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Elon Musk declared today that Tesla will be \u201cone of the companies to make AGI\u201d and \u201cprobably the first to make it in humanoid\/atom-shaping form.\u201d It\u2019s the latest in a long string of grand AI predictions from the Tesla CEO.<\/p>\n
The problem is that Musk has been making similar claims about AI breakthroughs for years, and he has been wrong every single time. Now, with Tesla\u2019s sales declining for a second consecutive year and earnings crashing, this looks like yet another attempt to attach Tesla to the AI hype cycle.<\/p>\n
A pattern of wrong AI predictions<\/p>\n
Musk\u2019s relationship with AI timelines follows a predictable pattern: make a bold prediction, miss it, then quietly push the goalpost forward.<\/p>\n
In 2023, Musk claimed that Tesla cars had \u201ca mind\u201d and that the company had figured out \u201csome aspects of AGI.\u201d<\/a> In 2024, he predicted AGI would arrive by 2025. When 2025 came and went without AGI, he pushed the timeline to 2026. Earlier this year, he declared that \u201cwe have entered the Singularity\u201d and that \u201c2026 is the year of the Singularity.\u201d<\/p>\n \tAdvertisement – scroll for more content<\/p>\n Now, he\u2019s claiming Tesla specifically will be among the first companies to develop AGI \u2014 in \u201chumanoid\/atom-shaping form\u201d through its Optimus robot program.<\/p>\n This is the same playbook Musk has used with Tesla\u2019s self-driving promises. He first announced in 2016 that all Tesla vehicles had the hardware necessary for full self-driving. From 2019 through 2025, he claimed every single year that Tesla would deliver the capability by year\u2019s end. It never happened. As we documented in our year-end review, Musk\u2019s top 5 Tesla predictions for 2025 didn\u2019t happen<\/a>. Tesla\u2019s \u201cRobotaxi\u201d fleet in Austin still consists of roughly 30 vehicles, most of which aren\u2019t in operation most of the time and still require safety monitors inside the cars.<\/p>\n Even on hardware, the promises don\u2019t hold up. In November 2025, Musk was hyping Tesla\u2019s 8th generation AI chip while he still hadn\u2019t delivered on the self-driving promises made for the 3rd generation chip<\/a>. In January 2026, he said the AI5 chip design was \u201calmost done\u201d \u2014 six months after claiming it was \u201cfinished\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n Tesla\u2019s business tells a different story<\/p>\n While Musk talks about AGI and the Singularity, Tesla\u2019s actual business is deteriorating.<\/p>\n Tesla delivered 1.63 million vehicles in 2025, a 9% decline from 2024<\/a> \u2014 marking the second consecutive year of falling deliveries. Revenue declined roughly 3% to $94.8 billion, the first year-over-year revenue drop in the company\u2019s history. Earnings per share fell an estimated 33% from the prior year.<\/p>\n In Q1 2025, Tesla missed big on already terrible expectations<\/a>, with profits dropping 71%. In Q2, earnings were down 23%<\/a>. By the end of 2025, the decline in sales was confirmed to be accelerating<\/a>.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, BYD delivered 2.26 million EVs in 2025, overtaking Tesla as the world\u2019s largest EV maker. Tesla\u2019s market share is eroding in Europe \u2014 with sales plunging 48% in Germany and 40% in France \u2014 and in China, where domestic competitors continue to gain ground.<\/p>\n Despite all of this, Tesla\u2019s stock still trades at a massive premium over every other automaker, with a market capitalization of roughly $1.5 trillion. That valuation is entirely predicated on the idea that Tesla is not a car company but an AI and robotics company. It\u2019s the narrative Musk needs to maintain at all costs.<\/p>\n The xAI conflict<\/p>\n The AGI claim is also complicated by Musk\u2019s own actions. For years, he sold Tesla investors on the promise that the automaker would be the world\u2019s leading real-world AI company. But then he founded xAI, a private AI company he controls, and began shifting AI resources and talent away from Tesla<\/a>.<\/p>\n Tesla investors sued Musk for breach of fiduciary duty, alleging he used Tesla\u2019s resources and reputation to build xAI\u2019s infrastructure. As we reported, xAI has told its own investors it will build the AI for Tesla\u2019s Optimus robot \u2014 meaning the AI that is supposed to justify Tesla\u2019s premium valuation may not even be developed in-house.<\/p>\n Just yesterday, we covered how Musk\u2019s xAI data center is undoing Tesla\u2019s climate work<\/a> \u2014 all in the name of AI. It\u2019s a tangled web of conflicts.<\/p>\n Electrek\u2019s Take<\/p>\n This is Elon Musk\u2019s desperate attempt to attach Tesla to the AI bubble \u2014 a bubble that Tesla shareholders haven\u2019t really enjoyed, given that the stock has mostly traded sideways over the past three years when you account for the volatility.<\/p>\n We\u2019ve been tracking Musk\u2019s AI and self-driving promises for years, and the pattern is unmistakable. He makes a bold prediction, the deadline passes, and he moves on to the next thing. In 2023, it was \u201cTesla cars have a mind.\u201d In 2024, it was \u201cAGI by 2025.\u201d In 2025, it was the Singularity. Now it\u2019s Tesla making AGI in \u201catom-shaping form\u201d \u2014 whatever that means.<\/p>\n As Tesla\u2019s sales decline, revenue drops for the first time ever, and earnings crash, Musk is always looking for the next shiny object for investors to focus on. Robotaxis didn\u2019t materialize. Optimus can\u2019t reliably serve popcorn. The vague AI promises in Master Plan Part 4<\/a> haven\u2019t translated into products. So now it\u2019s AGI.<\/p>\n The uncomfortable truth is that there is no consensus in the AI research community on when, or even if, AGI will be achieved in the near term. There\u2019s not even a clear, agreed-upon definition of what AGI means. But Musk keeps making these declarations with unearned certainty, and the financial media keeps amplifying them, because it\u2019s good for clicks and good for Tesla\u2019s stock price, at least temporarily.<\/p>\n Tesla shareholders would be better served if Musk focused on reversing the company\u2019s sales decline and building competitive vehicles instead of posting about the Singularity on X.<\/p>\n
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