{"id":497126,"date":"2026-03-01T07:59:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T07:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/497126\/"},"modified":"2026-03-01T07:59:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T07:59:12","slug":"suspected-insiders-make-over-1-2-million-on-polymarket-ahead-of-u-s-strike-on-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/497126\/","title":{"rendered":"Suspected insiders make over $1.2 million on Polymarket ahead of U.S. strike on Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Six Polymarket accounts earned roughly $1.2 million after correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on Feb. 28, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.<\/p>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/bubblemaps\/status\/2027718004193300791\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">post<\/a> on X, blockchain analyzer Bubblemaps said most of the wallets were funded within the last 24 hours before the attack and bought \u201cYes\u201d shares in the \u201cU.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?\u201d market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions.<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"Suspected insiders (Bubblemaps)\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1166\" height=\"1184\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"rounded-md\" style=\"color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/png;base64,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&quot;)\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1772351952_749_image.png\"\/>Suspected insiders (Bubblemaps)<\/p>\n<p>The strikes followed a televised address by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing what he called \u201cmajor combat operations,\u201d targeting the country\u2019s missile, naval, and nuclear infrastructure. The attack saw <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2026\/02\/28\/bitcoin-could-see-further-downside-risks-as-iran-attacks-u-s-bases-across-middle-east\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">bitcoin\u2019s price drop<\/a> while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2026\/02\/28\/oil-linked-futures-on-hyperliquid-surge-5-after-u-s-israel-strike-on-iran\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">oil futures on Hyperliquid rose.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>One Polymarket account Bubblemaps pointed to purchased more than 560,000 \u201cYes\u201d shares at about 10.8 cents each, a position that paid out near $560,000 after the market resolved at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, turning a six-figure profit. All six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data.<\/p>\n<p>Trading volume on the Feb. 28 contract <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/us-strikes-iran-by\/us-strikes-iran-by-march-1-2026-492\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">reached<\/a> nearly $90 million, part of more than $529 million wagered across related strike-date markets since December.<\/p>\n<p>Bubblemaps published a visual map showing the six wallets clustered together and funded through similar paths.<\/p>\n<p>Insider trading probes<\/p>\n<p>The trades land as U.S. regulators weigh how to police insider activity on prediction markets. This week, rival platform Kalshi said it <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/policy\/2026\/02\/25\/mrbeast-editor-nabbed-by-prediction-market-firm-kalshi-for-alleged-insider-trading\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">suspended and fined<\/a> two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast\u2019s \u201cBeast Games\u201d who allegedly traded on knowledge of show outcomes. <\/p>\n<p>Kalshi, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market, said it has investigated about 200 cases and has more than a dozen active probes.<\/p>\n<p>The CFTC issued an advisory noting the enforcement actions and warned that insider trading on event contracts may violate U.S. law. Chairman Mike Selig called exchanges the \u201cfirst line of defense.\u201d Kalshi banned the employee for two years and fined him more than $20,000. In a separate case, a political candidate was penalized for betting on his own race.<\/p>\n<p>More recently, Polymarket traders have appeared to<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2026\/02\/27\/polymarket-bettors-appear-to-have-insider-traded-on-a-market-designed-to-catch-insider-traders\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> insider trade a market on insider trading itself. <\/a>Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT last week teased that he would publish the findings of an investigation into a crypto platform, which turned out to be Axiom, whose employees he believed used non-public information to trade.<\/p>\n<p>Teasing the investigation was coming, however, led to the creation of a Polymarket contract on which company would be named. Some clearly knew the answer to which company was under investigation, with Lookonchain identifying 12 wallets that heavily bet on Axiom ahead of the reveal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Six Polymarket accounts earned roughly $1.2 million after correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on Feb.&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":497127,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[28,27146,801,58007],"class_list":{"0":"post-497126","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-insider-trading","10":"tag-iran","11":"tag-polymarket"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=497126"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497126\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/497127"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=497126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=497126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=497126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}