\n BYU has one of the five best players in college basketball in AJ Dybantsa, but can\u2019t stop gifting teams double-digit, first-half cushions. And until it actually beats one of the sport\u2019s elite teams, we\u2019re past the point of trusting potential. St. John\u2019s, meanwhile, has won 10 straight and is one of the sport\u2019s hottest teams, but even with Dillon Mitchell and Dylan Darling tag-teaming as lead ballhandlers, I don\u2019t fully trust the offense.<\/p>\n Vanderbilt was a personal favorite<\/a> earlier this year, and I still like the Commodores. But between a glaring lack of frontcourt size and pesky injury issues, this increasingly feels like a team with a Sweet 16 ceiling.<\/p>\n And lastly, Arkansas, with freshman point guard Darius Acuff Jr., one of the more slept-on rookies<\/a> in the country. But the Razorbacks\u2019 best wins \u2014 over Tennessee and Vandy \u2014 haven\u2019t aged super well, and despite being in the SEC mix, John Calipari\u2019s team no-shows too often for my liking.<\/p>\n 10. Finally, a team that isn\u2019t a true contender, but is still fascinating: Wisconsin.<\/p>\n Over the Badgers\u2019 past 10 games \u2014 a stretch that includes two of the best wins any team has all season, at Michigan and at Illinois \u2014 Greg Gard\u2019s team is fourth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. But rather than just flippantly saying those are \u201cbig\u201d wins, I love using Bart Torvik\u2019s \u201cWins Above Bubble\u201d (WAB) stat: the same one the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses when assessing bubble teams.<\/p>\n Both wins over Michigan and Illinois register as worth at least +0.9 WAB. For reference, when I compared the most valuable nonconference wins<\/a> earlier this season, the high-water mark was Arizona\u2019s win at UConn, which was worth +0.89 WAB.<\/p>\n Which is to say, those two Badgers victories aren\u2019t just among the best wins this season. They might very well be the best.<\/p>\n Wisconsin is too inconsistent and porous defensively to be considered a real Final Four threat, but nobody is gonna want to see the Badgers across from them in the first weekend.<\/p>\n