The Mexican economy grew more than expected in the second quarter of 2025, expanding 0.7% compared to the previous three-month period, according to preliminary data published by the national statistics agency INEGI on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than the 0.4% median forecast of 13 analysts surveyed by Reuters.<\/p>\n
The GDP increase came after the Mexican economy grew 0.2% on a sequential basis in the first quarter of the year<\/a>, and contracted 0.7% in the final quarter of 2024.<\/p>\n INEGI also reported<\/a> that the economy grew 1.2% annually in seasonally adjusted terms in the second quarter of the year. Unadjusted data showed a 0.1% annual growth rate for the three-month period between April and June.<\/p>\n Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, said on X<\/a> that the INEGI data shows that it is \u201cclear that Mexico is not in recession.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cBut that doesn\u2019t mean the economy is doing well,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is still a risk of recession for Mexico, especially if the United States begins to strictly enforce tariffs or if more sectors are added to sectoral tariffs,\u201d Siller wrote in a separate post<\/a>.<\/p>\n The publication of the preliminary growth data for the second quarter of 2025 comes two days before the United States is scheduled to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico<\/a>, separate from sectoral tariffs that currently apply to steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts.<\/p>\n Manufacturing and services drive sequential growth in Q2<\/p>\n INEGI\u2019s data shows that the secondary sector, which includes manufacturing and construction, grew 0.8% on a sequential basis in the second quarter.<\/p>\n Mexico\u2019s export revenue shot up 10.6% in June, with manufacturing leading the way<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n The tertiary, or services, sector expanded 0.7% compared to the first quarter, while the primary sector contracted 1.3%.<\/p>\n The newspaper El Financiero reported that the primary sector contraction was related to the U.S. ban on livestock imports from Mexico<\/a> due to the screwworm risk.<\/p>\n Despite U.S. tariffs, Mexico\u2019s export revenue \u2014 largely generated by manufacturing \u2014 continued to grow in the first half of 2025, increasing 4.4% annually<\/a>.<\/p>\n Siller said on X<\/a> that exports are \u201cboosting\u201d the Mexican economy.<\/p>\n In annual seasonally adjusted terms, the primary sector grew 4.5% in the second quarter, while the tertiary sector expanded 1.7%. The secondary sector contracted 0.2% annually in Q2.<\/p>\n IMF raises 2025 forecast for Mexico<\/p>\n Before the publication of INEGI\u2019s Q2 growth data, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2025 forecast for economic growth in Mexico to 0.2% from a previous projection of a 0.3% contraction<\/a>.<\/p>\n Mexico only major economy projected to shrink in 2025, IMF report shows<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n The IMF\u2019s updated forecast was included in its World Economic Outlook Update report<\/a>, which was published on Tuesday.<\/p>\n The IMF is predicting a 1.4% growth rate in Mexico in 2026. That forecast is unchanged from the IMF\u2019s prediction in April.<\/p>\n A 0.2% growth rate in Mexico in 2025 would represent a significant slowdown from the 1.5% expansion recorded in 2024<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Mexican economy is currently facing significant uncertainty as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff policies.<\/p>\n The Mexican government has been attempting to reach a deal with the Trump administration<\/a> to stave off the 30% tariff due to take effect this Friday. As of Wednesday morning, no deal had been reached.<\/p>\n With reports from El Financiero<\/a>\u00a0and Reuters\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Mexican economy grew more than expected in the second quarter of 2025, expanding 0.7% compared to the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":49799,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[38554,38555,28,38556,101,38557,38558,38559,38560,25712],"class_list":["post-49798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-2025-growth-forecast","tag-2025-growth-mexico","tag-business","tag-economic-growth-forecast-mexico","tag-economy","tag-imf-outlook-mexico","tag-mexico-economic-growth","tag-mexico-economic-stagnation","tag-mexicos-economy-second-quarter","tag-sticky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49798\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49799"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}