Among the verdant gardens of Havana\u2019s diplomatic quarter, Siboney, ambassadors from countries traditionally allied to the United States are expressing increasing frustration with Washington\u2019s attempt to unseat Cuba\u2019s government, while simultaneously drawing up plans to draw down their missions.<\/p>\n
Cuba is in crisis. Already reeling from a four-year economic slump, worsened by hyper-inflation and the migration of nearly 20% of the population, the 67-year-old communist government is at its weakest. After Washington\u2019s successful military operation against Cuba\u2019s ally Venezuela at the beginning of January, the US administration is actively seeking regime change.<\/p>\n
The Guardian spoke to more than five top-level officials from different countries, and heard complaints that the US charge d\u2019affaires, Mike Hammer, has failed to share any sort of detailed plan beyond bringing the island to a standstill by starving it of oil. One said: \u201cThere\u2019s talk of human rights, and that this is the year Cuba changes \u2013 but little talk of what happens afterwards.\u201d<\/p>\n
Some hope that rumoured high-level discussions in Mexico between the Cuban government \u2013 in the form of Gen Alejandro Castro Esp\u00edn, son of Cuba\u2019s 94-year-old former president Ra\u00fal Castro \u2013 and US officials might produce a deal, but as yet there are no signs of progress.<\/p>\n
Instead, diplomats in Havana are preparing for an alternative tactic: the country being starved until people take to the streets and the US can step in. \u201cWe\u2019re trying to keep a cool head,\u201d said one ambassador. \u201cEmbassies are built on planning for the unexpected \u2013 hopefully before it becomes expected,\u201d said another.<\/p>\n
Stoking concerns is news that lack of fuel is hampering the UN World Food Programme\u2019s efforts to relieve suffering from last year\u2019s Hurricane Melissa<\/a>. The organisation, which keeps a low-key presence on the island, is now having to draw up plans for a new, far larger crisis. \u201cWe\u2019re already seeing the impact in the availability of fresh produce in the cities,\u201d said \u00c9tienne Labande, the WFP\u2019s country director.<\/p>\n Diplomats expressed concern at how fast the lack of fuel \u2013 for electricity, water and the transport of food \u2013 could cause extreme suffering. \u201cIt\u2019s a matter of weeks,\u201d said one. \u201cThe view is that people in rural villages like Vi\u00f1ales may be OK, but those in the cities would be at terrible risk.\u201d<\/p>\n The lack of fuel means fewer cars on the roads and frequent power shortages. This barber uses hair clippers powered by a rechargeable battery. Photograph: Jason P Howe<\/p>\n Cuba\u2019s latest crisis follows an executive order signed by Donald Trump in January imposing tariffs<\/a> on any country supplying Cuba with oil. Despite outrage from Cuba\u2019s traditional allies China and Russia, the threat has proved effective.<\/p>\n Even Mexico, which last year supplanted Venezuela as the island\u2019s largest supplier, has ceased sending tankers, although its president, Claudia Sheinbaum, warned of a humanitarian disaster<\/a> on the island and sent 800 tons of aid. \u201cNo one can ignore the situation that the Cuban people are currently experiencing because of the sanctions that the United States is imposing in a very unfair manner,\u201d she said on Tuesday.<\/p>\n At a party at the US residence on 28 January, Hammer referred to the 68-year US embargo on the island, telling guests: \u201cThe Cubans have complained for years about \u2018the blockade\u2019, but now there is going to be a real blockade.\u201d<\/p>\n He began a tour of eastern Cuba shortly afterwards, distributing US aid, during which small groups of government-backed protesters met him with abuse. He is now believed to be heading to Rome for discussions with the Vatican, increasingly a force on the island.<\/p>\n A spokeswoman for the embassy said they regularly meet with diplomatic colleagues, but \u201cWe of course do not discuss the details of our meetings.\u201d<\/p>\n