{"id":501518,"date":"2026-03-03T16:16:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T16:16:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/501518\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T16:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T16:16:13","slug":"older-experienced-workers-have-less-cause-for-concern-about-ai-dallas-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/501518\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Older, Experienced Workers’ Have Less Cause for Concern About AI: Dallas Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"

Artificial intelligence hasn’t yet triggered the broad job losses many feared \u2014 at least not for experienced workers<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That’s the takeaway from a new analysis by J. Scott Davis, an assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas<\/a>, who examined employment and wage trends in industries most exposed to artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n

Davis argues the data tell a more nuanced story \u2014 one that’s challenging the traditional career ladder,<\/a> and helping older employees earn a bit more.<\/p>\n

Since ChatGPT’s debut in late 2022, overall US employment has risen about 2.5%, according to Davis’ analysis, which uses an AI exposure index developed by researchers and published in the Strategic Management Journal<\/a>. At the same time, employment in the sectors most exposed to AI has slipped by roughly 1%.<\/p>\n

Wages tell a different story. The average weekly pay nationwide has climbed 7.5% since fall 2022. And across the most AI-exposed industries, wages have grown faster, up 8.5%.<\/p>\n

If AI were simply replacing workers, both employment and wages would likely be falling, Davis wrote.<\/p>\n

Instead, Davis points to a divide between “codified” knowledge \u2014 the kind learned from textbooks and in university courses \u2014 and “tacit” knowledge gained from hands-on work experience.<\/p>\n

“Returns on job experience are increasing in AI-exposed occupations,” Davis wrote. “Young workers with primarily codifiable knowledge and limited experience will likely face challenging job markets.”<\/p>\n

Using Bureau of Labor Statistics data, his analysis found that the occupations most exposed to AI tend to offer larger pay premiums for experienced workers.<\/p>\n

In roles with less hands-on experience, AI exposure is associated with weaker wage growth, he wrote.<\/p>\n

Workers under 25 in AI-exposed industries have also experienced employment declines, according to Davis’ analysis.<\/p>\n

“There appears to be less cause for concern about widespread job displacement for older, experienced workers,” he wrote.<\/p>\n

A less dire picture\u2026 so far<\/p>\n

The findings offer a counterpoint to the more apocalyptic predictions about AI’s impact on the labor market.<\/p>\n

Last week, Citrini Research published a memo<\/a>, written from the hypothetical perspective in 2028, that theorized how AI could crush the US jobs market and trigger a broad-based market collapse.<\/p>\n

“What if our AI bullishness continues to be right…and what if that’s actually bearish?” the memo asked.<\/p>\n

Top executives inside the AI companies are worried about jobs, too.<\/p>\n

Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, the company that runs Claude, warned that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level<\/a> office jobs. OpenAI’s head of product, Olivier Godement, said the life sciences, customer service, and computer engineering industries were all about to get automated<\/a>. And Boris Cherny, the creator of Claude Code, said that he doesn’t believe the job title “software engineer”<\/a> will exist next year.<\/p>\n

For now, at least, the Dallas Fed paints a different picture of today’s jobs market. It points to less mass displacement and market ruptures \u2014 and more power for employees who already have their foot in the door.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Artificial intelligence hasn’t yet triggered the broad job losses many feared \u2014 at least not for experienced workers.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":501519,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[182,181,507,74],"class_list":{"0":"post-501518","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-artificial-intelligence","8":"tag-ai","9":"tag-artificial-intelligence","10":"tag-artificialintelligence","11":"tag-technology"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/501518","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=501518"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/501518\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/501519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=501518"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=501518"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=501518"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}