{"id":495028,"date":"2026-02-28T05:24:10","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T05:24:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/495028\/"},"modified":"2026-02-28T05:24:10","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T05:24:10","slug":"draws-and-fades-with-inclement-weather-looming-look-for-aaron-rai-to-make-weekend-charge-at-pga-national","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/495028\/","title":{"rendered":"Draws and Fades: With inclement weather looming, look for Aaron Rai to make weekend charge at PGA National"},"content":{"rendered":"

5H AGO<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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Aaron Rai hits 107-yard approach to 4 feet, sets up birdie on No. 18 at Cognizant Classic<\/p>\n

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A<\/p>\n

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Written by Will Gray<\/p>\n

Last week Jacob Bridgeman broke free from the pack at The Genesis Invitational to claim his maiden PGA TOUR victory. Could we be looking at a similar watershed moment this week for Austin Smotherman in Florida?<\/p>\n

Smotherman kept his foot on the gas pedal Friday at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, building on an opening-round 62 to take a three-shot lead into the weekend. The former SMU product is down to +210 at DraftKings Sportsbook to take the trophy at PGA National, with only Taylor Moore and Nico Echavarria priced under +1000.<\/p>\n

Updated odds to win Cognizant Classic (via DraftKings)<\/p>\n

+210: Austin Smotherman (11 under)+640: Taylor Moore (8 under)+860: Nico Echavarria (7 under)+1175: Shane Lowry (5 under)+1850: Joel Dahmen (6 under)+1900: A.J. Ewart (7 under)+1950: Aaron Rai (5 under)+2050: Kristoffer Reitan (5 under)<\/p>\n

Smotherman has made just three bogeys through 36 holes on penal PGA National’s The Champion Course, leading the field in Strokes Gained: Putting while sitting third in SG: Tee-to-Green. It\u2019s a potent combination that has him in the driver\u2019s seat at the halfway point despite three missed cuts in four starts this season.<\/p>\n

Topping the chase pack is Moore, whose lone TOUR win came across the state at the Valspar Championship a couple years ago, while Lowry remains the biggest name on the leaderboard but faces a six-shot deficit heading into the weekend where third-round tee times will be moved up because of inclement weather.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a look at some of the in-tournament plays I\u2019m keeping an eye on in Palm Beach Gardens:<\/p>\n

Aaron Rai, Top U.K. & Ireland (+200)<\/p>\n

This is a seven-man market but essentially a three-man race between Rai, Lowry and Seamus Power. I\u2019m willing to fade Power, who\u2019s in the mix largely because of a red-hot putter that led the field in SG: Putting in the second round. The idea of having +200 on Rai in what could become a head-to-head among two men tied at 5 under, then, is appealing \u2013 particularly if the bad weather rolls in. Rai\u2019s two-glove approach has plenty of upside in wet conditions, and his lone TOUR win came at a water-logged Wyndham Championship two years ago.<\/p>\n

The Englishman is 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green and has plenty of ball-striking chops to handle PGA National. Lowry will draw plenty of bettors\u2019 attention this week, but that could create some line value on Rai in a market like this.<\/p>\n

*:not(style){overflow:hidden;position:absolute;top:0px;right:0px;bottom:0px;left:0px;display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-pack:center;-ms-flex-pack:center;-webkit-justify-content:center;justify-content:center;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;width:100%;height:100%;}.css-17ygvlf>img,.css-17ygvlf>video{object-fit:cover;}.css-17ygvlf::before{height:0px;content:””;display:block;padding-bottom:56.25%;}]]>\"Aaron<\/p>\n

Aaron Rai hits 131-yard approach to 8 feet, sets up birdie on No. 14 at Cognizant Classic<\/p>\n

Daniel Berger, Top 5 finish plus ties (+315)<\/p>\n

The Florida native and former playoff runner-up at this event stalled out in the second round because of a balky putter. Berger opened with 4-under 67 but finished Friday 108th out of 122 players in SG: Putting while losing nearly 2.3 strokes on the greens. It means the four-time TOUR winner heads into the weekend at 4 under, tied for 13th and seven shots off the lead.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s reason to believe in a bounce back from Berger, as his ball-striking stats are everything you\u2019d want from a potential contender through 36 holes: seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green, 11th in SG: Approach and seventh in Proximity.<\/p>\n

Berger has plenty of experience, both contending at this event and playing PGA National in all kinds of weather. If he putts more like he did on Thursday, where he gained +1.2 strokes on the greens, he\u2019ll have a great chance to chase down Smotherman and put himself in position for what would be a fourth top-5 finish at this event since 2015.<\/p>\n

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET today.<\/p>\n

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Feb 23, 2026<\/p>\n

Aaron Rai betting profile: Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches<\/a>Betting Profile<\/a>\"Image\"Image<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"5H AGO *:not(style){overflow:hidden;position:absolute;top:0px;right:0px;bottom:0px;left:0px;display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-pack:center;-ms-flex-pack:center;-webkit-justify-content:center;justify-content:center;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;width:100%;height:100%;}.css-17ygvlf>img,.css-17ygvlf>video{object-fit:cover;}.css-17ygvlf::before{height:0px;content:””;display:block;padding-bottom:56.25%;}]]> Aaron Rai hits 107-yard approach to 4 feet, sets up birdie on No. 18 at…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":495029,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[427,99],"class_list":["post-495028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-golf","tag-golf","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/495028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=495028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/495028\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/495029"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=495028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=495028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=495028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}