{"id":502494,"date":"2026-03-04T04:10:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T04:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/502494\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T04:10:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T04:10:09","slug":"the-impact-of-the-middle-east-war-on-the-world-economy-in-three-graphs-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/502494\/","title":{"rendered":"The impact of the Middle East war on the world economy in three graphs \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

On Monday, the markets were trying to work out what the war meant for shares, energy prices and the world economy. By Tuesday it was clear that they did not like what they were seeing. <\/p>\n

Gas and oil prices, which were already on the rise, headed further into territory which \u2013 if sustained \u2013 indicate a nasty hit to prices and inflation. <\/p>\n

Shares, having not done too much on Monday, when the US S&P 500 even finished higher, have now turned significantly downwards, with European markets seeing the biggest falls since the aftermath of US president Donald Trump<\/a>\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d announcement on tariffs last April.<\/p>\n

Much now depends not only on how the war spreads, but also on how long it lasts. If the war is over in a few weeks, then the wider economic impact will be limited. But if it drags on, then the economic damage will be a lot more serious. If, for example, oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) could not move through the Strait of Hormuz for a prolonged period \u2013 or there is serious damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf region \u2013 then the impact on international inflation and growth would be significant. <\/p>\n

A move late on Tuesday by US president Donald Trump who said the US navy would escort tankers carrying oil and LNG and a US agency would provide insurance for them appeared to calm share markets and may knock on to lower energy prices on European markets on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Gas\"Charts\"EUR\/MWh <\/p>\n

Gas prices are one of the most vital indicators to watch. LNG from the Gulf tends to head east to countries such as China and India, with Italy the largest European buyer. However, world shortages increase bidding for what is available and lead to a general increase in prices. And as a key fuel in generating electricity and fuelling businesses, gas has a significant economic impact \u2013 its price rise was responsible, for example, for some of the inflationary surge following the Russian invasion of Ukraine<\/a>. Then European prices peaked briefly at more than $300 per megawatt hour, but for the second half of 2022 generally remained well over $100. <\/p>\n

Now warning signs are flashing again as prices have risen by 85 per cent-plus over the past couple of days and on Tuesday midmorning were around $60 per megawatt hour, before easing a bit in late European trading to $54. An Iranian attack on the Qatari Ras Laffan production facility on Monday \u2013 leading to a halt in output \u2013 together with the inability to ship LNG through the Strait of Hormuz, has rattled nerves. Qatar is the leading supplier in the region, accounting for 20 per cent of world supply, and while LNG is responsible for only about 7 to 8 per cent of world gas production, these supplies are still vital in a tight market. <\/p>\n

The next key marker will be how gas markets do on Wednesday after Trump\u2019s new move to try to safeguard supply.<\/p>\n

Oil\"Charts\"$ per barrel <\/p>\n

Oil prices are also on the rise again and as we know can feed through quickly to petrol and heating oil. Brent crude, the key international measure, closed at above $80 per barrel in European markets, up about 15 per cent since last week. Analysts believe it could top $100 soon enough if the conflict drags on. International oil stocks could be released to remove some of the immediate pressure but again a lengthy disruption could mean trouble. Reports late on Tuesday of a closure of most Iraqi oil production will add to market nerves. Again, the reaction on Wednesday to Trump\u2019s comments late on Tuesday could see prices ease, at least initially.<\/p>\n

Stocks\"Charts\"<\/p>\n

Stock markets are being hit on Tuesday by the energy scares and by general signs that the conflict is spreading across the region, with implications for shipping, air transport and, of course, the region itself. The key reason is straightforward \u2013 higher energy prices hit many companies and are also a cost to countries who are net importers. They threaten both higher inflation and lower growth \u2013 so-called stagflation as it has been called in the past. Of course a quickish end to the conflict would remove these fears, but nobody knows how this will play out. Most of the big European markets were down a hefty 3 per cent-plus on Tuesday, as reflected in the drop on the Stoxx Europe 600 index which measures the fortunes of the biggest European players. In Dublin the Iseq<\/a> index closed down 2.6 per cent.<\/p>\n

European share markets may be steadier at Wednesday\u2019s opening following the revival late on Wall Street on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, government bond prices are also falling due to fears about the inflation outlook, pushing longer-term interest rates higher. A prolonged war would lead to fears of a period similar to that which followed the invasion of Ukraine, when equity and bond prices were both falling \u2013 hitting pension funds \u2013 and interest rates were rising, hitting borrowers. We are not there yet, but the outlook for 2026 is now a lot more nervous. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On Monday, the markets were trying to work out what the war meant for shares, energy prices and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":502495,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,12,101,228964,2562,199031],"class_list":{"0":"post-502494","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-donald-trump","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-iseq","12":"tag-israel-iran-conflict","13":"tag-ukraine-crisis"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/502494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=502494"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/502494\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/502495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=502494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=502494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=502494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}