Portland\u2019s persistent job losses, stagnant population and anemic housing construction have collectively tipped the city into a recession, economist Mike Wilkerson said Thursday, warning that conditions are deteriorating rather than improving.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe conditions here are unlike what we see in any other metro\u201d area, Wilkerson said at the Portland Metro Chamber\u2019s annual State of the Economy breakfast. He said the region\u2019s decline is broad-based and foundational. <\/p>\n
\u201cUnfortunately, it\u2019s not one sector. It\u2019s all of the sectors,\u201d said, Wilkerson, of the Portland research firm ECONorthwest. The chamber commissioned Thursday\u2019s report. <\/p>\n
Multnomah County has lost 6,000 jobs in the last year and 33,000 since the pandemic, he said, with construction, manufacturing, professional services and other sectors all falling off.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are in a recession,\u201d Wilkerson said. He ticked off a litany of economic headwinds including: Real estate investors\u2019 disdain for Portland<\/a>, residents\u2019 growing pessimism about their financial prospects<\/a>, a paucity of new housing construction<\/a>, some of the nation\u2019s highest personal income taxes, and a global trade war that is felt acutely in Oregon, a trade-dependent state.<\/p>\n To thrive, he said the region must find a way to attract businesses and residents, boost incomes while making housing more affordable, and reform its tax system so it\u2019s less reliant on taxes on the personal income tax.<\/p>\n \u201cUnless we\u2019re willing to do things differently,\u201d Wilkerson said, \u201cwe should expect the same outcomes.\u201d<\/p>\n There\u2019s no doubt that Portland\u2019s economy is at a low ebb, but there\u2019s no consensus about the depth or nature of its issues. And economists have no standard definition for what constitutes a recession at a regional level. <\/p>\n Multnomah County\u2019s unemployment rate was 5.0% in December, up a full point from the end of 2024. That\u2019s not high by historical standards, though. The county\u2019s jobless rate has averaged 5.9% this century.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n At their quarterly revenue forecast last week in Salem, state economists predicted steady job and income growth for the next two years. The forecast covered the statewide economy \u2014 not just Portland \u2014 but the metro area accounts for the bulk of Oregon\u2019s economic activity. <\/p>\n While continuing unemployment claims are elevated, state economist Carl Riccadonna told a legislative committee that they \u201clook nothing like an economic recession.\u201d <\/p>\n Statewide economic output climbed last summer, according to the latest federal data, outpacing national growth, Riccadonna said. And recent stabilization of the state\u2019s unemployment rate suggests the region\u2019s economy may have already hit bottom.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s potentially a narrative of a rebound happening,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Portland\u2019s persistent job losses, stagnant population and anemic housing construction have collectively tipped the city into a recession,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":466013,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,216884,101,177842,18223,216885],"class_list":{"0":"post-466012","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-downtown-portland","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-fog","12":"tag-portland","13":"tag-portland-skyline"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/466012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=466012"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/466012\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/466013"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=466012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=466012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=466012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}