\n A 2024 report from the Defense Intelligence Agency also noted that China is seeking to revamp its nuclear arsenal with the US in mind.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cChina is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history\u2014almost certainly driven by an aim for enduring strategic competition with the U.S. and a goal to actualize intensified strategic concepts that have existed for decades but are now being realized,\u201d it states.\n <\/p>\n
\n Historically, China has viewed its nuclear capabilities as a means of self-defense and deterring other countries from using or threatening to use their own nuclear weapons against it. China has had a no-first-use policy in place for decades, but the country\u2019s 2023 proposal on global governance does not reference that commitment which has invited speculation that China\u2019s posture could be changing.\n <\/p>\n
\n And until recently, China\u2019s nuclear capability was considered far less advanced than its nuclear rivals. It has conducted far fewer tests from which it could collect data needed to design modernized weapons.\n <\/p>\n
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\n \u201cChina\u2019s nuclear weaponeers may lack confidence in the limited nuclear weapons data they collected during only 45 tests, most of which were conducted in the atmosphere and poorly instrumented,\u201d according to Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.\n <\/p>\n
\n That, US officials believe, is one of the primary reasons why China would resume explosive testing.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cThey have a brand new generation of weapons for which they have no database,\u201d said one of the sources familiar with the matter.\n <\/p>\n
\n As part of that modernization push, China has been investing heavily in maneuverability and survivability, multiple sources told CNN, noting Beijing has long feared the US could potentially wipe out its entire force before it can shoot back \u2013 or at least inflict enough damage to effectively neuter it.\n <\/p>\n
\n US officials also believe China has had concerns over the reliability of its own systems, which contributes to the urgency surrounding its modernization efforts and fueled investment in technologies to ensure its nuclear warheads can hit their intended target.\n <\/p>\n
\n Two sources noted that China appeared increasingly paranoid about a potential US attack during the same timeframe as that June 2020 nuclear test. In the lead-up to the 2020 US presidential election in November of the same year, Chinese officials even reached out to then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley because they were concerned about an \u201cOctober surprise,\u201d the sources said.\n <\/p>\n
\n While those tensions ultimately subsided, China has taken steps in the years since to not only update its nuclear forces but also sought to modernize its entire military.\n <\/p>\n
\n China\u2019s nuclear ambitions have reemerged as a topic of intrigue in recent weeks after State Department officials revealed new details about, what they allege, was an explosive test carried out at the Lop Nur facility in June 2020 \u2013 disclosing the exact date, location and related seismic data about the event to support their conclusion. The connection to China also using the test to modernize its arsenal became clear in the follow-on study of the test, particularly given the seismic magnitude, a former senior official told CNN.\n <\/p>\n
\n Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw told an event at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington this week the June 2020 event measured an \u201cexplosion\u201d of magnitude 2.75.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cI\u2019ve looked at additional data since then. There is very little possibility I would say that it is anything but an explosion, a singular explosion,\u201d said Yeaw, adding that the data was not consistent with mining blasts.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cIt\u2019s also entirely not consistent with an earthquake,\u201d said Yeaw, a former intelligence analyst and defense official who holds a doctorate in nuclear engineering. \u201cIt is \u2026 what you would expect with a nuclear explosive test.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
\n Earlier this month, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno also publicly accused China of having secretly carried out an explosive nuclear test in 2020 and suggested the US had obtained intelligence indicating Beijing planned to carry out more.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cI can reveal that the U.S. Government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons. The PLA (People\u2019s Liberation Army) sought to conceal testing by obfuscating the nuclear explosions because it recognized these tests violate test ban commitments,\u201d DiNanno said<\/a> during a February 6 speech.\n <\/p>\n \n CNN has since learned that additional intelligence collected by the US after the June 2020 event served as a key piece of the puzzle as experts have argued that the seismic data is not, on it\u2019s own, enough to definitively conclude it was a nuclear test or understand why it was carried out.\n <\/p>\n