{"id":470205,"date":"2026-02-15T13:59:12","date_gmt":"2026-02-15T13:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/470205\/"},"modified":"2026-02-15T13:59:12","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T13:59:12","slug":"as-alberta-separatists-court-the-u-s-prosperity-is-fuelling-a-sovereigntist-turn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/470205\/","title":{"rendered":"As Alberta separatists court the U.S., prosperity is fuelling a sovereigntist turn"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the past year, leaders of Alberta\u2019s main separatist organization have travelled repeatedly to Washington, D.C.<\/a>, for quiet meetings with senior American government officials in the Treasury and State departments. They\u2019ve reportedly discussed everything from adopting the American dollar to building an independent Alberta military. <\/p>\n

These highly unusual interactions \u2014 which prompted Canada to warn the Donald Trump administration to respect Canadian sovereignty<\/a> \u2014 are unfolding just as a new Angus Reid poll<\/a> shows 29 per cent of Albertans would vote, or are inclined to vote, for separation if a referendum were held today. <\/p>\n

This is a clear minority, but it\u2019s also an indication of some discontentment. The more interesting question is why a province that has long been among Canada\u2019s richest feels so hard done by that some are willing to contemplate breaking up the country.<\/p>\n

Read more:
\n What if Alberta really did vote to separate?<\/a><\/p>\n

Alberta defies the usual template<\/p>\n

Andr\u00e9s Rodr\u00edguez\u2011Pose, a professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics, argues that<\/a> populist eruptions are rooted in regions suffering persistent economic decline, demographic loss and a pervasive sense that they have been \u201cleft behind\u201d in a globalized economy.<\/p>\n

In Europe and the United States, voters in deindustrialized regions have used the ballot box to punish political leaders for abandoning them. The core grievance is material and territorial: my region is poorer, ignored and slipping further behind.<\/p>\n

Alberta does not fit that template. <\/p>\n

Its economy has grown faster<\/a> than any other province since 1950, and it still sits near the top of Canada\u2019s income and employment league tables, even after oil price shocks. <\/p>\n

In fact, a central anomaly of Canadian federalism is that Alberta\u2019s economic heft<\/a> far exceeds its population and representation in Ottawa, feeding a sense of under\u2011recognized importance rather than marginality. <\/p>\n

Alberta is not a place that \u201cdoesn\u2019t matter\u201d economically; the anger of those who want to separate stems from believing it matters a great deal and is nonetheless disrespected.<\/p>\n

A long history of grievance politics<\/p>\n

To understand today\u2019s sovereigntist turn, we need to situate it in Alberta\u2019s political culture. For nearly a century, Alberta political leaders have fused populism, \u201cwestern alienation\u201d and oil politics into a powerful narrative about Ottawa exploiting the province\u2019s resources.<\/p>\n

Read more:
\n Alberta has long accused Ottawa of trying to destroy its oil industry. Here\u2019s why that\u2019s a dangerous myth<\/a><\/p>\n

From Social Credit premiers William Aberhart and Ernest Manning through to Progressive Conservative Peter Lougheed, provincial governments portrayed hard\u2011working Albertans as besieged<\/a> by federal political leaders and eastern \u201cmoney powers\u201d siphoning off \u201ctheir\u201d oil wealth. <\/p>\n

That story hardened<\/a> during the National Energy Program<\/a> in the 1980s and was revived against former prime minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s climate policies and carbon pricing, which UCP governments portrayed as an attack on a fossil\u2011fuel\u2011based way of life.<\/p>\n

\"People<\/p>\n

Supporters wave signs during an anti-carbon tax rally in Calgary in October 2018.
\n THE CANADIAN PRESS\/Jeff McIntosh<\/p>\n

Recent scholarship<\/a> shows how this individualism, free\u2011market ideology and fossil\u2011fuel identity has been continually updated through the Reform Party, the \u201cfirewall\u201d letter<\/a>, Jason Kenney\u2019s \u201cFair Deal Panel\u201d<\/a> and, most recently, Premier Danielle Smith\u2019s Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Alberta\u2019s sovereigntist politics are therefore less an aberration than a radicalization of longstanding themes: populist anti\u2011elite rhetoric, resentment of Ottawa and a deep attachment to oil and gas.<\/p>\n

The Alberta Prosperity Project<\/p>\n

The Alberta Prosperity Project<\/a> (APP) crystallizes this paradox. Its leaders speak the language of hardship and urgency \u2014 \u201cwe see the writing on the wall\u201d \u2014 and claim Alberta must seize \u201cfreedom, prosperity and sovereignty\u201d from a confederation that no longer shares its \u201cvalues\u201d and \u201centrepreneurship.\u201d <\/p>\n

Their draft fiscal blueprint, The Value of Freedom<\/a>, promises that independence would unleash tens of billions in savings, eliminate personal income tax, slash other taxes and transform Alberta into \u201cthe most prosperous country in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n

Central to this case is the complaint that Albertans pay too much to Ottawa and get too little back in return \u2014 especially through equalization and other transfers. In this telling, sovereignty \u2014 or at least a radically \u201crestructured\u201d relationship with Canada \u2014 is the only way to stop Ottawa from siphoning off the fruits of Alberta\u2019s oil.<\/p>\n

Yet this narrative glosses over Alberta\u2019s own choices. During boom years, successive Conservative governments<\/a> \u2014 strongly backed by many of the same constituencies now drawn to sovereigntist rhetoric \u2014 cut taxes, kept royalties comparatively low and resisted building a large, Norway\u2011style savings fund.<\/p>\n

Read more:
\n Alberta budget means Albertans are trapped on a relentless fiscal rollercoaster ride<\/a><\/p>\n

At the same time, Alberta chronically under-invested<\/a> in health care, education and social services relative to its fiscal capacity, leaving systems stretched even before the COVID-19 pandemic. When oil prices fell, the result was not simply federal neglect but the exposure of a model<\/a> that had privileged low taxes and immediate consumption over long\u2011term resilience.<\/p>\n

In other words, the Alberta Prosperity Project is right that Albertans feel squeezed \u2014 but its account of who did the squeezing is selective. Sovereigntists who blame Ottawa and equalization for every shortfall ignore the role of provincial policy in creating the ongoing boom-and-bust cycle in Alberta.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith walks to the podium to speak on invoking her government\u2019s sovereignty act over federal clean energy regulations, in Edmonton, in November 2023.
\n THE CANADIAN PRESS\/Jason Franson<\/p>\n

\u2018Fossilized\u2019 regionalism<\/p>\n

Another source of discontent lies in the collision between Alberta\u2019s oil\u2011dependent economy and the global climate transition. <\/p>\n

Scholars say<\/a> Alberta regionalism is \u201cfossilized\u201d \u2014 decades of political and economic investment in oil and gas have locked in expectations about jobs, identity and provincial autonomy.<\/p>\n

As federal and international climate policies intensify, many Albertans interpret decarbonization as a threat. In a 2023 poll<\/a>, three in five Albertans said they believe the province is right to resist the federal government\u2019s net-zero goals. <\/p>\n

The fear is not that Alberta has been excluded from growth, but that it will be deliberately left behind in the next economy while its existing wealth is constrained or stranded.<\/p>\n

The Alberta Prosperity Project\u2019s fiscal plan<\/a> doubles down on hydrocarbons, promising prosperity through continued or expanded oil and gas development while railing against \u201cexternally imposed limits\u201d on emissions. <\/p>\n

\"pumpjacks<\/a><\/p>\n

Pumpjacks draw out oil and gas from a wellhead near Calgary in May 2024.
\n THE CANADIAN PRESS\/Jeff McIntosh<\/p>\n

Idiosyncrasies<\/p>\n

The Alberta Prosperity Project embodies the idiosyncrasies of this approach. It calls for an independent, low\u2011tax petro\u2011state, denounces federal redistribution and promises world\u2011leading prosperity. Yet it rarely acknowledges that the same political camp has historically opposed higher royalties, stronger stabilization funds and robust social investment when times were good. <\/p>\n

It presents the climate transition as an illegitimate imposition rather than a predictable structural shift that responsible governments could have prepared for.<\/p>\n

Recent revelations that APP leaders have been workshopping state\u2011building with senior U.S. officials shows this isn\u2019t just a symbolic protest, but an attempt to secure external backing for an oil\u2011centred future that Canada\u2019s constitutional order and climate obligations cannot sustain. <\/p>\n

Alberta\u2019s sovereigntist discontent is a three-way collision: long\u2011cultivated politics of grievance against Ottawa; a self\u2011inflicted fiscal and social vulnerability rooted in decisions made during boom years; and a global energy transition that threatens a deeply embedded regional identity.<\/p>\n

The danger? In insisting on a future of perpetual oil\u2011funded prosperity while railing against transfers and federal authority, movements like APP offer Albertans a superficially compelling story that cannot be reconciled with either Canada\u2019s Constitution or the realities of a warming world.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In the past year, leaders of Alberta\u2019s main separatist organization have travelled repeatedly to Washington, D.C., for quiet…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":470206,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,3,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":{"0":"post-470205","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-united-states","8":"tag-america","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-united-states-of-america","12":"tag-unitedstates","13":"tag-unitedstatesofamerica","14":"tag-us","15":"tag-usa"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/470205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=470205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/470205\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/470206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=470205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=470205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=470205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}