That it took this long to react to what\u2019s been obvious for months is yet another blight on management that makes it difficult to atone for the last one: trading a pick with only top-five protection for a third-pair defender. With the Leafs\u2019 direction finally decided for them, is it too late to make up ground in the lottery race?<\/p>\n
Toronto entered Saturday\u2019s game eight points back of Boston \u2014 but also nine points ahead of fifth-last in the league. As difficult as it would be to sneak into the playoffs, the Leafs find themselves in just as difficult a position to sneak into the league\u2019s bottom five with only 22 games remaining. Their chances of making the playoffs are currently right in line with their chances of nabbing a top-five pick: 7 to 8 percent.<\/p>\n
In what\u2019s already a lost season, the likelihood of giving up a top-10 pick to a rival makes things only more bleak. Being bad is supposed to come with some reward for the future; not even getting that makes the season sting even more. To some extent, that\u2019s already a sunk cost, but being proactive in either direction could\u2019ve mitigated that.<\/p>\n
With 22 games left, the odds are completely stacked against the Leafs falling to the bottom five \u2014 even with a sell-off. Trading Bobby McMann, Scott Laughton and Oliver Ekman-Larsson only increases the team\u2019s chances of a top-five pick by 3 percentage points. Worse, it potentially cements their chances of giving up a top-10 pick to Boston, with the odds of that jumping from 28 percent to 37 percent. The worse Toronto gets, the more Boston benefits.<\/p>\n
Sure, that may be overselling the ability of a team that looks as if it has quit on its coach, a now essential cog in Toronto\u2019s losing goals. But the problem is the three likely players being traded don\u2019t move the needle enough to be bottom-five bad. And that\u2019s while ignoring the fact the teams below Toronto will also be selling.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just the lack of needle movers being moved, it\u2019s the lack of time to move down. To catch the other bottom-five teams, the Leafs have to be significantly worse than them. Some have suggested shutting down the team\u2019s best players who have been less than 100 percent all year, but we\u2019re now at a point where even that alone probably isn\u2019t enough.<\/p>\n
Shutting Matthew Knies down for the rest of the season boosts Toronto\u2019s top-five pick chances to 13 percent. Shutting William Nylander down as well gets them to 19 percent. Add Auston Matthews to that list and it helps a lot, but it\u2019s still not enough to make it a likelihood (Toronto\u2019s top-five pick odds would still be only 34 percent). All the while, the likelihood of a high pick going to Boston becomes only stronger (54 percent in that final scenario).<\/p>\n
The issue is that the bottom-five cutoff currently projects to be around 75 points and the Leafs already have 63. The Leafs would be the league\u2019s worst team without all those players in the lineup and expected to play at an abhorrent 61-point pace, but that would still leave them with 79 points, good for sixth-last. Even being the fifth-worst team wouldn\u2019t be hunky-dory due to the likelihood of dropping to sixth or seventh (58 percent) being higher than picking in the top three or fifth. And we all know that 58 percent undersells an extremely Leafy scenario.<\/p>\n
All of that leaves the Leafs in no-man\u2019s-land, the worst spot for a non-playoff team, made even uglier by the increasing likelihood that the Leafs will be giving up a premium pick to Boston.<\/p>\n
With proper foresight, planning, vision and execution \u2014 all things this management team lacks \u2014 it\u2019s something that this franchise had every opportunity to avoid all season. The front office decided to sit on its hands instead, allowing a poorly built ship to steer itself to its deserved conclusion. In all likelihood, it\u2019s too late to salvage this season\u2019s wreckage.<\/p>\n
That leads to one inevitable conclusion: Restock the cupboards for a retool with an eye toward next year\u2019s playoffs. Considering it\u2019ll be the same crew charting that course, don\u2019t hold your breath that they\u2019ll be able to avoid the same self-inflicted wreckage next season either.<\/p>\n
Stock watch<\/p>\n
The biggest changes in projected value over the last 10 games.<\/p>\n
Risers<\/p>\n
Max Domi
Net Rating: up 1.2<\/p>\n
Having Domi on the top line is far from ideal for the Leafs. He\u2019s still a defensive liability who struggles against top competition, and that hasn\u2019t changed the longer he\u2019s stayed there. But to Domi\u2019s credit, he has mostly delivered offensively. Over the last 10 games, he has eight points, and since Jan. 1, he has 14 points in 20 games. That\u2019s a 57-point pace.<\/p>\n
That trend has pushed his Offensive Rating up to an above-average level, but that still makes him a difficult fit given his below-average Defensive Rating. The question about whether he can drive his own line also remains unanswered. For now, we can just give Domi kudos for looking decent next to Matthews over the last little bit.<\/p>\n
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