![\"font\"](\"https:\/\/images.news18.com\/dlxczavtqcctuei\/news18\/static\/images\/english\/font.svg\" "\\"font\\"")
![\"new](\"https:\/\/images.news18.com\/dlxczavtqcctuei\/news18\/static\/images\/english\/new_share_icon.svg\" "\\"new"){kind=icon}
![\"new](\"https:\/\/images.news18.com\/dlxczavtqcctuei\/news18\/static\/images\/english\/new_whatsapp_icon.svg\" "\\"new"){kind=icon}
<\/a>![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/1771955292_847_1627283897_news18_logo-1200x800.jpg\" "\\"The"){kind=logo}
![](\"https:\/\/images.news18.com\/dlxczavtqcctuei\/news18\/static\/images\/english\/zoom-img.svg\")
<\/p>\nThe report is a thematic thought experiment exploring a scenario where the rapid success of AI leads to systemic economic instability by June 2028. (AI generated for representation)<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Citrini Research has published a provocative macro-analysis titled \u2018The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis\u2019, which has triggered a significant \u2018AI scare trade\u2019 across global markets.<\/p>\n
The report is a thematic thought experiment exploring a scenario where the rapid success of artificial intelligence (AI) <\/a>leads to systemic economic instability by June 2028.<\/p>\n The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: Key insights<\/p>\n The report, co-authored by James van Geelen and Alap Shah, outlines several critical risks: <\/p>\n Ghost GDP: A phenomenon where AI boosts productivity and corporate profits (inflating nominal GDP), while actual household income and wage growth collapse due to mass white-collar displacement.<\/p>\n Intelligence Displacement Spiral: A negative feedback loop where companies cut payroll costs through automation, leading to weakened consumer spending, which then forces further corporate cost-cutting and AI reinvestment.<\/p>\n Death of SaaS: The report predicts that AI agents will allow companies to replicate core software functionalities in-house, undermining the pricing power and recurring revenue models of traditional Software-as-a-Service firms.<\/p>\n Market Impact: The scenario models a potential 38% drawdown in the S&P 500 from October 2026 highs and a 10.2% unemployment rate by 2028.<\/p>\n Sector-specific risks and winners<\/p>\n The report identifies specific industries and regions that face high exposure to this disruption: <\/p>\n Indian IT Services: Predicts a \u201cstructural obit” for the sector, with firms like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro facing massive contract cancellations as the cost of AI coding agents<\/a> collapses to \u201cthe cost of electricity”.<\/p>\n Financial Intermediaries: Traditional payment processors like Visa and Mastercard are seen as vulnerable as AI agents bypass traditional interchange fees using lower-cost rails like stablecoins.<\/p>\n Regional Beneficiaries: In contrast to US software gloom, Asia (specifically Korea and Taiwan) is seen as a winner due to its concentration of \u201cpicks and shovels” hardware providers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The future of jobs<\/p>\n \u201cAI has created new jobs. Prompt engineers. AI safety researchers. Infrastructure technicians. Humans are still in the loop, coordinating at the highest level or directing for taste. For every new role AI created, though, it rendered dozens obsolete. The new roles<\/a> paid a fraction of what the old ones did,” the study says about the near future job market.<\/p>\n What does the report say about India?<\/p>\n In the first quarter of 2028, New Delhi will begin \u2018preliminary discussions\u2019 with the International Monetary Fund.<\/p>\n The report further says that the Indian IT sector<\/a> was largely built on the premise of cost-effectiveness. But with artificial intelligence disrupting the coding business, the dependence on the Indian tech sector will shrink. \u201cBut the marginal cost of an AI coding agent had collapsed to, essentially, the cost of electricity. TCS, Infosys and Wipro saw contract cancellations accelerate through 2027,” the Citrini Research writes in the viral study. The report also adds that in next two years, the rupee will depreciate further. \u201cThe rupee fell 18% against the dollar in four months as the services surplus that had anchored India\u2019s external accounts evaporated.”<\/p>\n \u2018Just a scenario, not a prediction\u2019: What is Citrini? Who is James van Geelen and Alap Shah?<\/p>\n As per a report by the Wall Street Journal, Citrini is a small research group that was founded just three years ago in 2023.<\/p>\n Its founder has been identified as James van Geelen, who started writing stock research papers after selling his healthcare company. Geelen is known to be a writer on weight loss medicines and AI.<\/p>\n The latest viral report was also co-authored by Alap Shah, who is the chief investment officer of Littlebird at Lotus Technology Management in New York(since September 2024). He has worked as the Managing Partner at Lotus Technology Management in Florida, and Co-Founder & Chairman of Thistle in the San Francisco Bay Area. He previously co-founded Sentieo, an AI-powered financial search platform later acquired by AlphaSense, serving as CEO from December 2011 to September 2020 and as Chairman from September 2020 to May 2022. He did his graduation in Economics from Harvard University, according to his LinkedIn profile.<\/p>\n The report has categorically said that it is not a prediction<\/a> of what will happen in the future but a case study of all the scenarios that may unfold if the current AI rollout continues. \u201cWhat follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn\u2019t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that\u2019s been relatively underexplored,” the report says.<\/p>\n How have the markets reacted?<\/p>\n IBM experienced its worst trading day in 25 years following the report\u2019s release.<\/p>\n Indian IT stocks saw heavy sell-offs, and the Indian Rupee faced pressure in global markets.<\/p>\n Co-author Alap Shah clarified that his firm holds short positions against disrupted sectors while owning \u201ca lot” of semiconductor stocks poised to benefit<\/p>\n First Published:<\/p>\n February 24, 2026, 13:03 IST<\/p>\n News<\/a> explainers<\/a> Mass Layoffs, Ghost GDP, AI-Led Doomsday In 2028: Citrini Research That Shook Markets ExplainedDisclaimer: Comments reflect users\u2019 views, not News18\u2019s. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use<\/a> and Privacy Policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Last Updated:February 24, 2026, 19:45 IST 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis report by Citrini: What does viral report say…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":488025,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[224210,224212,224217,224211,28,224215,101,224213,224216,224214],"class_list":["post-488024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-2028-global-intelligence-crisis","tag-agentic-ai-economic-impact","tag-ai-and-job-market","tag-ai-scare-trade","tag-business","tag-death-of-saas","tag-economy","tag-ghost-gdp","tag-indian-it-sector-disruption","tag-intelligence-displacement-spiral"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/488024","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=488024"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/488024\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/488025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=488024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=488024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=488024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}