But the upside of a prolonged Oscar race has meant some unexpected late drama. Think about the same movies long enough, and minds can change. For months, Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/a> sailed through awards season, picking up prize after prize. But the wins for \u201cSinners\u201d and Michael B. Jordan at Sunday\u2019s Actor Awards<\/a> \u2014 along with some other recent developments \u2014 have given the Oscar race what Smoke or Stack might call fresh blood. <\/p>\n An Academy Awards that had looked like a runaway might be a close call, after all. With Oscar voting ending Thursday, let\u2019s survey the top categories<\/p>\n Best Picture <\/p>\n WHERE THINGS STAND<\/p>\n \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d has won at the Golden Globes<\/a>, the BAFTAs<\/a>, the Producers Guild<\/a> and the Directors Guild<\/a>. But its nearly unblemished record was shaken up at Sunday\u2019s Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards), where \u201cSinners\u201d took the top prize. You\u2019d have to have quite a few rounds at the \u201cSinners\u201d juke joint to convince yourself that anything else has much of a chance. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Andy Jurgensen, from left, Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, and Paul Thomas Anderson (AP Photo\/Alastair Grant)<\/p>\n Andy Jurgensen, from left, Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, and Paul Thomas Anderson (AP Photo\/Alastair Grant)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n WHAT HAS THE EDGE<\/p>\n The tea leaves are strongest for Anderson\u2019s \u201cOne Battle After Another.\u201d The Producers Guild, which uses a preferential ballot like the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences does, is among the most predictive of bellwethers. Their winners have matched the last five years and in eight of the last 10 years. <\/p>\n The actors guild best ensemble prize, on the other hand, has a shaky track record. In the last 31 years, the SAG winner has matched the Oscar champ only 15 times. The win for \u201cSinners,\u201d though, came right in the midst of Oscar voting. It was a good time to show out. So this race feels close to a coin flip, with a Warner Bros. movie on both sides. The awards season resume makes \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d the front-runner. But \u201cSinners,\u201d even with a record-setting 16 Oscar nominations<\/a>, gets to play the underdog.<\/p>\n Best Actor<\/p>\n WHERE THINGS STAND<\/p>\n This has been one of the most competitive and hard-to-call races of the season. Look at Leonardo DiCaprio. He gives one of the best performances of his career, in the best picture favorite, and he\u2019s still a long shot. Instead, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet<\/a> was widely perceived as in the lead after early wins at the Globes and the Critics Choice Awards for his frenetic performance in \u201cMarty Supreme.\u201d But the BAFTAs muddied the waters (Robert Aramayo, not in the Oscar mix, was the unexpected winner). And \u201cSinners\u201d star Michael B. Jordan, much to his surprise, won at the Actor Awards. <\/p>\n WHO HAS THE EDGE<\/p>\n Chalamet\u2019s maybe meta campaign, full of swagger and braggadocio, rubbed some voters the wrong way. At the same time, many in the academy felt the 30-year-old should have won last year, for his Bob Dylan in \u201cA Complete Unknown\u201d \u2014 a year when he won with the actors guild but lost to Adrien Brody (\u201cThe Brutalist\u201d)<\/a> at the Oscars. Chalamet will hope the reverse happens this year. But the academy is notoriously resistant to rewarding young stars. Jordan, 39, isn\u2019t much older. But it now suddenly feels like his moment. <\/p>\n Best Actress<\/p>\n WHERE THINGS STAND<\/p>\n Since the fall festival launch of \u201cHamnet,\u201d Jessie Buckley<\/a> has been the favorite. She\u2019s won at the Globes, the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards. Her closest competition is probably Rose Byrne, who won at the Globes in the comedy\/musical category for \u201cIf I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You.\u201d <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Jessie Buckley (Photo by Jordan Strauss\/Invision\/AP)<\/p>\n Jessie Buckley (Photo by Jordan Strauss\/Invision\/AP)<\/p>\n Add AP News on Google <\/p>\n Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.<\/p>\n Share<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n WHO HAS THE EDGE<\/p>\n This one\u2019s easy. Fortunes have fluctuated in most of the top categories, but Buckley has been entrenched as the front-runner for months. <\/p>\n Best Supporting Actor<\/p>\n WHERE THINGS STAND<\/p>\n Sean Penn, a two-time Oscar winner, has done nearly no campaigning, yet he finds himself the favorite after winning at the Actor Awards and the BAFTAs. But several other nominees remain in the mix. Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd<\/a> (\u201cSentimental Value\u201d) won at the Globes and is the kind of widely-liked veteran actor the academy likes to reward. But so is Delroy Lindo (\u201cSinners\u201d), who was a surprise Oscar nominee. In the eyes of many, Lindo has quickly joined the contenders.<\/p>\n WHO HAS THE EDGE<\/p>\n Penn\u2019s recent wins put him clearly in the lead, and he might stay there. But this remains a category rife with possibilities. The academy\u2019s strong international leanings should help Skarsg\u00e5rd. And it wasn\u2019t an accident that when \u201cSinners\u201d won best ensemble at the Actor Awards, Lindo gave the acceptance speech. <\/p>\n Best Supporting Actress<\/p>\n WHERE THINGS STAND<\/p>\n This category has been all over the map. Teyana Taylor (\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d) won at the Globes. Wunmi Mosaku (\u201cSinners\u201d) won at the BAFTAs. And Amy Madigan (\u201cWeapons\u201d) won at both the Actor Awards and the Critics Choice Awards. <\/p>\n![\"Andy](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1772593328_362_.jpeg\")
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