{"id":505609,"date":"2026-03-05T17:30:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T17:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/505609\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T17:30:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T17:30:10","slug":"fantasy-baseball-busts-2026-pete-crow-armstrong-jackson-merrill-among-rotoworld-staff-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/505609\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy Baseball Busts 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jackson Merrill among Rotoworld staff picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fantasy baseball draft season is here and the Rotoworld Baseball staff is busy digging into potential value picks and and players to fade this season. After unveiling our sleeper picks last week<\/a>, this time we\u2019re talking about busts. <\/p>\n

Now, we\u2019re well aware that the term \u201cbust\u201d is an extreme one. The very nature of it leads to debate and discussion, sometimes unpleasant ones. But the most useful way to think about a bust is someone who is unlikely to justify their ADP (average draft position) for a given season. We\u2019ve collected our staff picks for 2026, so feel free to check them out below. <\/p>\n

\u26be\ufe0f Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026<\/a>! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, \u201cOpening Day\u201d and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.<\/p>\n

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\"Seattle<\/p>\n

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Everything you need for 2026 fantasy baseball draft season.<\/p>\n

\u26be 2026 Fantasy Baseball BustsOzzie Albies 2B, Braves<\/p>\n

People still view Ozzie Albies as a top-10 second baseman? How? Why?<\/p>\n

I will grant that Albies finished as last year\u2019s 11th- or 12th-most valuable second baseman, but that was accomplished in 667 plate appearances. Only Luis Arr\u00e1ez had more among second-base eligible players, and on a per-game basis, Albies wouldn\u2019t have ranked in the top 30. It was also only Albies\u2019 third healthy season of the last six. He hit a career-low .240, putting him under .260 for the fourth time in five years. He\u2019s eclipsed a .310 OBP in just one of those seasons, so he doesn\u2019t belong anywhere near the top of Atlanta\u2019s lineup. His 16 homers came with just 25 barrels. Albies ranked in the 10th-20th percentile of major leaguers in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, bat speed, chase rate and xwOBA. It\u2019s hard to imagine him excelling in any fantasy category at this point. Maybe he\u2019ll be average enough in four of them to maintain a little value, but there are at least 20 second basemen who offer more upside than he does. – Matthew Pouliot<\/p>\n

Jackson Merrill OF, Padres<\/p>\n

The player that I believe is still being way over-drafted and will wind up being among the biggest busts this season is Jackson Merrill. Yes, Merrill had an outstanding rookie season and exceeded even the loftiest of expectations. He came crashing back down to earth during his sophomore season though and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned going forward. One is the spike in his strikeout rate from 17% as a rookie to 22.4% in 2025. That\u2019s still not a bad rate in and of itself, but his exceptional plate control was one of the main reasons that he was a major asset in batting average during his rookie season. Merrill also saw his quality of contact metrics decline, with his exit velocity and max exit velocity each dropping by almost one mile per hour. That\u2019s not what you\u2019d expect to see from a 22-year-old. Maybe the injuries played a role, but it\u2019s still concerning. My biggest worry though is simply that he stopped running. After swiping 16 bases in 19 attempts as a rookie, Merrill had just one theft in three attempts during the 2025 campaign. It\u2019s possible that new skipper Craig Stammen wants to be ultra-aggressive on the basepaths and unleashes Merrill again, which would unlock his upside, but until we see it, I don\u2019t think I can buy in — especially at his current price. – David Shovein<\/p>\n

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\"Syndication:<\/p>\n

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From breakout arms to post-hype hitters, our staff highlights undervalued draft targets for 2026 fantasy baseball leagues. <\/p>\n

Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, Cubs<\/p>\n

Obviously, there are reasons to be excited about a player like Crow-Armstrong. He was a 30\/30 player in 2025 and legitimately in the MVP conversation in the middle of the season. And while the power\/speed combination is intriguing on top of the fact that his exceptional defense is going to keep him in the lineup every day, there\u2019s reason to be concerned. He hit just .216 with a .634 OPS after the All-Star break, and he was essentially a platoon player with just a .594 OPS against southpaws with an ugly 55\/5 K\/BB ratio. He\u2019s one of the least patient hitters in baseball, and teams seemed to figure out that if you throw fastballs outside of the strike zone, Crow-Armstrong would beat himself. The chance for another 30\/30 season makes him intriguing and it\u2019s worth pointing out that he\u2019s still just 23 years old until the end of March, but those who take him in the first four rounds have better be prepared to take the bitter with the better. – Christopher Crawford<\/p>\n

Nolan McLean SP, Mets<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not selecting Nolan McLean here because I don\u2019t like him, but because I don\u2019t see him being able to match the value he\u2019d need to pay off his current ADP in NFBC 12-team drafts, which is 89th overall and SP23. Yes, McLean had a 21.3% K-BB% last year and has a 95 mph sinker that he can pound the zone with; however, I\u2019m not so sure the strikeout upside is as good as everybody is anticipating. For starters, his 12% SwStr% last year was about league average, and that fell to just 10.6% against right-handed hitters. That\u2019s because his primary secondary pitch to righties, his sweeper, which he threw 32% of the time to them, had just a 5.8% swinging-strike rate. That\u2019s, um, not good. I do like that he has six pitches and three fastball variations, and I like his general approach, but I\u2019m concerned by the lack of a true out pitch against righties. Right now, you\u2019re paying a price as if he\u2019s a finished product when there are many areas in which he needs to show improvement. – Eric Samulski<\/p>\n

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\"MLB:<\/p>\n

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Kyle Tucker crashes the top 10 and outfield-bound Yordan Alvarez tumbles a few spots in the updated top 300.<\/p>\n

Oneil Cruz OF, Pirates<\/p>\n

Cruz remains a human highlight reel, capable of feats of strength that would make Frank Costanza pound the table in approval. He produced five of the nine hardest-hit balls in baseball last season and led the majors with a 95.8 mph average exit velocity \u2014 numbers that suggest raw power almost beyond comprehension. And yet, he hit just 20 home runs \u2013 84th in the majors \u2013 and his .200 batting average was the lowest of any big-league regular. Yes, he swiped 38 bases to lead the National League, but a sub-.300 on-base percentage places a natural ceiling on how often those opportunities materialize. He\u2019s also struggled mightily against left-handed pitching and graded out poorly defensively despite his rare athletic gifts.<\/p>\n

The talent is undeniable; the volatility is unavoidable. Cruz feels like the kind of player who can tilt a fantasy league \u2014 or derail a roster \u2014 which is exactly why using a top-100 pick on him requires a tolerance for chaos that not every fantasy manager possesses. If Cruz slides into a platoon role because the splits never stabilize, and the on-base issues persist, you\u2019re suddenly looking at a player who doesn\u2019t hit enough homers to justify the power promise or steal enough bases to offset the batting-average drag. At that point, the highlight reel remains intact, but the fantasy returns are diminishing. – George Bissell<\/p>\n

Zach Neto SS, Angels<\/p>\n

The power-speed combination is incredibly sought after. That\u2019s why Zach Neto\u2019s ADP has drifted towards the top-25<\/a>. It\u2019s partially unwarranted though. According to ATC (which averages many projection systems together), the only players projected to match Neto\u2019s 27 home runs and 27 stolen bases are Jazz Chisholm Jr., Julio Rodr\u00edguez, Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez, and Bobby Witt Jr. On that alone, Neto\u2019s ADP makes some sense. Yet, his power projection could be called into question a bit. His bat speed is just pedestrian compared to other 30-homer bats and he finds the stands by pulling a high rate of his fly balls.<\/p>\n

To maximize this strength, Neto moved up in the batter\u2019s box last season and in turn, made contact further out in front. His quality of contact metrics shot up in response and made his power breakout feel real. At the same time, Neto brought similar aggressiveness to his swing decisions. Pitchers grew more careful and threw him fewer pitches in the zone. He responded by more often swinging earlier in the count and swinging harder when he did so. This was an impressive series of adjustments and Neto has gotten better every year he\u2019s been in the big leagues. That often makes us think development will be linear. Maybe it will be and he makes me look silly writing this. Or, there\u2019s some paper tiger elements to his approach and it\u2019ll be up to him to adjust again. He doesn\u2019t have strong on-base skills to fall back on or a decent enough supporting cast to ensure his runs and RBI stay in range of where we expect a fringe top-25 pick to wind up should the power regress. – James Schiano <\/p>\n

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Fantasy catcher depth is ‘lightyears beyond’ past<\/p>\n

Eric Samulski and James Schiano unpack the top-ranked players, potential breakouts, and busts at the catcher position ahead of 2026 fantasy drafts, including Cal Raleigh, Ben Rice, and many more.<\/p>\n

Ceddanne Rafaela OF\/2B, Red Sox<\/p>\n

There seems to be plenty of excitement around Red Sox centerfielder Ceddanne Rafaela after he hit 16 homers with 20 steals while slashing .249\/.295\/.414 across 587 plate appearances. While his strikeout rate did improve, some red flags remain that have me wary of pressing the draft button at his current cost. He still swung outside the zone an awful lot, with a 41.2% chase rate. With just a 4.8% walk rate, his plate discipline still leaves a lot to be desired. He did see a light improvement in his barrel rate, but only 17 of his 40 barreled balls were pulled, leading me to question how much of his power he can realize until he adjusts his batted ball profile. Then there\u2019s the question of counting stats if he\u2019s hitting at the bottom of the Boston lineup. A repeat is in play, but he\u2019d have to do more than that to justify his rising ADP. – Jorge Montanez<\/p>\n

Spencer Strider SP, Braves<\/p>\n

Things didn\u2019t go according to plan for Strider last year in his return from UCL surgery, as he posted a disappointing 4.45 ERA over 23 starts with the lowest strikeout percentage of his career, but there was still some reason for hope with a full offseason to work on things. Most notably his fastball, which averaged just 95.5 mph last season and was hammered to the tune of a .294 batting average and a .472 slugging percentage. Strider has begun to sprinkle in a curveball in recent seasons, but he still relies heavily on his four-seamer and elite slider. The shape of his fastball has been a key component of his success over the years, but the velocity is important to track. His spring debut didn\u2019t do much to allay fears of fantasy managers, as he averaged 93.1 mph with his four-seamer. Yes, it\u2019s possible he\u2019s just easing into things, but it\u2019s not what you want to hear for a pitcher who is going on the fringes of the top-100 in mixed fantasy leagues. – D.J. Short<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Fantasy baseball draft season is here and the Rotoworld Baseball staff is busy digging into potential value picks…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":505610,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[363,99],"class_list":["post-505609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/505609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=505609"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/505609\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/505610"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=505609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=505609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=505609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}