{"id":500204,"date":"2026-03-03T00:48:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T00:48:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/500204\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T00:48:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T00:48:08","slug":"sinners-could-win-best-picture-after-michael-b-jordan-sag-victory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/500204\/","title":{"rendered":"Sinners Could Win Best Picture After Michael B. Jordan SAG Victory"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tWith clear eyes and a full heart, Michael B. Jordan<\/a> took home two Actor Awards (one for Smoke and one for Stack).<\/p>\n

\n\tThere are moments \u2014 not very often \u2014 at an awards ceremony where you feel the entire DNA of the Oscar season shift beneath your feet, and in the room itself. At the Actor Awards on Sunday night<\/a>, we experienced one of those moments. When Jordan and the cast of the Warner Bros. vampire drama \u201cSinners<\/a>\u201d took home best actor and the top ensemble prize, the room roared.<\/p>\n

\n\tThis past weekend shook up the race in ways many observers were either unable or unwilling to acknowledge. On Saturday, Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s political epic \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d claimed the top prize at the Producers Guild of America Awards, all but confirming its path to Oscar glory \u2014 at least by historical precedent. Then, less than 24 hours later, Ryan Coogler\u2019s box office sensation threw a wrench into that trajectory, with Jordan claiming best actor over a field of presumed frontrunners and the cast walking away with the ensemble prize.<\/p>\n

\n\tIt is easy to tally the statistics and call the race for \u201cOne Battle After Another.\u201d That argument is entirely plausible. But reporting from the ground and speaking with multiple Oscar voters over the last week suggests a race unfolding in real time. As it stands, the only genuine certainty heading into Academy Awards night is best actress, where Jessie Buckley \u2014 the season\u2019s lone sweeper for \u201cHamnet\u201d \u2014 remains the surest thing on the board.<\/p>\n

\n\tThis is what the Oscar race should be. And that\u2019s exciting.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe last time we walked into a ceremony where the top six categories \u2014 best picture, director and four acting races \u2014 felt this genuinely unsettled was the 2003 ceremony. That night produced shocking wins for Adrien Brody and director Roman Polanski for \u201cThe Pianist,\u201d over SAG and BAFTA winner Daniel Day-Lewis (\u201cGangs of New York\u201d) and DGA winner Rob Marshall (\u201cChicago\u201d). Nicole Kidman\u2019s work in \u201cThe Hours\u201d overtook Globe and SAG winner Ren\u00e9e Zellweger from best picture winner \u201cChicago,\u201d and Chris Cooper\u2019s Globe and Critics Choice Association-winning turn in \u201cAdaptation\u201d triumphed over SAG and BAFTA winner Christopher Walken from \u201cCatch Me If You Can.\u201d Coincidentally, no one has ever won the supporting actor Oscar with both the SAG and BAFTA awards, which is precisely the position Sean Penn now finds himself in.<\/p>\n

\n\tAnd then there\u2019s the coveted 2000 ceremony, which I\u2019ve been referencing for the past few weeks as the gold standard of volatility. Ang Lee walked in with DGA, Golden Globes and BAFTA wins for \u201cCrouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.\u201d Steven Soderbergh \u2014 armed with only a combined Critics Choice win for \u201cErin Brockovich\u201d and \u201cTraffic\u201d \u2014 won his Academy Award for the latter, even with double bids. \u201cGladiator\u201d won best picture with three technical Oscars<\/a> and a surprise best actor winner in Russell Crowe, who had only the BAFTA. That same night, Marcia Gay Harden stunned in supporting actress for \u201cPollock,\u201d without a single other precursor nomination to her name, and a different winner had emerged at each individual ceremony leading up to Oscar night.<\/p>\n

\n\tHello, Delroy Lindo?<\/p>\n

\n\tWe may be living inside that kind of year right now.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cSinners\u201d becomes only the fifth film to win both best cast ensemble and best actor at the SAG\/Actor Awards, following \u201cAmerican Beauty\u201d (1999) and Kevin Spacey; \u201cTraffic\u201d (2000) and Benicio Del Toro (won supporting Oscar, despite winning lead at SAG); \u201cThe King\u2019s Speech\u201d (2010) and Colin Firth; and \u201cOppenheimer\u201d (2023) and Cillian Murphy. <\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cTraffic\u201d is the only title among those four to subsequently lose best picture. The implication for \u201cSinners\u201d is obvious.<\/p>\n

\n\tAnd yet the statistics are not simply stacked in one direction. Consider the following scenarios, assuming the WGA wins go to the respective films.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn \u201cOne Battle After Another\u2019s\u201d corner: No film in history with wins at the Critics Choice Association, Golden Globes, BAFTA, ACE Eddie Awards, DGA, PGA and WGA \u2014 along with at least one SAG prize \u2014 has ever lost best picture.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn \u201cSinners’\u201d corner: No film with ACE, SAG and WGA wins has ever lost best picture.<\/p>\n

\n\tOne of those streaks will end on Oscar night.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tMichael B. Jordan accepts best actor at The Actor Awards<\/a> for \u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tGetty Images<\/p>\n

\n\tAdditionally worth noting: No film since 2000 has lost best picture while winning director, screenplay and editing \u2014 a trio \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d is positioned to sweep. And no film since 1993 has lost best picture while winning two acting awards and screenplay, which is where \u201cSinners\u201d finds itself.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe math doesn\u2019t disappear just because \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d has stacked more trophies. It only gets more interesting.<\/p>\n

\n\tTriple nominee Coogler, meanwhile, made history at the Actor Awards as the first director<\/a> to helm two cast ensemble winners, for \u201cSinners\u201d and \u201cBlack Panther.\u201d That\u2019s just on top of all the history his vampire drama has made until now.<\/p>\n

\n\tJordan\u2019s win was critical, not only for his personal campaign (though presenter Viola Davis\u2019 reaction may go down as one of the great awards show moments of recent memory), but also for his film\u2019s path to best picture.<\/p>\n

\n\tTimoth\u00e9e Chalamet\u2019s prospects for \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d have all but evaporated. For weeks, his campaign style drew significant criticism from industry professionals and voters, and he may have to wait a little longer for his first Oscar. I\u2019ve long believed this season might ultimately belong to four-time nominee Ethan Hawke for \u201cBlue Moon\u201d \u2014 and that\u2019s still theoretically possible. But what I\u2019ve grown increasingly confident in is that Chalamet would not emerge victorious. We just needed to figure out who would. Sunday at the Actor Awards may have answered that.<\/p>\n

\n\tWith only Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins to his name, Chalamet now occupies the same precarious territory as early frontrunners who came up short \u2014 among them Angela Bassett for \u201cBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever\u201d and Jack Nicholson for \u201cAbout Schmidt.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tAt this stage, only Hawke and Globe winner Wagner Moura from \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d carry enough juice to topple Jordan. But that path is steep. The parallels to Russell Crowe\u2019s run in \u201cGladiator\u201d \u2014 claiming a key acting win to complete his package at the finish line \u2014 are unmistakable. And \u201cSinners\u201d is also positioned for original screenplay, which the Roman empire epic did not have. That makes Coogler\u2019s film an even stronger cumulative case.<\/p>\n

\n\tThere is, however, a significant statistical caveat. No performer has ever won the Oscar for best actor with only a SAG win as their lone televised precursor \u2014 with one notable asterisk. Roberto Benigni accomplished it for \u201cLife Is Beautiful\u201d (1998), though it should be noted that BAFTA voting took place after the Oscars in that era, making the comparison less clean. That asterisk has historically swallowed actors like Denzel Washington for \u201cFences\u201d (2016) and, most recently, Chalamet for \u201cA Complete Unknown\u201d last year.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tSean Penn in \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u00a9Warner Bros\/Courtesy Everett C<\/p>\n

\n\tIf Chalamet\u2019s approach has been polarizing, Sean Penn\u2019s has been virtually nonexistent. Penn mirrored his BAFTA win for \u201cOne Battle After Another,\u201d but attended neither ceremony. He has never been an avid campaigner, and with two Oscars already on his shelf \u2014 for \u201cMystic River\u201d and \u201cMilk\u201d \u2014 that absence could prove decisive. He also once said publicly he would \u201csmelt\u201d his Academy Awards. The Academy does not hand out third Oscars to just anyone. And wouldn\u2019t it feel better to hand it to someone who would appreciate it?<\/p>\n

\n\tWhich brings us to Lindo. The 73-year-old veteran landed a surprise Oscar nomination for his scene-stealing turn in \u201cSinners,\u201d despite being shut out by every major precursor. Only three performers in modern history \u2014 Marcia Gay Harden (\u201cPollock\u201d), Regina King (\u201cIf Beale Street Could Talk\u201d) and Christoph Waltz (\u201cDjango Unchained\u201d) \u2014 have won an Oscar without a SAG nomination. Harden is the only one who, like Lindo, missed every major precursor entirely. No one has ever won best supporting actor on the strength of only a SAG nomination and BAFTA wins \u2014 a combination that hurts Penn. And the last supporting actor to win with only a Golden Globe was George Clooney for \u201cSyriana,\u201d which hurts Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd. There could be a surprise on Oscar night, however you slice it.<\/p>\n

\n\tConsider the possibility now very much on the table: \u201cSinners\u201d could emerge from Oscar night with three acting winners, a screenplay win for Coogler and at least one near-certain technical prize in original score. If that scenario plays out, the conversation around best picture resolves itself rather quickly. Overwhelming support across categories has a way of pulling the top prize along \u2014 see \u201cEverything Everywhere All at Once\u201d (2022), which ran the table in acting and walked away with everything that mattered.<\/p>\n

\n\tBut that outcome immediately raises an uncomfortable question: Why is Coogler\u2019s directorial achievement being left behind?<\/p>\n

\n\tIf the prevailing argument is that Paul Thomas Anderson needs an Oscar \u2014 and it is a legitimate one \u2014 he gets it in adapted screenplay. His consolation is not nothing. It is, by any measure, a significant recognition. The question is whether that arithmetic satisfies voters who have watched Coogler build one of the most ambitious and formally daring studio films of the decade.<\/p>\n

\n\tAnd here is the part that requires genuine candor, the kind that only comes from knowing Oscar history in full \u2014 the good, the bad and the ugly: There is no guarantee Coogler ever arrives at this table again as a nominee, regardless of how deep and undeniable his talent is or becomes. Hollywood has an unfortunate habit of making that promise to filmmakers and breaking it quietly over time.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cShakespeare in Love\u201d (1998) is the last best picture winner to claim two acting prizes, a screenplay win and the top prize while losing the directing award. John Madden took that loss gracefully and largely receded from the awards conversation that followed. But let\u2019s be fully honest \u2014 the gap between how much the industry knew Madden then and how much the industry knows Coogler right now is not a gap; it is a canyon. The moral weight of that distinction will not be lost on Academy voters when they sit down to make their final choices.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tAmy Madigan in \u201cWeapons\u201d <\/p>\n

\n\tAmy Madigan doing the \u201cWeapons\u201d run on the Actor Awards stage when she won best supporting actress for her work in the horror film had the kinetic energy of Jamie Lee Curtis\u2019 SAG win for \u201cEverything Everywhere All at Once\u201d in 2022. Emotion in that room can carry real weight in the days that follow.<\/p>\n

\n\tBAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku from \u201cSinners\u201d remains formidable. My read is that the race will ultimately come down to her and Madigan, since Teyana Taylor\u2019s work in \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d has not been awarded since the Golden Globes, and the \u201cSentimental Value\u201d duo of Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas missed out on SAG bids entirely.<\/p>\n

\n\tMy hesitation in fully committing to Madigan for the Oscar stems from two things: she is not attached to a best picture contender \u2014 or any film with another nomination \u2014 and she could not crack the top six at BAFTA for a nomination. Being the sole nod for your film is historically difficult to overcome when your closest competitors come from the two presumed best picture frontrunners: Mosaku from \u201cSinners\u201d and Taylor from \u201cOne Battle After Another.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tHistory offers some perspective. Over the decades, several performers have won acting Oscars as the sole nomination for their respective films. In most of those cases \u2014 Forest Whitaker for \u201cThe Last King of Scotland,\u201d Charlize Theron for \u201cMonster,\u201d Angelina Jolie for \u201cGirl, Interrupted\u201d and Kathy Bates for \u201cMisery,\u201d among others \u2014 the best picture winner did not field a nominee in the same acting category, clearing the path. In fact, it has happened only eight times in Oscar history, and the last was Goldie Hawn for \u201cCactus Flower\u201d (1969) over Sylvia Miles in \u201cMidnight Cowboy.\u201d That is not the terrain Madigan is navigating.<\/p>\n

\n\tBased on conversations with multiple Academy voters over the past several days, many have not yet cast their ballots. That could be meaningful for \u201cSinners.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tThe Actor Awards draws from a membership of roughly 160,000 actors, the vast majority of whom are U.S.-based. The Academy, by contrast, has approximately 10,000 active voting members spread across every sector of the film industry. And while the guild and the Academy are distinct bodies, their overlap is significant. The Actors branch is the single largest in the Academy, with more than 1,300 members \u2014 more than any other branch, including directors, producers or writers. When actors vote as a bloc, they move numbers. Sunday night\u2019s result should be understood in that context: the most powerful constituency in the Academy just sent a message.<\/p>\n

\n\tI keep coming back to the single, fundamental question of this phase two voting period: what does a historic 16 nominations mean?<\/p>\n

\n\tAre we supposed to believe it really means nothing? Nothing at all?<\/p>\n

\n\tThe probability math for \u201cSinners\u201d does not dissolve simply because \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d has accumulated more individual trophies. A friendly reminder for best picture: \u201cMoonlight\u201d lost the PGA, DGA and SAG Awards. \u201cParasite\u201d lost the PGA and DGA. \u201cSpotlight\u201d lost the PGA and DGA. \u201cThe Departed\u201d lost the PGA and SAG. \u201cMillion Dollar Baby\u201d lost the PGA and SAG.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe precedents for an upset are there. The question is whether they matter or not. Something unprecedented is about to happen on Oscar night.<\/p>\n

\n\tFinal Oscar voting will take place from Feb. 26 to March 5. The 98th Oscars will be held March 15 and will air on ABC, hosted by Conan O\u2019Brien. This week\u2019s updated Oscar predictions are below.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWarner Bros.<\/p>\n

\n\tBest Picture: \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler<\/p>\n

\n\tDirector: Ryan Coogler, \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\n\tActor: Michael B. Jordan, \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\n\tActress: Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d (Focus Features)<\/p>\n

\n\tSupporting Actor: Delroy Lindo, \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\n\tSupporting Actress: Amy Madigan, \u201cWeapons\u201d (Warner Bros.)<\/p>\n

\n\tOriginal Screenplay: \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Ryan Coogler<\/p>\n

\n\tAdapted Screenplay: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Paul Thomas Anderson<\/p>\n

\n\tCasting: \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Francine Maisler<\/p>\n

\n\tAnimated Feature: \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong<\/p>\n

\n\tProduction Design: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Tamara Deverell; Shane Vieau<\/p>\n

\n\tCinematography: \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Autumn Durald Arkapaw<\/p>\n

\n\tCostume Design: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Kate Hawley<\/p>\n

\n\tFilm Editing: \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Andy Jurgensen<\/p>\n

\n\tMakeup and Hairstyling: \u201cFrankenstein\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey<\/p>\n

\n\tSound: \u201cF1\u201d (Apple Original Films\/Warner Bros.) \u2014 Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta<\/p>\n

\n\tVisual Effects: \u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d (20th Century Studios) \u2014 Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett<\/p>\n

\n\tOriginal Score: \u201cSinners\u201d (Warner Bros.) \u2014 Ludwig G\u00f6ransson<\/p>\n

\n\tOriginal Song: \u201cGolden\u201d from \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park<\/p>\n

\n\tDocumentary Feature: \u201cThe Perfect Neighbor\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee<\/p>\n

\n\tInternational Feature: \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d (Neon) \u2014 dir. Kleber Mendon\u00e7a Filho<\/p>\n

\n\tAnimated Short: \u201cThe Girl Who Cried Pearls\u201d (National Film Board of Canada) \u2014 Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski<\/p>\n

\n\tDocumentary Short: \u201cAll the Empty Rooms\u201d (Netflix) \u2014 Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones<\/p>\n

\n\tLive Action Short: \u201cTwo People Exchanging Saliva\u201d (Canal+\/The New Yorker) \u2014 Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata<\/p>\n

\n\tProjected winner leaders (films): \u201cSinners\u201d (8), \u201cFrankenstein\u201d (3); \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d and \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d (2)<\/p>\n

\n\tProjected winner leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (12); Netflix (7); Apple Original Films, Neon and 20th Century Studios (1)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With clear eyes and a full heart, Michael B. Jordan took home two Actor Awards (one for Smoke…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":500205,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[88,18924,29506,21959,228193],"class_list":["post-500204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-entertainment","tag-entertainment","tag-michael-b-jordan","tag-oscars","tag-sinners","tag-the-actor-awards"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/500204","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=500204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/500204\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/500205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=500204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=500204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=500204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}